Isaac Orr, Townhall
Anti-fracking activists who have been eagerly awaiting the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) Science Advisory Board (SAB) findings on hydraulic fracturing must feel like those kids who rush downstairs to open their presents on Christmas morning, only to find out Santa gave them socks. Instead of determining hydraulic fracturing, commonly called fracking, to be dangerous, as the activists hoped, SAB essentially confirmed the conclusions of EPA’s draft study, which found no evidence hydraulic fracturing has had widespread or systemic impacts on groundwater resources but wants EPA to show more data to back up these claims.
Fracking opponents had been hoping SAB would recommend the headline conclusion “hydraulic fracturing had not led to widespread, systemic impacts on water quality” be removed from the report. Instead, SAB stated if EPA retains this conclusion, it should provide a quantitative analysis that clearly supports the claim fracking is not having a widespread impact on water resources. This statement amounts to what our math teachers always told us: “I don’t care if you have the right answer, show your work.”
This is exactly the sort of recommendation a science advisory board should make, because in science, one cannot simply show the conclusion without explaining the methodology or presenting the evidence that led to that conclusion. And when it comes to fracking, the quantitative evidence shows environmental impacts are rare and the risks associated with this practice are manageable.
Evidence supporting the safety of fracking is abundant. Recent data from the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection found absolutely no confirmed cases of stray methane migration in the Keystone State in 2015 and only five such cases in each of the two preceding years. This comes at a time when thousands of wells were drilled in the state (785 wells in 2015 and 1,373 in 2014). This means, incredibly, 99.77 percent of the wells drilled in Pennsylvania during the past two years have had zero leaks. This is the kind of quantitative analysis that can help people understand the risks associated with fracking.
A study published earlier in 2016 by the University of Cincinnati investigated the impact of fracking on water supplies in five Ohio counties over the course of three years. It found fracking had no effect on the quality of water. Similarly, a study by Yale researchers analyzed the impact of fracking on water supplies and concluded fracking does not contaminate drinking water. There are dozens of other studies that reach similar conclusions, making the hopes of activists who want to ban fracking look, at best, bleak.
It seems as though some of the most vocal opponents of fracking were hoping EPA is so lazy it would decide to retract its headline conclusion rather than supply quantitative evidence to support it. In an interview given for an article published by NPR’s StateImpact, a representative from Food and Water Watch said, “[The new SAB report] makes clear that EPA could scrap the language altogether and avoid this issue of having to quantify widespread systemic impacts.”
If anti-fracking crusaders are so confident additional data would support their position, they wouldn’t need to hope for a lazy EPA.
SAB also encouraged EPA to discuss high-profile cases such as Pavilion, Wyoming and Dimock, Pennsylvania in which the public has expressed specific concerns about potential contamination. In Pavilion, Wyoming, state environmental regulators found EPA did not use proper methods to test for whether fracking had contaminated the water there, and further investigation conducted by the Wyoming Environmental Quality Board concluded fracking chemicals had not contaminated groundwater. In Dimock, Pennsylvania, a jury awarded a large settlement to a family suing a natural gas driller, even though the legal counsel for the family admitted there is no proof fracking fluids had entered the water.
An in-depth discussion of these two case studies would help to inform the public and alleviate the considerable confusion that still exists about whether fracking has impacted drinking water sources in these areas.
SAB was tasked with reviewing EPA’s draft study, which examined over 3,500 sources of scientific information, and providing recommendations. Like all good scientists, SAB effectively said, “Show me the data,” and hopefully, EPA does just that, because people living in areas where fracking is taking place - or could take place in the future - deserve to have a data-driven explanation of the actual risks of fracking, not more misinformation from anti-fractivists.
See how emails expose how green groups colluded with EPA on regulations and even fund raising here.
Heidi Cullen, Climate Evangelist, New York Times
July wasn’t just hot - it was the hottest month ever recorded, according to NASA. And this year is likely to be the hottest year on record.
Fourteen of the 15 hottest years have occurred since 2000, as heat waves have become more frequent, more intense and longer lasting. A study in the journal Nature Climate Change last year found that three of every four daily heat extremes can be tied to global warming.
This map provides a glimpse of our future if nothing is done to slow climate change. By the end of the century, the number of 100-degree days will skyrocket, making working or playing outdoors unbearable, and sometimes deadly. The effects on our health, air quality, food and water supplies will get only worse if we don’t drastically cut greenhouse gas emissions right away.
A reality check shows as usual, Heidi and her cult followers are wrong.
You can see the number of 90F and 100F days and heat waves have declined since the 1930s. Indeed of all the state all-time record highs, 23 occurred in the 1930s, 38 before 1960 and there have been all-time state lows than highs since the 1940s.
You can see the number of 100F days for all stations have declined. But the warmists don’t look at actual data just their models which have failed miserably because their theory is bogus - 100% politically driven.
BTW, the highs and lows are unadjusted data. the graphs they love to show you are adjusted - homogenized by blending the bad data into the good stations instead of adjusting the bad UHI contaminated station data with the accurate rural area. They have inexplicably cooled off the past decades to make cyclical warming more worrisome. They can’t do it with the record highs and lows which reside in too many other places and would expose their devious ways. Pass it on.
This chart says some important things. From a tweet by Roger Pielke Jr.:
A few points:
Relative to GDP, costly weather disasters are going the opposite way of what is being said by people cultivating apocalyptic fear over anthropogenic global warming. For instance, we know that longevity of life is increasing on the planet, but more people are dying now than they did a century ago. Why? Simple: There are more people on the planet. The global population stood at 1.6 billion people in 1900. There are 7.3 billion people today. So, historically, it is true that more people are dying today. It may even be true that more people are affected by bad weather than ever before. In fact, that should be intuitively true since there are close to 5.5 billion more people. But relative to population and property, losses have been decreasing, not increasing!
It is obvious that Al Gore took the Katrina-year-driven anomaly and used it, along with the bulk of the rest of the AGW hysterics, to continue what is a false missive. There is certainly no increase in weather related disaster costs as a proportion of the GDP. Yet no one seems to want to address this or call anyone to account.
The hard fact is that a warming world may lead to less, not more, weather related disasters, though with more people and property in the way every extreme event is capable of causing more damage. Imagine the 1938 hurricane hitting New England today, for example.
But there is a physical reason for why a warming world would mean less, not more, severe weather in the larger picture. The answer lies in where it’s warming and when.
See more of the answers here.
Pierre Gosselin, No Tricks Zone
The oceans (SST) have cooled surprisingly over January to February 2016.
While during other El Nino events like in 2015/16 led to a time-delayed warming of the Earth’s atmosphere - as was the case this year, the global oceans have decoupled themselves from this time-delayed warming and are showing a surprising significant cooling from January to February 2016 when compared to the powerful 1997/98 El Nino event:
Enlarged. The plot from BOB TISDALE shows the course of the SSTA during the powerful 1997/98 El Nino and from 2015/16. The monthly mean SSTA from multiple data suppliers show a surprising drop in global SST in February 2016. Source: Global Sea Surface Temperature Responses to the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Nino Events.
The North Pacific, which since 2014 had been parked off the west coast and known as the warm BLOB, saw the greatest share of the global sea surface cooling. By December 2015 it practically disappeared:
Enlarged. The plot from BOB TISDALE shows the course of the North Pacific SSTA during the powerful 1997/98 El Nino and 2105/16.
Global temperatures fell in March 2016
In March 2016 the global temperatures have shown a clear retreat after their three to four-month highpoint February 2016, time delayed after the El Nino peak at the end of October/start of November 2015. This has also been the case in the tropics as well:
Enlarged . The plot shows the measured/calculated temperature deviation global (black curve) and in the tropics (red curve). After a peak in February 2016, global temperatures have fallen sharply as of 28 March 2016. Source.
Therefore it is fully possible that the global temperatures have already begun to gradually ease back from the previous month’s record high in February 2016, although this was not expected to happen until April: Record warmth in the troposphere in February 2016, Tropical sea surface starts to cool off.
“...With increasing cooling of the tropical sea surface, this means also a gradual cooling of global temperatures will set in by April 2016, which I described here: ENSO update February 2016: El Nino leaving- La Nina arriving...”
Also see the unfalsified facts: “Global Warming” Reality Check February 2016: The global warming “pause” since 1997 continues- RSS 0.94.”
The water masses of the equatorial Pacific over the past months have released a considerable amount of energy into the atmosphere. From the end of October 2015 until the end of March 2016, the upper 300 meters have cooled strongly: by 2.6C.
The plot above shows the course of the temperature anomalies down to 300 meters at the equatorial Pacific. The powerful positive deviations (orange) of the Downwelling-Phase reached their peak at 2.1C deviation at the end of October/early November 2015 and have fallen 2.6C to -0.5C (blue): El Nino leaves and La Nina arrives! Source.
We will have to wait and see to find out whether the global temperature anomalies will go negative already by the end of 2016, similar to what happened with the El Nino event 1997/98 - though the negative global temperature anomaly did not arrive until March 1999, which we saw in the UAH satellite data.
The frequency of warm winter days in the US has been declining for a century. In 1954, almost one fourth of winter days in the US were over 60F, but in 2010 the percent of warm days just over 10%.
Similarly, the frequency of hot summers days has declined. Warmth is becoming a thing of the past in the US.
US Summer Afternoon Temperatures Declining Over The Past 85 Years
Summer afternoon temperatures in the US are declining even faster than winter afternoon temperatures
The frequency of 100 degree days is also down 50% since the 1930s.
The frequency of all time record maximums was much higher during the 1930s
Even the EPA agrees.
In the late 1970s, Leonard Nimoy did this special video. Back then we (including NCAR and the CIA) worried about cooling.
Climate Hustle is making news everywhere!
Last Thursday, the Science, Space, and Technology Committee hearing room of the U.S. House was the prestigious venue for the Capitol Hill premiere of Climate Hustle, and the room was packed. “It is my hope that films like Climate Hustle can help unmask some of the bias and give the American people the facts,” Committee Chairman Lamar Smith asserted.
A pre-film panel discussion featured Governor Sarah Palin, University of Delaware climatologist Dr. David Legates, and film host Marc Morano, and was moderated by Brent Bozell of the Media Research Center. It also included a special video appearance by Bill Nye “the Science Guy.”
The panel will be seen exclusively during Climate Hustle’s one-night national theater event on May 2nd.
Governor Palin made a plea for the restoration of integrity to science. “The science community needs to become less political” she said, “otherwise, it leads us to believe that so many things that [are] coming from scientists could be bogus.” Palin added, “If this is bogus, what else are they trying to tell us, trying to control us around, if they can’t do this one right?”
Media coverage was overwhelming. The event was reported on by more than 200 outlets! Syndicated stories by Associated Press and APTV were picked up nationwide, and made the top of the Drudge Report. Other coverage included The New York Times, Washington Post, Time, CNN, Fortune, Boston Herald, UK Guardian, NBCNews.com, Breitbart News, Fox News, CBSNews.com, the New York Daily News, and many others.
An interview with Governor Palin led off Entertainment Tonight’s The Insider and showed clips of Climate Hustle’s trailer to a national television audience.
A social media brawl about Governor Palin and Bill Nye has also been spilling over everywhere. After Governor Palin stated flat out that “Bill Nye is as much a scientist as I am,” the warming-compliant media rushed to prop him up.
Of course they forgot that CFACT comes to the fray armed with the facts.
Marc Morano reminded everyone that not too long ago Salon.com (totally pro-warming) said
“Bill Nye is not actually a climate scientist. He is a former mechanical engineer turned television entertainer, and now professional edu-tainer.”
And James Delingpole added in a column yesterday in Breitbart that, in his opinion,
when it comes to climate change - indeed the environment generally - Palin has a much more solid grasp of her subject than the overrated kid’s show actor.” Touche!
Climate Hustle lays out the facts and asks the tough questions the global warming campaign does not want any of us to think about. Unfortunately for them the conversation has only just begun!
We can’t wait for May 2nd!
For nature and people too,
President & Co-Founder
P.S. Make sure to get your tickets in advance for the one-night national showing of Climate Hustle on May 2nd. Click here for information on tickets and locations. Make sure to bring a friend!
Writing in Watts Up With That?, geologist Norman Page argues that the fear of unprecedented and dangerous global warming caused by human emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) will abate by about 2020. Using sections of the Fourth Assessment Repot (AR-4, 2007) of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Page points out that the climate orthodoxy does not know how to test for the reliability of the climate models it uses.
Using proxy data for solar variation, Page asserts that the IPCC erroneously attributes changes due to solar variation for temperature change caused by increasing CO2. As such, the models greatly over estimate future warming, or what he calls Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming (CAGW). According to Page, the short-term cooling that is expected to follow the current El Nino is greatly amplified by a long-term cooling caused by a decline in solar activity. We should be seeing this solar cased cooling by 2020.
Page concludes that the reputation of science is being damaged by establishment climate scientists who have made “two egregious errors of judgment in their method of approach to climate forecasting and thus in their advice to policy makers in successive SPMs [Summary for Policymakers]. First, they based their analyses on inherently untestable and specifically structurally flawed models which included many questionable assumptions. Second they totally ignored the natural, solar driven, millennial and multi-decadal quasi-cycles.: Under the current circumstances, useful forecasting is impossible.
“It is fashionable in establishment climate circles to present climate forecasting as a “wicked” problem. [A term used by mathematicians.] I would by contrast contend that by adopting the appropriate time scale and method for analysis it becomes entirely tractable so that commonsense working hypotheses with sufficient likely accuracy and chances of success to guide policy can be formulated.
“If the real outcomes follow the near term forecasts in para 3.3 above [a cooling, found in the article] I suggest that the establishment position is untenable past 2020.This is imminent in climate terms. The essential point of this post is that the 2003 peak in Fig 1 marks a millennial peak which is totally ignored in all the IPCC projections.”
No doubt some will dismiss the evidence presented by Page, simply because he is a petroleum geologist. But this would be similar to dismissing the evidence of plate tectonics presented by petroleum geologists.
[As demonstrated in the court filings by some scientists, the major evidence asserted by the EPA in finding the CO2 can cause dangerous warming cannot be found. Further, the models used by the IPCC, and relied upon by the EPA, greatly overestimate the warming of the lower atmosphere, up to 50,000 feet (15,000 meters). This is where the major greenhouse effect occurs, and any amplification of an increased greenhouse effect from CO2 should occur.]
He describes why the Modern warming is cyclical and continues the downtrend ultimately leading to the next ice age. We are past the peak of the latest interglacial warming with a declining trend for the last 3500 years.
By Anthony Sadar
Headlines hyping Snowzilla, Blizzard for the Ages, Snowcalypse, and such, make for good press and can be quite descriptive, but hyperbole seemed less necessary when I was a youth in the 1960s. And winter weather, even big snowstorms, seemed like just another opportunity to enjoy the outdoors. (Like so many in the DC and NYC area did last month!) It never occurred to us kids to politicize such events. But today, many in the younger generation (that is, significantly younger than me) seem to know how to make political hay out of flakes of snow.
The D.C. area endured a big weather event in January—more than two feet of snow in places and high winds… blizzard conditions! Weather so severe it reminded me of the kind of storm events much more common decades ago in the Northeast. Oh well, it is the middle of winter after all. Sometimes the white stuff falls, and falls hard.
For the champions of climate catastrophe, selective “unique” events like this recent blizzard translate into “extreme weather” surely brought on by manmade climate change.
Championing the claim of meteorological mayhem from people pollution is convenient for two reasons. First, it’s so hard to prove or disprove the long-term cause of any particular stormy episode; and second, every weather event is “unique,” so the mundane becomes the spectacular simply by designation. And, naming a storm (like Jonas) doesn’t make its genesis, development, and trajectory any more familiar.
In reality, the climate has not changed much over the years—at least not much for the promoters of global climate doom. Yet the disaster-monger tactics have changed somewhat, their hysteria has increased a bit, and much more money and politicking have been devoted to their dubious cause. The August 3, 2015 release of the Obama Administration’s Clean Power Plan and the United Nation’s late 2015 Paris climate confab are two of the most recent cases in point. But regardless of high-level machinations, the climate keeps operating as usual, changing in its substantially natural way.
No matter, trusting in the claims of climate catastrophists continues big time! After all, in essence what are far-ranging outlooks of global climate conditions—especially those fine-tuned for local areas? They are at best educated guesses by purportedly really smart people, and as such require trust by lesser entities, including other really smart people who don’t have advanced degrees in climatology.
So, it comes down to trust, and the fact that people will believe what they want to believe, or are compelled to believe.
Yet, what if there are some really intelligent, independent, scientifically-minded folks out there with some impressive credentials, a lot of real world experience, and a dash of objective common sense who question the ability of those other purportedly really smart people to be so utterly certain of their own prophetic powers? Would the input from the really intelligent, independent, scientifically-minded folks have any value in a free society, especially a society required to pay the bill for an enormously expensive gamble that the purportedly really smart people actually know what they’re talking about?
And, we certainly are paying the bill. The federal government alone has poured billions of our tax dollars into research directed at substantiating preformed conclusions that humans are responsible for disastrous climate change and that increased carbon dioxide ("carbon pollution") produces only bad effects. Mounds of money are used to prop-up wind mills and solar collectors in the hope of averting an airy adversary in the form of increased severe weather events. In addition, a boatload of our cash floats efforts to “educate” of the public and students from grade school through graduate school on the culpability of people for climate catastrophe.
Like the giant financial institutions, the “climate-industrial complex”—as former U.S. Environmental Protection Agency senior analyst Alan Carlin and others have dubbed it—has now supposedly become “too big to fail.”
But, are we investing wisely? Are there bigger issues out there in the real world that demand our serious financial attention and compassionate focus—issues that pose a bigger threat to humans and the ecosystem than some potential uptick in temperature levels or increase in snowfall depths? Two big threats topping the list are terrorism and abject poverty, both quite destructive to people and the planet, both within the means of our nation to greatly alleviate.
I am just one professional of the likely thousands that work in the atmospheric-science and related fields every day that see tremendous distortion by the news media, environmentalists, politicians, and even governmental bodies like the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of what is and is not known about the earth’s climate. So, I and many of my colleagues continue to challenge the final-form science of contemporary climatology foisted on an unsuspecting public. We advance arguments and insights not as partisan broadsides, but as continued pleas for more open-mindedness and tolerance in a discipline that absolutely necessitates such conditions for its optimal performance.
Be careful not to be blown away by severe winter weather or snowed under by an arrogant atmosphere of climate catastrophe. The bottom line is this: rather than spinning public perception by calling dramatic weather events products of humans living comfortably, as climate catastrophe champions do, authentic science requires that making unsubstantiated pronouncements is antithetical to professional practice. No amount of wintertime blizzard, political-year bluster, or endless consensus conceit will change that.
Anthony J. Sadar is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and author of In Global Warming We Trust: Too Big to Fail (Stairway Press, 2016).