Weather officials around the world still declare the Pacific Ocean as in a neutral phase, but the atmospheric pattern in the region for weeks has been, in fact, of a La Nina event. After the moderate to strong La Nina event of the last boreal winter, the waters warmed somewhat in all four Nino regions during this year. In this second half of 2008, the Southern Oscillation Index monthly values skyrocketed to reach numbers not seen since the strong Nina of 1988. The North Pacific remains very cold and the PDO, according to the University of Washington, is negative for 15 months in a row. Subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific reach even -5C near the surface and the cooling trend continues.

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See heat content in tropical Pacific reflect recooling.

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Climate forecast models predict La Nina conditions during the first months of 2009 and some even point to a moderate cool event. The overall pattern in the Pacific will probably cool the globe further or maintain the recent level of global temperature early in 2009. It seems the Earth temperature will not present a marked rise in the near future, so the initial months of 2009 may be a continuation of the “near flat line” of this decade with a cooling trend not ruled out. Besides that, the sun is still in quiet mode and the minima period gets more astonishing every day we count of lowered activity. Based on the best estimates, apocalypse by global warming will be cancelled again in 2009, at least in the first half of the year, as models disagree on a warming trend of the Pacific later in 2009.

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