Icing The Hype
Aug 31, 2008
Latest Science Debunks Hurricanes and Global Warming Link

Compiled by Marc Morano

Before the media starts predictably linking Hurricane Gustav and Hannah to man-made global warming a sampling of a few of the most recent studies should easily silence such chatter. See below report.

1) July 25, 2008 - M.I.T. Scientists: Warming Will Actually Reduce Number of Hurricanes American Meteorological Society report contradicts claim tropical activity increases due to climate change.

2) Recent U.S. Senate report featured latest science on Hurricane and climate link. See full report here/

3) Prominent hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel reconsiders global warming’s impact and Scientist refutes his own theory, finds warming does not increase hurricanes - Excerpt: Emanuel was not disappointed that the research seemed to undercut his old results. “One gets used to being mistaken, and we follow the evidence and sometimes the evidence is contradictory and then we have to sort it out.”

4) ) Another hurricane expert reconsiders view: Study says global warming not worsening hurricanes = Meteorologist Tom Knutson: Excerpt: What makes this study different is Knutson, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s fluid dynamics lab in Princeton, N.J. He has warned about the harmful effects of climate change and has even complained in the past about being censored by the Bush administration on past studies on the dangers of global warming. He said his new study, based on a computer model, argues “against the notion that we’ve already seen a really dramatic increase in Atlantic hurricane activity resulting from greenhouse warming.”

5) Other scientists like Hurricane expert Dr. Bill Gray and Dr. Chris Landsea have steadfastly refuted the alleged warming hurricane link. Excerpt: By suggesting a marked decrease in activity, the new work bolsters the views of Chris Landsea, science and operations officer at the National Hurricane Center, who has argued that the apparent recent increase in Atlantic storm counts is due solely to better observational tools - satellites and the like - which blanket coverage of the Atlantic hurricane basin. “After taking into account the changes in monitoring, the number of storms we’re seeing now is on par with previous busy periods in the Atlantic,” Landsea said.

6) A recent issue of Journal of Climate showing there is little or no evidence of an increase in hurricane numbers or intensity. Paper Excerpt: Little evidence was found that mean individual storm intensity has changed through time, but it is noted that the variability of intensity has certainly increased. Any increase in cumulative yearly storm intensity and potential destructiveness is therefore due to the increasing number of storms and not due to any increase in the intensity of individual storms. Full study here. The paper was authored by Climate statistician Dr. William M. Briggs, who specializes in the statistics of forecast evaluation, serves on the American Meteorological Society’s Probability and Statistics Committee and is an Associate Editor of Monthly Weather Review.

See full size latest image here.

Let me add Governor Bobby Jindal is doing an excellent job coordinating the evacuation and safety measures and communicating to his state’s residents the real threat from Gustav. He has equipped the local officials and agencies with satellite communication devices, REFUSED by the prior governor and mayor during Katrina. That left the state’s and federal resources relying on cell phones useless with no cell towers left standing, unable to communicate with each other and coordinate life saving efforts. Buses sat empty. This time buses and trains were busy evacuating people who have bar codes wrist bands, so they can be tracked. We hope the storm will turn a bit more west as many of the models suggest and the track stays further south though the storm is 400 miles wide so there will be major impact on the state.

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