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Tuesday, January 19, 2021
Energy costs will skyrocket as Socialists take over energy policy

By Joseph S. D’Aleo, CCM

Just hours after an inauguration took place, executive orders are issued to stop the Keystone Pipeline and to rejoin the Paris Accord - which is just an attempt to extort money from countries like the US while allow other volunteer countries like China to set a goal to join to pay in a decade or more or never. The U.S. has the cleanest air in the world thanks to natural gas, while the green countries use coal to keep the lights on and have poorer air quality. The Paris Accord is just another leftist wealth transfer program.

We are told that major changes to our energy policies are necessary to move away from carbon based fossil fuels to wind and solar to save the planet from carbon pollution and resulting catastrophic climate changes. We are told that green energy will save us money because the sun and wind are free and that removing carbon dioxide from the air will save lives. Each of these claims are easily proven wrong with real world examples. The science is seriously flawed and the policies produce the exact opposite, costly even dangerous results.

What is ignored is the lack of long term global data to make any reasonable assessment. Data before the 1980s was primarily in the US and Europe and parts of Australia and very little data in the oceans which cover 71% of the globe.

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The first attempts to assess global trends recognized that data was an issue and the analysis was confined to northern hemisphere land areas (mostly U.S. and parts of Europe). It showed strong warming and then a corresponding cooling trend during the period from the 1880s to 1970s.

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The number of stations increased in the 20th century though they increasingly were located in urban areas or nearby airports subject to local urban heat island contamination.
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You see in the U.S. high density data set with the longest history of record, the temperatures changed in the same direction with CO2 only 40% of the time.

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After 1980s satellites began sensing ocean surface temperatures when clouds permitted and later after 2000 a network of global buoys provided real time accurate ocean temperature. It was the first time we could claim true global coverage but other problems developed and models were incorporated and when you combine varied data with models, there is opportunity for mischief. We discussed the global data issues here and long ago here.

A rigorous peer reviewed analysis here failed to find that the steadily rising atmospheric CO2 Concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 13 critically important temperature time series analyzed.

The climate changes in multidecadal and longer cycles related to the sun and oceans and influenced by volcanism. As for claims that extremes of weather are increasing as the earth warms, they can be easily refuted with real world data and natural factors as we did here.

One of the biggest threats to our countries economy will be skyrocketing energy costs and through that further loss of jobs, with the economy already reeling from shutdowns and COVID and radical rioting related small business failures. In this country, the previews of this is in the states with early green energy commitments and carbon reduction or hidden taxes. California is the best known example but the northeast (red on the table) with the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative show the highest electricity prices by far.

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Globally our countries average electricity prices are lowest with the heavily invested green countries up to 5 times higher. Renewable states are subject to brownouts and blackouts (California leads the states as blackouts are implemented during wildfire threats). Globally blackouts and brownouts are common as the wind and sun are not reliable. The high cost of electricity drives industry to countries like China and India where costs are low because they use coal, reliable and cheap.

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Economist Gabriel Calzada Associate Professor of Economics at the King Juan Carlos University in Spain in 2010 estimated every green job created cost Spain $774,000 in subsidies. But resulted in a loss of 2.2 real jobs. Only 1 in 10 green jobs was permanent.  Industry left and Spain and unemployment rose to 27.5%. In Italy 3.4 real jobs were lost. 

The energy costs are not limited to electricity as the elimination of fossil fuels would lead to a forced transition to electric cars further increasing the demand on electricity. Obama had gasoline prices up to $5 and predicted within 2 years everyone would be driving electric cars with his administration predicting $8/gasoline. Instead thank to fracking and then in 2020 COVID forced work at home, gas prices dropped instead to $2 or lower during President Trump’s term, when we finally achieved true energy independence.

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Many ‘green’ countries were forced to slow or even halt the move to green and build coal plants to provide energy when the sun doesn’t shine or wind blow.

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When the power is out, people are subject to the danger from winter cold. The danger associated with a ‘heat kills’ misdirection is that cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings were published in the Lancet. Many households are said to be in “energy poverty” (25% UK, 15% Germany). The elderly forced to “choose between heating and eating” as they sit in their home in their coats and sweaters.

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Canada, United States and the UK Winter Mortality is very real.

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It is very clear the people who get hurt the most are those who can least afford it. Households with income of less than $20,000/year spend over 40% of their income on energy.

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The Chamber of Commerce’s Global Energy Institute concludes “simply put, a ban on fracking in the United States would be catastrophic for our economy”.

“Our analysis shows that if such a ban were imposed in 2021, by 2025 it would eliminate 19 million jobs and reduce U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by $7.1 trillion. Job losses in major energy producing states would be immediate and severe; in Texas alone, more than three million jobs would be lost. Tax revenue at the local, state, and federal levels would decline by nearly a combined $1.9 trillion, as the ban cuts off a critical source of funding for schools, first responders, infrastructure, and other critical public services.

Energy prices would also skyrocket under a fracking ban. Natural gas prices would leap by 324 percent, causing household energy bills to more than quadruple. By 2025, motorists would pay twice as much at the pump ($5/gallon +).”

In the last few years, the average household thanks to lower taxes, record low unemployment, and cheap energy averaged increases of $4500/year/family. Now the cost due to the new policy driven increases for electricity, heating fuels and gasoline - families will see losses as high as $10,000/year by 2024. Working from home would limit this some for the immediate future but it is clear the forced move to green energy comes with a huge price. This is true even before we consider the huge cost of the materials to build turbines and solar farms. It has been even suggested by a Biden appointee we build the wind and solar plants in the country’s beautiful national parks.

I have influential friends and leaders in many countries in five continents, where the greens have run wild. They envied our country and hoped their countries would see our advantage and adopt our approach. They are shocked our country did not recognize how good we had it. One friend posted on a fellow site: “… We stand at the abyss. A Biden regime will be the end of freedom. Europe and Canada have already fallen far down that “poverty road to Venezuela”. If America falls, there will be nowhere left to run to.”

Posted on 01/19 at 04:16 PM
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Thursday, December 31, 2020
Wayback machine look at early data issue studies

SURFACE TEMPERATURE RECORDS: POLICY-DRIVEN DECEPTION?

This paper was a compilation of analyses relative to the data sets used for formulating and implementing unprecedented policy decisions seeking a radical transformation of our society and institutions. It was necessitated by the extraordinary revelations in the released CRU emails, including the admissions of Ian “Harry” Harris, the CRU programmer. He lamented about

“[The] hopeless state of their (CRU) database. No uniform data integrity, it’s just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they’re found” and “Aarrggghhh! There truly is no end in sight. This whole project is SUCH A MESS. No wonder I needed therapy!” CRU member, Phil Jones, candidly confessed in a BBC interview that “his surface temperature data are in such disarray they probably cannot be verified or replicated.”

This reflects on both NOAA and NASA in the United States. Phil Jones also admits that
“Almost all the data we have in the CRU archive is exactly the same as in the GHCN archive used by the NOAA National Climatic Data Center” and that NASA’s GISS uses the GHCN, applying its own adjustments, as it explains: “The current analysis uses surface air temperatures measurements from the following datasets: the unadjusted data of the Global Historical Climatology Network (Peterson and Vose, 1997 and 1998), United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) data, and SCAR (Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research) data from Antarctic stations.”

The paper is also a natural progression of the ongoing work of the authors, who have focused on actual data instead of models and theories. Anthony Watts put together a volunteer team to do the due diligence the government said it could not afford on the stations and found the vast majority (90%) to be sited poorly by the governments own standards. He has documented issues with the equipment and shelters and he and his Watts Up With That bloggers have documented many station issues created by post-processing of raw data.

Joe D’Aleo was inspired many years ago by association with the father of Climatology, Helmut Landsberg, to study the effects of urbanization and land use changes on microclimates. He has tracked research on data quality issues including station dropout, increasingly missing months and contamination by urbanization and land use changes. Joe has alerted NOAA and the EPA about poor integrity of the data bases.

Also as a contributing programmer/researcher, E.M. Smith has been working with the NOAA Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) and NASA’s GIStemp program for processing the NOAA global data. Smith’s forensic background and skills allowed him to parse the data by country, latitude and elevation characteristics. Watts and Smith are intimately familiar with the poor metadata, which makes the critical analysis of the historical record and data
adjustments challenging or even impossible.

This paper inspired and motivated others toward a more in depth look into the data and methodology - a positive and welcome development long overdue.  CRN was introduced but is now hard to find in useful forms. ARGO Buoys provided the important global ocean data coverage but the data set like other data sets like USHCN v1 that had an adjustment for UHI and new technological advances for getting at other data like UAH/RSS satellite derivations of lower tropospheric temperatures, measure from space of sea levels get ‘adjusted’ to better fit the modelling instead of motivating changes to the theory and GHG models which greatly overdo the natural cyclical warming.

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One of the addendum studies related to the shocking differences for CPK temperatures from the different data sets like raw observations, USHCNv1 with UHI and USHCNv2 with homogenization replacing UHI and GHCN with no UHI.

Posted on 12/31 at 07:42 AM
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Friday, December 25, 2020
The December 18 storm a NESIS event- snow gone for many Northeast… for now

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The December 18th storm had an amazing band of very heavy snow in the arctic air.

Observers in cities and towns in PA, NY and New England:

19 locations reported over 40 inches
126 locations reported over 30 inches
219 reported over 24 inches
456 reported over 12 inches.

Image of storm exiting - leaving a wild mix of cloud bands and snowcover behind.

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NOAA has added the storm to the list as a CAT2 event (3.21 NESIS Score). It ranks 43rd.

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It seems they undercounted some of the the snow amounts in that band where local 40 inches amounts were reported from PA to NH.I believe it MAY have been a CAT 3, but the heaviest missed the urban corridor so I won’t object. It’s all gone already anyway thanks to a Christmas deluge and warmth ahead of a powerful trough. It is a frigid Christmas in the Midwest behind the storm. BTW, a similar thing happened in January 1978 and again in January 1996 when a warm driving rain wiped out deep snows. More fun followed.

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It is likely to make the NESIS list. Our former award winning intern Remy Mermelstein now at Cornell tells me NSSL’s Greg Carbin notes the 20,000 square mile 1 foot or more of snow is most like the Valentine’s Day storm of 2014 a class 3 NESIS event.

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What is Nesis?

NWS describes it:

While the Fujita and Saffir-Simpson Scales characterize tornadoes and hurricanes respectively, there is no widely used scale to classify snowstorms. The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) developed by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini of the National Weather Service (Kocin and Uccellini, 2004) characterizes and ranks high-impact Northeast snowstorms. These storms have large areas of 10 inch snowfall accumulations and greater. NESIS has five categories: Extreme, Crippling, Major, Significant, and Notable. The index differs from other meteorological indices in that it uses population information in addition to meteorological measurements. Thus NESIS gives an indication of a storm’s societal impacts. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact.

NESIS scores are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The diagram below illustrates how NESIS values are calculated within a geographical information system (GIS). The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers. For details on how NESIS scores are calculated at the National Centers for Environmental Information, see Squires and Lawrimore (2006).

The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS)

Overview
While the Fujita and Saffir-Simpson Scales characterize tornadoes and hurricanes respectively, there is no widely used scale to classify snowstorms. The Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale (NESIS) developed by Paul Kocin and Louis Uccellini of the National Weather Service (Kocin and Uccellini, 2004) characterizes and ranks high-impact Northeast snowstorms. These storms have large areas of 10 inch snowfall accumulations and greater. NESIS has five categories: Extreme, Crippling, Major, Significant, and Notable. The index differs from other meteorological indices in that it uses population information in addition to meteorological measurements. Thus NESIS gives an indication of a storm’s societal impacts. This scale was developed because of the impact Northeast snowstorms can have on the rest of the country in terms of transportation and economic impact.

NESIS scores are a function of the area affected by the snowstorm, the amount of snow, and the number of people living in the path of the storm. The diagram below illustrates how NESIS values are calculated within a geographical information system (GIS). The aerial distribution of snowfall and population information are combined in an equation that calculates a NESIS score which varies from around one for smaller storms to over ten for extreme storms. The raw score is then converted into one of the five NESIS categories. The largest NESIS values result from storms producing heavy snowfall over large areas that include major metropolitan centers. For details on how NESIS scores are calculated at the National Centers for Environmental Information, see Squires and Lawrimore (2006).

Table 1: NESIS categories, their corresponding NESIS values, and a descriptive adjective:

CATEGORY NESIS VALUE DESCRIPTION
1 1-2.499 Notable
2 2.5-3.99 Significant
3 4-5.99 Major
4 6-9.99 Crippling
5 10.0+ Extreme

See the list of the storms and links to images of the snowfall here:

RANK.pdf

References:

Kocin, P. J. and L. W. Uccellini, 2004: A Snowfall Impact Scale Derived From Northeast Storm Snowfall Distributions. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 177-194
Squires, M. F. and J. H. Lawrimore, 2006: Development of an Operational Snowfall Impact Scale. 22ndIIPS, Atlanta, GA.

December sees a pop climatologically speaking. It rises to a peak in February with a slow decline as spring approaches.

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Breakdown of NESIS storms by Month

Number of NESIS storms by week of the year.
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Weekly, the second week in December has had 3 such storms, Christmas week has had 5, mid January also has had 5, with 7 to 8 per week in late January to mid February. It drops off some through the first 3 weeks of March then chances are low into April.

Oceans play a role in the development of these storms. A warm Atlantic and also a warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska can combine and make big storms more likely.

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Sea surface temperature anomalies across the world as of Friday December 17. Image provided by WeatherBell.

Number of NESIS storms by year when SSTs are warmer than normal in the Gulf of Alaska.
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These conditions were common since 2007/08.

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Number of NESIS storms by year over the past 12 years.

The last decade was a blockbuster with a total of 29 NESIS events, well ahead of event the snowy 1960s.

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Number of NESIS storms by decade.

DECEMBER AN OMEN?

In the years of NESIS (1956 to 2020), that there were 11 years with a big December event, there were others that followed (1 to 4). You will recognize some of the years. 2000/01 had 2 official storms although March that year really had 2 events back to back for the northern half of New England (4 feet here in southern New Hampshire). Now with blocking (negative AO/NAO) and a stratospheric warming event the storm track will be suppressed with a few to several snow threats the next few weeks. As the strat warm proceeds, and especially if the Aleutian retrogresses west, the path to arctic outbreaks will develop too. Until then it is mainly Canadian polar. Weather forecasting is a little like playing chess.When we had impact events in December, in all years in the NESIS record back to 1956, we had 1 to 4 additional major impact events in the northeast.

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See how temperatures cycle with El Ninos and La Ninas and are currently heading down.

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See how the ocean cycles and solar Flux correlate highly with US temperature (r squared of 0.85 versus just 0.23 for CO2).

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Posted on 12/25 at 02:06 PM
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Saturday, December 19, 2020
Fact Check: Hurricanes Are Not Strengthened by Our CO2 Emissions

BY MADHAV KHANDEKAR AND TOM HARRIS DEC 05, 2020 9:39 PM ET

PJMedia

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NOAA Satellite

Over the past week, media across the world have proclaimed 2020 a record year for hurricanes in the North Atlantic. The culprit? Man-made climate change, of course.

But this is a mistake, not only because the “records” are misleading but also because the causes of hurricanes are natural phenomena over which we have little or no influence.

The New Jersey-based business news channel CNBC provided several examples of the errors. On November 30, they reported: “Research shows that climate change is making hurricanes stronger and more destructive and increasing the likelihood of more frequent major hurricanes.”

The network quoted Penn State University meteorologist Michael Mann, who went even further, asserting that “The impacts of climate change are no longer subtle. We’re seeing them play out right now in the form of unprecedented wildfires out West and an unprecedented hurricane season back East.”

“Things will only get worse if we continue to burn fossil fuels and generate carbon pollution. This current hurricane season lays bare the reasons we must act on climate now,” he added.

Other media sources put the primary blame squarely on man-made global warming, which supposedly has made the Gulf of Mexico warmer and the air more humid thereby making tropical cyclones- called hurricanes in the North Atlantic - more frequent and more intense.

But this is misleading. Dr. Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, explained that “major hurricanes don’t really care whether the Gulf [of Mexico] is above average or below average in temperature.”

Similarly, M. Mohapatra and V. Vijay Kumar of the India Meteorological Department state in their March 2017 research paper that “there is a decreasing trend in the tropical cyclone number over the North Indian Ocean in recent years, though there is an increasing trend in the sea surface temperature.”

So, if not primarily temperature, what does make one hurricane season worse than another?

America’s “hurricane guru,” the late Dr. Bill Gray, emeritus professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, showed that the seasonal hurricane frequency is determined by six factors:

* The rotational tendency, or vorticity, already present in the atmosphere
* Pressure gradients determined by latitude
* Wind shear, the changes in wind speed and direction that occur between layers in the atmosphere. High wind shear can tear storms apart before they form tropical cyclones. Low wind shear allows storms to grow into hurricanes if the other conditions are right.
* Ocean thermal energy
*The rate of change of temperature with altitude
* Relative humidity in the mid-troposphere

This year the sea surface temperature of the Atlantic Ocean has indeed been relatively high (contributing to Dr. Gray’s factors #4 and #6 above) since we are in a warm phase of the natural Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). But the AMO’s origin and the mechanisms directing it are as yet unknown.

Low wind shear (Dr. Gray’s factor #3 above) also played a significant role in this year’s active hurricane season. Wind shear is a natural phenomenon that varies across the globe and is determined by a host of meteorological factors, none of which are under human control. For example, this year’s La Nina event resulted in cool dry air in the Eastern Pacific Ocean with associated relatively high wind shear and so fewer tropical cyclones there. However, La Nina also resulted in low wind shear and trade winds in the Atlantic, thereby allowing more storms to build up into hurricanes.

Regardless, the supposed records being set are, in fact, suspect. Joe D’Aleo, co-chief meteorologist at Weatherbell.com said, “Not every meteorologist believes 2020 holds the record for most named storms. Due to advances in technology, forecasters are able to identify smaller subtropical storms that may have gone unnoticed in the past. Some of this year’s storms should not have been named or would not have been in previous years.”

Christopher Landsea, chief of the tropical analysis and forecast branch at the National Hurricane Center, was cited in the New York Times as saying,

“There has been a lot of hype about the record number of storms and, yes, it’s been a busy year. There have been horrific impacts. But is this really a record? The answer is no.”

D’Aleo points out that this conclusion is supported by the trend in annual North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE, a metric used to express the energy of tropical cyclones during a period of time). The following graph shows that 2020 was 13th in ACE levels since 1851.

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Commenting on the fact that the ACE trend in the Pacific is only 50% of normal in 2020, D’Aleo said, “For the northern hemisphere [it] was 80% of normal. So even with the hyper Atlantic season. GLOBALLY we were BELOW average.”

Next D’Aleo showed the following graph of landfalling (on the continental U.S.) hurricanes, and concluded that “the decadal trend for landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes has been down.” The last decade was the second quietest decade for both landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes.

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The global warming/hurricane connection completely falls apart when one looks more closely at the observational data.

For example, it was during the 1945-77 global cooling period, when ocean temperatures worldwide were undoubtedly lower than today, that we witnessed stronger hurricanes than now. For example, Hurricane Camille, the second-most intense tropical cyclone to strike the U.S. on record, slammed into Mississippi as a category 5 (the strongest) hurricane on August 18, 1969, producing a storm surge of 7.3 meters.

The most powerful tropical cyclone on record worldwide was not recent either. Immediately following a cooling period, the 2,200 km-wide “Super Typhoon” Tip, the strongest ever, made landfall in southern Japan on October 19, 1979 (Irma was 680 km across; Harvey 400 km). And the deadliest tropical cyclone was in the Bay of Bengal November 12-13, 1970, when the earth’s mean temp was decreasing. Sadly, it killed an estimated quarter-million people in East Pakistan, which is now Bangladesh.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, the biggest storm surge worldwide was 13 meters at Bathurst Bay, Queensland, in 1899. Some contemporary accounts assert the surge was 14.6 meters, or almost the height of a 50-story building. During the warmer 20th and 21st centuries, no tropical cyclone was strong enough to generate a surge greater than 10 meters.

The fact that hurricanes and other tropical cyclones are not caused, or even significantly enhanced, by man does not give us an excuse to do nothing about them, however. Florida and Texas need to engage in “vertical evacuation” by building multi-story storm shelters that allow residents to take refuge above the storm surge, instead of today’s ineffective “horizontal evacuation,” forcing people to flee the waves on clogged highways. The U.S. should look to India’s storm shelter network for an example of success in this regard - no one need walk more than one kilometer anywhere on India’s coast to get to a shelter. If India can afford it, why not the U.S.?

It is time to develop improved early warning systems and more storm shelters. Concerning ourselves with carbon dioxide emission reduction is a wasteful distraction and will have no impact on future hurricane strength or frequency.

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See the Alarmist claim rebuttal review of the hurricane season of 2020 here and similarity to the late 1800s here and all 13 Alarmist claims here

This work was done and being updated pro-bono. Your help of course is much appreciated - safe and secure Paypal

Posted on 12/19 at 11:57 AM
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Friday, December 18, 2020
Its a Wonderful Life

2020 has been a dark period and the holiday will not be the same. We can look back to past happier memories in more normal times. One holiday favorite was the old movie from 1946, It’s a Wonderful Life, a story of the ups and downs in a man and families life.

It’s a Wonderful Life and story

Like many of you, one of the films I like to watch seasonally is Its a Wonderful Life, from Frank Capra who produced many classic movies. The snow scenes look like upstate New York or New England in winter.

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It may surprise you that the Bedford Falls set, according to Life.com: “It covered four acres of the RKO ranch [in Encino, Calif.] and included 75 stores and buildings, a tree-lined center parkway with 20 fully grown oak trees, a factory district and residential areas. Main Street was 300 yards long, or three full-length city blocks.”

The snow was fake snow. Frank Capra - who trained as an engineer - and special effects supervisor Russell Shearman engineered a new type of artificial snow for the film. At the time, painted cornflakes were the most common form of fake snow, but they posed a bit of an audio problem for Capra. So he and Shearman opted to mix foamite (the stuff you find in fire extinguishers) with sugar and water to create a less noisy option.

Here were the fans that blew the snow over the set.

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The film was done in the the summer I was born and filming at times occurred during a heat wave, which forced them to shut down for days. Though they were romping in what looked like snow, they were perspiring.

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Though not popular in its day, the movie became a holiday favorite on TV and ranked number one on its list of the most inspirational American films of all time.

One more note: when I was watching It’s a Wonderful Life and saw someone playing the rent collector for Potter (Lionel Barrymore) who looked very familiar.

It was Charles Lane - here was a photo of him.

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Charles Lane was an amazing man who appeared in 250 movies for over 80 years and lived to 102 years of age!!!! He is very much the actor extraordinaire. See the incredible list here.

He looked familiar. It occurred to me, he was the spitting image of John Podesta, Clinton and Obama advisor.

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Posted on 12/18 at 09:11 AM
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Wednesday, April 15, 2020
COVID19 models - a lesson for those who blindly trust climate scientists

The beneficial gas CO2 is demonstrated by Dr Craig Idso from CO2 Science, an organization trusted by NOAA to be a center that displayed US station data prior to the development of NCDC/NCEI.

Junk models using fraudulent data have been used to try and convince the world CO2 is bad and we need to rid it by eliminating all fossil fuels which output CO2.

Dr. Patrick Moore, Ecologist and co-founder of Greenpeace shows this also.

See how ice core data exposes the big lie about man made unprecedented warming.

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Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

The models used to estimate U.S. deaths from COVID19 had projections that ranged from over 2 million two months back to 100,000-240,000 and then down to 60,000. Most hoped they would come down further, but the numbers blew past the 60,000. A lot of uncertainty exists in the data still though as an unknown number of the deaths attributed to COVID19 may really have been due to other morbidities and also some point out health care institutions are financially better off with a COVID19 cause of death.

The media seemed perplexed about the large changes in the models and questioned their concept and value. Welcome to the world of modeling (see this comparison).

We in the weather business use models as a tool and they present special challenges. We have a plethora of models to choose from which run 2 to 4 times a day or even on a smaller scale hourly. Operational model forecasts go out to as far 16 days into the future. The models are subject to large errors especially in the latter periods when storms are coming inland from data sparse regions like the Pacific. We have a favorite phrase - garbage in, garbage out.

The climate model story is even worse. The climate models overstate the warming from greenhouse gases by a factor of two or more.

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Climate model forecasts versus the satellite and balloon observations

The models projected the greatest warming in the tropical high atmosphere (called the Tropical Hot Spot) where air in the mean rises due to convergence of air from both hemispheres. But the models warming results mostly from the release of heat from condensation of water vapor (95% of the greenhouse effect). CO2 is a trace gas, just 0.04% of the atmosphere by volume.

See no warming trend in the upper atmosphere since 1979 where models predict it.

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The lack of warming also holds for the tropical Pacific ocean down to 300 meters depth from 160E to 80W.

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Climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf in DER SPIEGEL actually admits quietly that the models are crap, running way too hot here.

HOW THEY DEAL WITH LACK OF REAL DATA AT GROUND LEVEL

The lack of warming is documented by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s U.S. Climate Reference Network, an extremely accurate network of temperature stations throughout the United States that requires no corrective adjustments. (It began reporting temperature data in 2005.) When climate activists claim specific impacts of global warming in the United States, those impacts could not have been caused by any recent warming because no significant recent U.S. warming has occurred.

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On a global scale the climate cabal portray the output from their models as gospel, and the believers confuse the model projections with measured data. The data centers make unsubstantiated claims that a given month or year is the warmest back to the beginning of the record (1880 or even 1850) often by the tiniest of margins (0.05C for example).

But the data is just not there to make those claims.

71% of the earth is oceans, and data before the satellite data became available 40 years ago, ocean data was reliant on ships which travelled along specific routes mainly in the northern hemisphere near the land.

A large percentage of land surface was erratically covered with observing sites and the data too often spare and intermittent.

To create an apparent agreement with their sacred models, the data centers manipulated real data or even generated with their models data for 95% of the planet that had poor coverage before the satellite era.

MIT’s climate scientist Dr. Mototaka here exposed the phoney claims that most years are the warmest ever since the 1850s of 1880s.

“The supposed measuring of global average temperatures from 1890 has been based on thermometer readouts barely covering 5 per cent of the globe until the satellite era began 40-50 years ago. We do not know how global climate has changed in the past century, all we know is some limited regional climate changes, such as in Europe, North America and parts of Asia.”

The world’s greatest scientists in the 1970s knew that and created the first view of global trends by using land temperatures where available in the Northern Hemisphere. It showed a 2F warming from 1880s to around 1940 and then a cooling that by around 1970s cut that by more than half. Further cooling until the late 19870s virtually eliminated the rest.

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These early measurements were erased when models and global land (and ocean) data was ‘created’ in the following decades. The models cooled the early data and enhanced the warming to create an apparent steady warming during the eras when fossil fuel use increased. Our conclusion is that there is man made global warming but the men are in NOAA, NASA and Hadley.

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By the way, the ocean data coverage and accuracy did not really become reliable until the implementation of the ARGO buoys in 2000 designed to accurately measure temperatures and ocean heat content. Like the satellite used to measure sea level changes (which showed no changes - until artificial adjustments were made), the early results were disappointing - showing no warming. The ARGO data supported the inconvenient near two decade pause in the warming that started in the late 1990s.

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Eventually in desperation ahead of the Paris Accord, they made this go away by adjusting the buoy data to match to inferior ship data.

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The models are tuned to manipulated (fraudulent) data. In addition to what we have shown above, this can be seen when you examine all the extremes of weather that these models and the theories predict. See here how each of the claims have failed.

SUMMARY

COVID19 has shown how major the impact on the global population a pandemic can bring. A Green New Deal wasn’t developed in a lab, but is as bat shit crazy and would have a major impact on life as we know it. The effect on our economy would not be as sudden but just as serious. The government would not be sending you checks in the mail to help but driving up the cost of energy, and the cost of living and the choices you make (cars you drive, where you can live, how much you can make and keep). Because it is based on junk science, we need to dispatch it as quickly as we can the COVID19.

See much more on this issue in this presentation in front of New Hampshire Taxpayers.

(See this comparison of climate models to COVID19 models).  And go to this must see video on the fraud behind COVID19.

Posted on 04/15 at 05:27 PM
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Tuesday, March 17, 2020
Climate change accused of being deadlier than Covid 19 - Fact check

By Joe Bastardi |March 17th, 2020|Climate|6 Comments

This is a classic example of what I am trying to show, that this “climate change” issue is more than meets the eye, It is about using any tactic possible to push an agenda that is regressive and seeks to LIMIT what man can do, rather than expand.  This article tries to scare the daylights out of people who are already scared, with an implication not supported by any facts today, We are all anxious about the unknown with this virus, so here we go, the predictable use of climate to scare people even more.  But the facts are clear on climate over the last 100 years, the results on mankind are EXACTLY OPPOSITE. Which is even more remarkable given the growth of human life

I guess if the Covid-19 completely fizzles out, which is also a possibility, then anything that happens in the weather globally over the next 20 years that is blamed for deaths, means perhaps it would outstrip it, But the facts reveal that man’s adaptation via freedom, competition, and capitalism, which is leading the way, is saying the EXACT OPPOSITE is happening!

And that journalist that are writing things like this choose to ignore the facts, or have not researched it enough to see another side, speaks volumes as to the amount of trust one should put into any agenda that involves narrow-minded one-sidedness

Instead of writing thousands of words I will use a few choice charts, What I want to know, is why the people that write this stuff do not have the intellectual curiosity or the journalistic integrity to do what journalists are supposed to do: Question and show both sides of the issue.  It is because of the lack of those qualities, we are reading what we are reading

So here we go, In direct defiance of what is implied in the above article, Climate deaths are plummeting.

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Now why, if you knew this, would you write what you did?  Why did you not look at least for the countering argument?

Now watch this. Personal GDP globally and Life expectancy globally:

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This means MORE PEOPLE ARE LIVING LONGER AND PROSEPERING MORE!  When did this hockey stick like skyrocket start? At the start of the fossil fuel era.

Now consider this, and do not think this is minimizing the COVID 19 threat, The median age of deaths is in the low 80s. But if this virus appeared in the pre fossil fuel era, it may have gone virtually unnoticed BECAUSE of LIFE EXPECTANCY IN PRE FOSSIL FUEL ERA was between 30 and 40.

From this article, the chart below:
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The ramping up to the current levels can be linked if not directly, then indirectly to the advancement of mankind in the fossil fuel era.

When one reads anything, including what I write, one needs to look at both sides, The fact is that the vast majority of articles written on this matter do not bring up countering points, and use the assumption that there is no counter, or someone is a science denier.  Yet charts like this show that people saying that are denying facts that any 5th grader ( I use 5th grade since that population age group and around is getting the wits scared out of them with climate change) can see.  What is being done today though in articles like the one that spawned this counter, is to make statements that run contrary to what has been going on, with no thinking beyond a set agenda? When you are narrow-minded, your field of vision is extremely limited and what is being revealed in a lot of things has to do with this subject is the narrow mindedness and intolerant views of people who should be doing the opposite, if they are indeed journalists.

In this case, not only do the facts about climate deaths and the advancement of mankind run contrary to what is being implied but the fact that IF NOT FOR THE INCREASE IN LIFE EXPECTANCY brought about with the help of the fossil fuel era, then this viruses impact, if the median age of death is in the low 80s, may not have even been noticed in the late 19th century since life expectancy was about half of what it is today.

As always, I ask the rational reader to consider the other side of the issue.  And remind people, as per the previous piece I wrote, to be on guard against any event being blamed on “climate change” for “climate change” is actually a vehicle for another result.  At the very least, consider the actual data presented here. And all you journalists that are using all the great tools we have today try to look at both sides of the issue, You might come to realize that where you stand today was built yesterday and the fossil fuel era and the freedoms we enjoy, is in a large part responsible for the foundation we have built to give you the chance.  Don’t take that for granted, Question in all you do. Facts like what I have shown above, indicate that there is a reason to look at both sides of an issue. Be open-minded and tolerant, and don’t accuse those that bring up ideas you may not have seen, of being someone they are not (example Climate Denier). But writing scare articles using what is admittedly a scary virus, and then saying, “climate change” is something worse, without even showing people where we are today on the matter and the actual data, is not being open-minded nor tolerant of contrary ideas.

Author

Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore - and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore.

Posted on 03/17 at 07:50 PM
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Tuesday, February 04, 2020
On the fatal flaw of climate alarmism

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Introduction

NOAA and NASA can be counted on virtually every month or year end to religiously and confidently proclaim that the latest global average surface temperature (GAST) is among the warmest on record. Back in the 1970s when an assessment of a global temperature was first attempted, the scientists recognized that even land-only surface temperature data was a significant challenge given that most of the reliable data was limited to populated areas of the U.S, Europe and eastern China with just spotty often intermittent data from vast land areas elsewhere.

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There were just 26 stations in 1880, only 4 in the southern hemisphere. Even in 1900, the 664 global stations was on 2.8% of the number in 2000.

Temperatures over oceans, which covered 71% of the globe, were measured along shipping routes mainly in the Northern Hemisphere erratically and with varying measurement methods.  Despite these shortcomings and the fact that absolutely no credible grid level temperature data existed over the period from 1880 to 2000 in the Southern Hemisphere’s oceans (covering 80.9% of the Southern Hemisphere), global average surface temperature data estimation and publication by NOAA and NASA began in the early 1990s.

To illustrate the problem, on January 16, 2020, the WSJ published a lead article by Robert Lee Hotz stating: “NASA, NOAA ranked 2019 as the second-hottest year in tracking data to 1880. The world experienced near-record global temperatures in 2019, federal climate scientists said. ---.” This claim was made despite the fact that absolutely no credible temperature data exists over this period for more than 40% of the planet (0.5*0.809 =0.4+).

After 2000, there were diving buoys. But when the best technology designed specifically for the purpose, the ARGO buoys, disappointed by showing no upward trend, the data from the buoys was “adjusted.” John Bates, data quality officer with NOAA admitted “They had good data from buoys...and “corrected” it by using the bad data from ships. You never change good data to agree with bad, but that’s what they did - so as to make it look as if the sea was warmer.” He retired after that change was made.

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That was just the latest example of data manipulation. Initially, this global data had a cyclical pattern similar to previously reported Northern Hemisphere data (high in the 1930s and 40s, low in the 70s).  Then, as time progressed, the previous officially reported GAST data history was modified, removing the cycle and creating a more and more strongly upward sloping linear trend in each freshly reported historical data set. 

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Peer reviewed, published and readily reproducible research has shown that: “The conclusive findings were that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality.”

“In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, which removed their cyclical temperature patterns are completely inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, despite current assertions of record-setting warming, it is impossible to conclude from the NOAA and NASA data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever.”

Current climate policies - based on these unreliable temperature records - threaten our economic and national security interests. As the proposed climate policies grow more extreme, the consequences of allowing this record to remain unchallenged gravely threatens an onslaught of litigation based on the greenhouse gas endangerment finding. Importantly, this litigation imposes significant impediments to the mineral land leasing and pipeline infrastructure build out necessary to maintain and enhance energy independence and economic prosperity.

Furthermore, the US financial sector has already dramatically curtailed its support of conventional energy source development in large part due to the continued calls for regulatory destruction of the fossil fuel industry based substantially on NOAA and NASA’s now invalidated global surface temperature records. This situation is putting our Nation’s energy security at grave risk ‘ which means our economic and national security are also in great peril.

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ADDENDUM to the Research Report entitled: On the Validity of NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU Global Average Surface Temperature Data & The Validity of EPA’s CO2 Endangerment Finding, Abridged Research Report, Dr. James P. Wallace III, Joseph S. D’Aleo ABD, Dr. Craig D. Idso, June 2017

The June 2017 Research Report provides ample evidence that the Global Average Surface Temperature (GAST) data was invalidated for use in climate modelling and for any other climate change policy analysis purpose.  However, there was one very critical science argument that this report did not make, which is made here.

This critical point involves whether or not it was even possible to compute a mathematically proper GAST data set over the period 1900-2000 in the first place.  Claims of record-setting GAST were made as one of the three Lines of Evidence of the 2009 GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding.  Another Line of Evidence purported that climate models, tuned to fit this GAST data, were adequate for policy analysis purposes.  The third Line of Evidence for validation required credible Surface Temperature data as well.  However, as stated in the aforementioned GAST Research Report:

“The conclusive findings of this research are that the three GAST data sets are not a valid representation of reality. In fact, the magnitude of their historical data adjustments, that removed their cyclical temperature patterns, are totally inconsistent with published and credible U.S. and other temperature data. Thus, it is impossible to conclude from the three published GAST data sets that recent years have been the warmest ever - despite current claims of record setting warming. Finally, since GAST data set validity is a necessary condition for EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding, it too is invalidated by these research findings” (1)

Thus, in this GAST report, ample evidence was provided that the current officially reported GAST data are simply not credible, therefore invalidating the 2009 Endangerment Finding. However, there is a proof that is far easier to understand. Over the period 1900-2000, there is virtually no credible surface temperature data available for at least 40% of the surface of the Earth. This follows from the fact that the Southern Hemisphere’s surface is over 80% ocean (.50*.80=40), and essentially no credible temperature data was captured for these vast oceans over this time period.  (2)

Hence, it never made any sense to even attempt to compute a GAST data set over this time period unless the purpose was to construct a temperature data set that could be made to have virtually any pattern over that time period that the institutions involved desired to portray as reality. In truth, with literally no credible temperature data available for well over 40% of the Earth’s surface, these institutions were only limited by what was credible to the outside world. (3) Thus far, not knowing these facts, all relevant parties, e.g., regulators, environmentalists, and government officials, have been far too accepting of the GAST record as a valid global temperature database. Since GAST data has now been separately proven to not be a valid representation of reality, it also means that the 2009 CO2 Endangerment Finding has been once again invalidated.

Footnotes

(1) GAST Data Research Report - see page 4.

(2) Southern Hemisphere “The South Atlantic, the South Pacific, the Indian Ocean and several seas, including the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand and the Weddell Sea next to Antarctica, constitute approximately 80.9 percent of the Southern Hemisphere. Land constitutes about 19.1 percent. In the Northern Hemisphere, on the other hand, most of the area is comprised of land masses.”

(3) “According to overseers of the long-term instrumental temperature data, the Southern Hemisphere record is “mostly made up”.  This is due to an extremely limited number of available measurements both historically and even presently from the south pole to the equatorial regions

In 1981, NASA’s James Hansen et al reported that “Problems in obtaining a global temperature history are due to the uneven station distribution (40), with the Southern Hemisphere and ocean areas poorly represented,” - - - - (Science, 28 August 1981, Volume 213, Number 4511)

In 1978, the New York Times reported there was too little temperature data from the Southern Hemisphere to draw any reliable conclusions. The report, prepared by German, Japanese and American specialists, appeared in the Dec. 15 issue of Nature, the British journal and stated that “Data from the Southern Hemisphere, particularly south of latitude 30 south, are so meager that reliable conclusions are not possible,” the report says. 
“Ships travel on well-established routes so that vast areas of ocean, are simply not traversed by ships at all, and even those that do, may not return weather data on route. Attempting to compile a ‘global mean temperature’ for 70% of the earth from such fragmentary, disorganized, error-ridden and geographically unbalanced data is more guesswork than science.

As to sea surface temperatures (SST), this data is even more fragmentary than the air temperature readings. Prior to around 1940, SST was collected by throwing buckets over the side of a ship, hoisting it on deck and dipping a thermometer in it. Bucket data is only useful for immediate weather prediction purposes, not for long-term statistical climatic analysis. Any other data collected in such bizarre ways would be laughed out of any other scientific forum.”

“Since the 1980s and 1990s we have satellites to measure SST [22] using infra-red sensors (not to be confused with the MSU instruments which measure the atmosphere). Unfortunately, satellites sensing SSTs in the infra-red can only see the immediate water surface, not the water even a few centimetres deeper. This is because infra-red radiation at these wavebands (around 10 microns) cannot penetrate water at all, and so the satellite can only ‘see’ that top millimetre. This can result in both warm and cool errors. On hot still days, the top centimetre of the ocean surface can be much warmer than waters a few centimetres deeper, similar to the same phenomenon which can be observed in any undisturbed outdoor swimming pool. On windy days, there is no such difference due to wave mixing. There is also an intermittent ’thermal skin effect where the top millimetre of water on calm seas can be up to 0.3C cooler than the water just beneath the ‘skin’ due to evaporation taking place on the surface. For these reasons, SSTs taken from satellites are only accurate to within a few tenths of a degree, adequate for immediate meteorological purposes or detecting an El Nino, but not suited to measuring subtle global climatic changes of a few tenths of a degree.” John Daly

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See the Superbowl of Data Tampering by Tony Heller:

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Posted on 02/04 at 12:03 PM
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Tuesday, January 21, 2020
Renewable Energy Is a Hoax; Alarmist Claim Fact-Checks

Lest we forget -

Progressive Eco-Group Admits It: Renewable Energy Is a Hoax that Benefits its Greenie Elmer Gantries like Al Gore
By John Eidson

Independent physicist John Droz, Jr. alerted me to the website of Deep Green Resistance (DGR), an international environmental organization that calls for the total destruction of what it refers to as the “global industrial economy,” AKA capitalism.  Given the group’s hard-left credentials, its call for dismantling capitalism throughout the world is not surprising.

What is surprising is that in an unusual show of progressive candor, Deep Green Resistance openly acknowledges what skeptical scientists have been saying for more than two decades: that renewable energy is a government-backed hoax that enriches big corporations - and green energy investors like Al Gore - at the expense of taxpayers and the environment.  If you find that admission hard to believe, please keep reading.  The questions and answers below are verbatim from the FAQ page on the organization’s website.

Will green technology save the planet?

No. Wind turbines, solar PV panels, and the grid itself are all manufactured using cheap energy from fossil fuels. When fossil fuel costs begin to rise such highly manufactured items will simply cease to be feasible.

Solar panels and wind turbines aren’t made out of nothing.  They are made out of metals, plastics, and chemicals. These products have been mined out of the ground, transported, processed, manufactured.  Each stage leaves behind a trail of devastation: habitat destruction, water contamination, colonization, toxic waste, slave labor, greenhouse gas emissions, wars, and corporate profits.

The basic ingredients for renewables are the same materials that are ubiquitous in industrial products, like cement and aluminum. No one is going to make cement in any quantity without using the energy of fossil fuels. And aluminum? The mining itself is a destructive and toxic nightmare from which riparian communities will not awaken in anything but geologic time.

From beginning to end, so called “renewable energy” and other “green technologies” lead to the destruction of the planet. These technologies are rooted in the same industrial extraction and production processes that have rampaged across the world for the last 150 years.

We are not concerned with slightly reducing the harm caused by industrial civilization; we are interested in stopping that harm completely. Doing so will require dismantling the global industrial economy, which will render impossible the creation of these technologies.

Will renewable energy save the economy?

Renewable energy technologies rely heavily on government subsidies, taken from taxpayers and given directly to large corporations like General Electric, BP, Samsung, and Mitsubishi.  While the scheme pads their bottom lines, it doesn’t help the rest of us.

Further, this is the wrong question to ask.  The industrial capitalist economy is dispossessing and impoverishing billions of humans and killing the living world.  Renewable energy depends on centralized capital and power imbalance.  We don’t benefit from saving that system.

Instead of advocating for more industrial technology, we need to move to local economies based on community decision-making and what our local landbases can provide sustainably.  And we need to stop the global economy on which renewable energy depends.

“Stopping the global economy” means destroying the capitalist system that created here in America the most widespread prosperity the world has ever known.  That a progressive eco-group would admit that the true agenda behind the push for renewable energy has nothing to do with “saving the planet” and everything to do with destroying capitalism is quite remarkable.  To reinforce its position that renewable energy is a hoax, DGR’s website has a cartoon that shows dollar bills being sucked from a wind turbine directly into the pocket of a fat cat investor in subsidized green energy projects. 

The Elmer Gantry of renewable energy

Few insiders have profited more from taxpayer-backed renewable energy projects than Al Gore.  When he left the vice presidency in 2001, his net worth was estimated at $1 million to $2 million.  Since then, his wealth has skyrocketed to $300 million, and if the climate change legislation he advocates is enacted, the former vice president stands to become a billionaire.  Much of his enviable fortune has come from being an inside investor in government-backed renewable energy projects, many of which went belly up after the insiders made off with millions, leaving hardworking U.S. taxpayers stuck with the bill.

Like all wealthy eco-preachers, the Elmer Gantry of renewable energy uses his immense wealth to indulge in lavish living.  When asked by Rep. Marsha Blackburn during his 2009 testimony before Congress whether he personally profits from his advocacy of global warming, Pastor Al professed a vow of poverty, and if you’ve never seen video of the tense encounter, you don’t want to miss it: “Every penny I have made I have put into a non-profit deal, the Alliance for Climate Protection, to spread awareness of why we have to take on this challenge.  And Congresswoman, if you believe the reason I have been working on this issue for 30 years is out of greed, you do not know me.

Turned out Rep. Blackburn knows him quite well.  As the greedy owner of a gargantuan green energy fortune, Pastor Al looked her squarely in the eye and denied making even a penny of profit.  If every penny he makes goes into a non-profit deal, how did he end up with $300 million?  The same way his alter ego pilfered money from the Lord: by concealing his true stripes.

As the social Utopians at Deep Green Resistance openly acknowledge, the push for a “green economy” is a scam that enriches big corporations and fat-cat investors like Al Gore.  Shortly after teen climate activist Greta Thunberg gave an emotion-charged speech at the U.N. last September, I wrote about the renewable energy hoax in “The Cynical Plot behind Global Warming Hysteria.” If not for a totally corrupt Western media, two things would have happened years ago: man-made global warming theory would have been blown out of the water, and Pastor Al would have been called out as the self-righteous hypocrite he is.

An electrical engineering graduate of Georgia Tech and now retired, John Eidson is a freelance writer in Atlanta.

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Alarmist Claim Rebuttals

Below are a series of rebuttals of the 11 most common climate alarmists’ claims such as those made in the recently released Fourth National Climate Assessment Report.[2] The authors of these rebuttals are all recognized experts in the relevant

For each alarmist claim, a summary of the relevant rebuttal is provided below along with a link to the full text of the rebuttal, which includes the names and the credentials of the authors of each rebuttal.

Heat Waves - have been decreasing since the 1930s in the U.S. and globally Link Check for yourself at the data from the WMO here.

Hurricanes - this decade just ended as the second quietest for landfalling hurricanes and landfalling major hurricanes in the U.S since the 1850s. Link

Tornadoes - the number of strong tornadoes have declined over the last half century. Link

Droughts and Floods - no statistically significant trends. Link

Wildfires - decreasing since the very active 1800s. The increase in damage in recent years is due to population growth in vulnerable areas and poor forest management. Link NASA Earth Observatory shows here that globally fire acreage has declined 25% since 2003

Snowfall - increasing in the fall and winter in the Northern Hemisphere and North America with many records being set. Link

Sea level - the rate of global sea level rise on average has fallen by 40% the last century. Where it is increasing - local factors such as land subsidence are to blame. Link

Arctic, Antarctic and Greenland Ice - the polar ice varies with multidecadal cycles in ocean temperatures. Current levels are comparable to or above historical low levels. Link Link2

Alaska July 2019 heat records - this resulted from a warm North Pacific and reduced ice in the Bering Sea late winter due to strong storms. Record ice extent occurred with record cold in 2012. Link One of the coldest winters on record has followed with increased ice cover has followed.

Ocean Acidification - when life is considered, ocean acidification is often found to be a non-problem, or even a benefit. Link

Carbon Pollution as a health hazard - carbon dioxide (CO2) is an odorless invisible trace gas that is plant food and it is essential to life on the planet. It is not a pollutant..Link

Climate change is endangering food supply - the vitality of global vegetation in both managed and unmanaged ecosystems is better off now than it was a hundred years ago, 50 years ago, or even a mere two-to-three decades ago thanks in part to CO2. Link Video

See the full rebuttal and links to the details here.

See how The Green New Deal Would Be An Environmental Disaster here

Posted on 01/21 at 04:01 PM
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Friday, January 10, 2020
Global climate may improve, but academic gloom seems here to stay

Exposing the lies continues and has now breached the walls of the journal Nature.

Ocean acidification does not impair the behaviour of coral reef fishes (link).

Also

CO2 Emissions, Fossil Fuel Use and Human Longevity (Uploaded 9 January 2020)
by Dr. Craig Idso, CO2 Science

This video segment discusses the fundamental link between CO2 emissions and global life expectancy. It is patently false and borderline fraudulent to claim rising CO2 is enhancing human mortality rates, as many often do, when the data clearly demonstrate there are more people on earth today who are living longer and better lives because of rising CO2 and fossil fuel use…

Read a transcript of this video.

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Anthony Sadar, Meteorologist

College campus climate change crusade

Predictions of climate gloom and doom have gotten more confident and dire with each passing year. But the passing years have not been kind to the certainty of their fruition.

As a new academic semester gets underway at the beginning of this new decade, the college campus is where catastrophic climate change has actually happened over the most recent decades. Like the inception of a violent storm, the destructive change had small beginnings.

The field of climatology in the 1970s, when I was a student of meteorology at Penn State, was rather cloistered, engaged in the tedious work of compiling facts and figures from decades of weather. The science was focused on collecting, analyzing and disseminating data from local, regional and global observations. Weather trends at the time indicated the potential return of ice-age conditions.

In the early 1980s, when the popular notion of an ice age from the 1970s was changing to machinations of the enhanced “greenhouse effect,” some of my university meteorology professors had their serious doubts about the new fervent forecast.

However, their challenges to the envisioned hothouse Earth faded as the fresh disaster paradigm quickly took hold. A new air of superiority was advancing. And with the atmospheric-science spotlight focused on climatology, climate scientists gained popular attention, including those in schools of higher learning, where groupthink can thrive and nurture intolerant stalks of “knowledge”.

Bad vibes from the hollow halls of academia result from perhaps the largest echo chamber on the planet. Still, without the financial fertilization from the deep pockets of Uncle Sam via opportunistic politicians - who can help grow a rudimentary prognostication into an absolute certainty - the runaway greenhouse effect hypothesis would not have gotten too far beyond the parochial greenhouse.

The college campus can be fertile ground for the production of biased views devoid of helpful added nutrients. Researchers whose entire knowledge tree is grown from grade school to grad school to professorship without leaving the schoolyard overlook the perspective found in real world working conditions. They seem to develop a mistrust of, even an adversarial attitude toward, work-a-day scientists who are off school property.

A significant departure from the qualms over out-of-school contributions can be found in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s triennial air quality modeling conferences that are required by the federal Clean Air Act.

The 12th modeling conference held last October in Research Triangle Park in North Carolina showed an example for cooperation. I along with dozens of other air quality modelers from government, consulting and academia all had the opportunity to offer input to the federal government’s efforts to identify the best techniques to represent simulated relationships among pollution sources, dispersion conditions and receptors.

And, yes, scientists who represented industry concerns were treated with the dignity and respect so often signaled, but not practiced, in collegiate circles.

Elsewhere, in private meteorological consulting, Joe Bastardi, an extraordinary weather forecaster and historian that I have known since our student days at Penn State, has demonstrated that so called extreme weather events - events that are promoted as exceptional - can be predicted in advance based on their natural occurrence in history. Joe has shown how understanding of such inclement weather from the distant past (i.e., historic analogs) can lead to more accurate forecasts of the imminent future.

And, if these events can be predicted from their previous occurrence, doesn’t that call into question the claim that these events are somehow unusual and now based on human excesses?

Nonetheless, the promotion of “extreme weather” is a brilliant strategy by those pushing disastrous climate change. After all, everyone experiences such weather.

Weather extremes can become personal proof of disastrous climate change, especially to children who have a limited history of such events. No wonder kids skip class to air their angst in protest and even become passionate enough to be awarded “Person of the Year” recognition.

Fanning the flames of future futility are arrogant academicians along with science gurus, politicians, the media, Hollywood and all sorts of pious personages (holier-than-thou virtue signalers and sanctimonious scolds).

Regardless of the brand of climate crusaders or source of any current turmoil in the troposphere, imagined or real, the actual global climate is likely to change for the better long before the climate brightens on college campuses.

Anthony J. Sadar is a certified consulting meteorologist and author of “In Global Warming We Trust: Too Big to Fail” (Stairway Press, 2016).

Posted on 01/10 at 06:19 AM
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Friday, January 03, 2020
Tim Ball: The Evidence Proves That CO2 is Not a Greenhouse Gas

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DR. TIM BALL

The CO2 error is the root of the biggest scam in the history of the world, and has already bilked nations and citizens out of trillions of dollars, while greatly enriching the perpetrators. In the end, their goal is global Technocracy (aka Sustainable Development), which grabs and sequesters all the resources of the world into a collective trust to be managed by them. ⁃ TN Editor

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) claim of human-caused global warming (AGW) is built on the assumption that an increase in atmospheric CO2 causes an increase in global temperature. The IPCC claim is what science calls a theory, a hypothesis, or in simple English, a speculation.  Every theory is based on a set of assumptions. The standard scientific method is to challenge the theory by trying to disprove it. Karl Popper wrote about this approach in a 1963 article, Science as Falsification. Douglas Yates said,

“No scientific theory achieves public acceptance until it has been thoroughly discredited.”

Thomas Huxley made a similar observation.

“The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, skepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin.”

In other words, all scientists must be skeptics, which makes a mockery out of the charge that those who questioned AGW, were global warming skeptics. Michael Shermer provides a likely explanation for the effectiveness of the charge.

“Scientists are skeptics. It’s unfortunate that the word ‘skeptic’ has taken on other connotations in the culture involving nihilism and cynicism. Really, in its pure and original meaning, it’s just thoughtful inquiry.”

The scientific method was not used with the AGW theory. In fact, the exact opposite occurred, they tried to prove the theory. It is a treadmill guaranteed to make you misread, misrepresent, misuse and selectively choose data and evidence. This is precisely what the IPCC did and continued to do.

A theory is used to produce results. The results are not wrong, they are only as right as the assumptions on which they are based. For example, Einstein used his theory of relativity to produce the most famous formula in the world; e = mc2. You cannot prove it wrong mathematically because it is the end product of the assumptions he made. To test it and disprove it, you challenge one or all of the assumptions. One of these is represented by the letter “c” in the formula, which assumes nothing can travel faster than the speed of light. Scientists challenging the theory are looking for something moving faster than the speed of light.

The most important assumption behind the AGW theory is that an increase in global atmospheric CO2 will cause an increase in the average annual global temperature. The problem is that in every record of temperature and CO2, the temperature changes first. Think about what I am saying. The basic assumption on which the entire theory that human activity is causing global warming or climate change is wrong. The questions are how did the false assumption develop and persist?

The answer is the IPCC needed the assumption as the basis for their claim that humans were causing catastrophic global warming for a political agenda. They did what all academics do and found a person who gave historical precedence to their theory. In this case, it was the work of Svante Arrhenius. The problem is he didn’t say what they claim.  Anthony Watts’ 2009 article identified many of the difficulties with relying on Arrhenius. The Friends of Science added confirmation when they translated a more obscure 1906 Arrhenius work. They wrote,

Much discussion took place over the following years between colleagues, with one of the main points being the similar effect of water vapour in the atmosphere which was part of the total figure. Some rejected any effect of CO2 at all. There was no effective way to determine this split precisely, but in 1906 Arrhenius amended his view of how increased carbon dioxide would affect climate.

The issue of Arrhenius mistaking a water vapor effect for a CO2 effect is not new. What is new is that the growing level of empirical evidence that the warming effect of CO2, known as climate sensitivity, is zero. This means Arrhenius colleagues who “rejected any effect of CO2 at all” are correct. In short, CO2 is not a greenhouse gas.

The IPCC through the definition of climate change given them by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) were able to predetermine their results.

a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over considerable time periods.

This allowed them to only examine human-causes, thus eliminating almost all other variables of climate and climate change. You cannot identify the human portion if you don’t know or understand natural, that is without human, climate or climate change. IPCC acknowledged this in 2007 as people started to ask questions about the narrowness of their work. They offered the one that many people thought they were using and should have been using. Deceptively, it only appeared as a footnote in the 2007 Summary for Policymakers (SPM), so it was aimed at the politicians. It said,

“Climate change in IPCC usage refers to any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity. This usage differs from that in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, where climate change refers to a change of climate that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and that is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.”

Few at the time challenged the IPCC assumption that an increase in CO2 caused an increase in global temperature. The IPCC claimed it was true because when they increased CO2 in their computer models, the result was a temperature increase. Of course, because the computer was programmed for that to happen. These computer models are the only place in the world where a CO2 increase precedes and causes a temperature change. This probably explains why their predictions are always wrong.

An example of how the definition allowed the IPCC to focus on CO2 is to consider the major greenhouse gases by name and percentage of the total. They are water vapour (H20) 95%, carbon dioxide (CO2) 4%, and methane (CH4) 0.036%. The IPCC was able to overlook water vapor (95%) by admitting humans produce some, but the amount is insignificant relative to the total atmospheric volume of water vapour. The human portion of the CO2 in the atmosphere is approximately 3.4% of the total CO2 (Figure 1) To put that in perspective, approximately a 2% variation in water vapour completely overwhelms the human portion of CO2. This is entirely possible because water vapour is the most variable gas in the atmosphere, from region to region and over time.

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Figure 1 Enlarged

In 1999, after two IPCC Reports were produced in 1990 and 1995 assuming a CO2 increase caused a temperature increase, the first significant long term Antarctic ice core record appeared. Petit, Raynaud, and Lorius were presented as the best representation of levels of temperature, CO2, and deuterium over 420,000-years. It appeared the temperature and CO2 were rising and falling in concert, so the IPCC and others assumed this proved that CO2 was causing temperature variation. I recall Lorius warning against rushing to judgment and saying there was no indication of such a connection.

Euan Mearns noted in his robust assessment that the authors believed that temperature increase preceded CO2 increase.

In their seminal paper on the Vostok Ice Core, Petit et al (1999) [1] note that CO2 lags temperature during the onset of glaciations by several thousand years but offer no explanation. They also observe that CH4 and CO2 are not perfectly aligned with each other but offer no explanation. The significance of these observations are therefore ignored. At the onset of glaciations temperature drops to glacial values before CO2 begins to fall suggesting that CO2 has little influence on temperature modulation at these times.

Lorius reconfirmed his position in a 2007 article.

“our [East Antarctica, Dome C] ice core shows no indication that greenhouse gases have played a key role in such a coupling [with radiative forcing]”

Despite this, those promoting the IPCC claims ignored the empirical evidence. They managed to ignore the facts and have done so to this day. Joanne Nova explains part of the reason they were able to fool the majority in her article, “The 800 year lag in CO2 after temperature - graphed.” when she wrote confirming the Lorius concern.

“It’s impossible to see a lag of centuries on a graph that covers half a million years, so I have regraphed the data from the original sources...”

Nova concluded after expanding and more closely examining the data that,

The bottom line is that rising temperatures cause carbon levels to rise. Carbon may still influence temperatures, but these ice cores are neutral on that. If both factors caused each other to rise significantly, positive feedback would become exponential. We’d see a runaway greenhouse effect. It hasn’t happened. Some other factor is more important than carbon dioxide, or carbon’s role is minor.

Al Gore knew the ice core data showed temperature changing first. In his propaganda movie, An Inconvenient Truth he separated the graph of temperature and CO2 enough to make a comparison of the two graphs more difficult. He then distracted with Hollywood histrionics by riding up on a forklift to the distorted 20th century reading.

Thomas Huxley said,

“The great tragedy of science- the slaying of a lovely hypothesis by an ugly fact.”

The most recent ugly fact was that after 1998 CO2 levels continued to increase but global temperatures stopped increasing. Other ugly facts included the return of cold, snowy winters creating a PR problem by 2004. Cartoons appeared (Figure 2.)

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Figure 2 Enlarged

The people controlling the AGW deception were aware of what was happening. Emails from 2004 leaked from the University of East Anglia revealed the concern. Nick at the Minns/Tyndall Centre that handled publicity for the climate story said,

“In my experience, global warming freezing is already a bit of a public relations problem with the media.”

Swedish climate expert on the IPCC Bo Kjellen replied,

“I agree with Nick that climate change might be a better labelling than global warming.”

The disconnect between atmospheric CO2 levels and global temperatures continued after 1998. The level of deliberate blindness of what became known as the “pause” or the hiatus became ridiculous (Figure 3).

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Figure 3 Enlarged

The assumption that an increase in CO2 causes an increase in temperature was incorrectly claimed in the original science by Arrhenius. He mistakenly attributed the warming caused by water vapour (H2O) to CO2. All the evidence since confirms the error. This means CO2 is not a greenhouse gas. There is a greenhouse effect, and it is due to the water vapour. The entire claim that CO and especially human CO2 is absolutely wrong, yet these so-called scientists convinced the world to waste trillions on reducing CO2. If you want to talk about collusion, consider the cartoon in Figure 4.

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Figure 4 Enlarged

Posted on 01/03 at 10:19 AM
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Saturday, December 21, 2019
Merry Christmas

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It has been an up and down year but we are thankful for our many blessings. Thank you for your much needed and appreciated support in 2019. 2020 is a very critical year in our effort to get the science back on the right track. The AMS and AGU are celebrating their 100th Anniversary but after decades of laudable work, they have with off the rails climate folks at NOAA and NASA are presenting dodgy attribution work to keep the money train on the track which endangers our energy dominance/affordability and near full employment. Many companies, even energy and auto, and politicians (democrats and some republicans) are pushing some form of carbon taxes if not abandonment of fossil fuels with plan for unreliable renewables.

Icecap has been here now for 13 years - with 122 million page hits. Be sure to use the Search Icecap function to find previous posts on any topic.

See also our sister sites:

Alarmist Claim Research is a site where a team of scientists has fact checked the 12 common alarmist claims. Be sure to click on the link to the detailed write-ups after the summaries with more detail and graphics here

THSResearch which started with an analysis of the failed GHG climate models projection of the Tropical Hotspot here and the GAST report has been followed by many more analyses here

Then there is a site developed for a roommate engineer at Wisconsin - mainly focused on technology and energy issues (here).

Of course, my focus has been on Weatherbell.com since 2011 - with daily posts on weather and climate and commercial posts and video. We have an excellent model and video service for weather enthusiasts.

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Here is a holiday story:

It’s that time of year for favorite old holiday movies

The movie “It’s a Wonderful Life”, like A Christmas Story are perennial favorites.

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It’s a Wonderful Life was produced by Frank Capra who produced many classic movies. The snow scenes look like upstate New York or New England in winter.

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It may surprise you that the Bedford Falls set was in warm and sunny California: It covered four acres of the RKO ranch [in Encino, Calif.] and included 75 stores and buildings, a tree-lined center parkway with 20 fully grown oak trees, a factory district and residential areas. Main Street was 300 yards long, or three full-length city blocks.

The snow was fake snow. Frank Capra -who trained as an engineer - and special effects supervisor Russell Shearman engineered a new type of artificial snow for the film. At the time, painted corn flakes were the most common form of fake snow, but they posed a bit of an audio problem for Capra. So he and Shearman opted to mix foamite (the stuff you find in fire extinguishers) with sugar and water to create a less noisy option.

Here were the fans that blew the snow over the set.

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Watch animation.

The film was done in the summer I was born and filming at times occurred during a heat wave, which forced them to shut down for days. Though they were romping in what looked like snow, they were perspiring.

Though not popular in its day, the movie became a holiday favorite on TV and ranked number one on its list of the most inspirational American films of all time.

One more note: when I was watching It’s a Wonderful Life last week and saw someone playing the rent collector for Potter (Lionel Barrymore) who looked very familiar.

It was Charles Lane - here was a photo of him.
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Charles Lane was an amazing man who appeared in 250 movies over 80 years and lived to 102 years of age!!!! He is very much the actor extraordinaire. See the incredible list here

It occurred to me, he was the spitting image of John Podesta, Clinton and Obama advisor.
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Posted on 12/21 at 11:08 AM
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Saturday, December 14, 2019
The toxic rhetoric of climate change

Exposing the lies continues and has now breached the walls of the journal Nature.

Ocean acidification does not impair the behaviour of coral reef fishes (link).

Also

CO2 Emissions, Fossil Fuel Use and Human Longevity (Uploaded 9 January 2020)
by Dr. Craig Idso, CO2 Science

This video segment discusses the fundamental link between CO2 emissions and global life expectancy. It is patently false and borderline fraudulent to claim rising CO2 is enhancing human mortality rates, as many often do, when the data clearly demonstrate there are more people on earth today who are living longer and better lives because of rising CO2 and fossil fuel use…

Read a transcript of this video.

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The Toxic Rhetoric of Climate Change

by Judith Curry

“I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. It’s making my sick to my stomach, I’m not eating or sleeping and I’m getting panic attacks daily. It’s currently 1 am and I can’t sleep as I’m petrified.  - Young adult in the UK

Letter from a worried young adult in the UK

I received this letter last nite, via email:

“I have no idea if this is an accurate email of your but I just found it and thought I’d take a chance. My name is Elan I’m 20 years old from the UK. I have been well the only word to describe it is suffering as I genuinely have the fear that climate change is going to kill me and all my family, I’m not even kidding it’s all I have thought about for the last 9 months every second of the day. It’s making my sick to my stomach, I’m not eating or sleeping and I’m getting panic attacks daily. It’s currently 1am and I can’t sleep as I’m petrified. I’ve tried to do my own research, I’ve tried everything. I’m not stupid, I’m a pretty rational thinker but at this point sometimes I literally wish I wasn’t born, I’m just so miserable and Petrified. I’ve recently made myself familiar with your work and would be so appreciative of any findings you can give me or hope or advice over email. I’m already vegetarian and I recycle everything so I’m really trying. Please help me. In anyway you can. I’m at my wits end here.”

JC’s response

We have been hearing increasingly shrill rhetoric from Extinction Rebellion and other activists about the ‘existential threat’ of the ‘climate crisis’, ‘runaway climate chaos’, etc. In a recent op-ed, Greta Thunberg stated: “Around 2030 we will be in a position to set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control that will lead to the end of our civilization as we know it.” From the Extinction Rebellion: “It is understood that we are facing an unprecedented global emergency. We are in a life or death situation of our own making.”

It is more difficult tune out similar statements from responsible individuals representing the United Nations. In his opening remarks for the UN Climate Change Conference this week in Madrid (COP25), UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said that “the point of no-return is no longer over the horizon.” Hoesung Lee, the Chair for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said “if we stay on our current path, [we] threaten our existence on this planet.”

So… exactly what should we be worried about? Consider the following statistics:

Over the past century, there has been a 99% decline in the death toll from natural disasters, during the same period that the global population quadrupled.

While global economic losses from weather and climate disasters have been increasing, this is caused by increasing population and property in vulnerable locations. Global weather losses as a percent of global GDP have declined about 30% since 1990.

While the IPCC has estimated that sea level could rise by 0.6 meters by 2100, recall that the Netherlands adapted to living below sea level 400 years ago.

Crop yields continue to increase globally, surpassing what is needed to feed the world. Agricultural technology matters more than climate.

The proportion of world population living in extreme poverty declined from 36% in 1990 to 10% in 2015.

While many people may be unaware of this good news, they do react to each weather or climate disaster in the news. Activist scientists and the media quickly seize upon each extreme weather event as having the fingerprints of manmade climate change - ignoring the analyses of more sober scientists showing periods of even more extreme weather in the first half of the 20th century, when fossil fuel emissions were much smaller.

So . . . why are we so worried about climate change? The concern over climate change is not so much about the warming that has occurred over the past century. Rather, the concern is about what might happen in the 21st century as a result of increasing fossil fuel emissions. Emphasis on ‘might.’

Alarming press releases are issued about each new climate model projection that predicts future catastrophes from famine, mass migrations, catastrophic fires, etc. However these alarming scenarios of the 21st century climate change require that, like the White Queen in Alice and Wonderland, we believe ‘six impossible things before breakfast’.

The most alarming scenarios of 21st century climate change are associated with the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration scenario. Often erroneously described as a ‘business as usual’ scenario, RCP8.5 assumes unrealistic trends long-term trends for population and a slowing of technological innovation. Even more unlikely is the assumption that the world will largely be powered by coal.

In spite of the implausibility of this scenario, RCP8.5 is the favored scenario for publications based on climate model simulations. In short, RCP8.5 is a very useful recipe for cooking up scenarios alarming impacts from manmade climate change. Which are of course highlighted and then exaggerated by press releases and media reports.

Apart from the issue of how much greenhouse gases might increase, there is a great deal of uncertainty about much the planet will warm in response to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide - referred to as ‘equilibrium climate sensitivity’ (ECS). The IPCC 5th Assessment Report (2013) provided a range between 1 and 6C, with a ‘likely’ range between 1.5 and 4.5C.

In the years since the 5th Assessment Report, the uncertainty has grown. The latest climate model results - prepared for the forthcoming IPCC 6th Assessment Report - shows that a majority of the climate models are producing values of ECS exceeding 5C. The addition of poorly understood additional processes into the models has increased confusion and uncertainty. At the same time, refined efforts to determine values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity from the historical data record obtain values of ECS about 1.6C, with a range from 1.05 to 2.7C.

With this massive range of uncertainty in the values of equilibrium climate sensitivity, the lowest value among the climate models is 2.3C, with few models having values below 3C. Hence the lower end of the range of ECS is not covered by the climate models, resulting in temperature projections for the 21st century that are biased high, with a smaller range relative to the range of uncertainty in ECS.

With regards to sea level rise, recent U.S. national assessment reports have included a worst-case sea level rise scenario for the 21st century of 2.5 m. Extreme estimates of sea level rise rely on RCP8.5 and climate model simulations that are on average running too hot relative to the uncertainty range of ECS. The most extreme scenarios of 21st century sea level rise are based on speculative and poorly understood physical processes that are hypothesized to accelerate the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. However, recent research indicates that these processes are very unlikely to influence sea level rise in the 21st century. To date, in most of the locations that are most vulnerable to sea level rise, local sinking from geological processes and land use has dominated over sea level rise from global warming.

To further complicate climate model projections for the 21st century, the climate models focus only on manmade climate change- they make no attempt to predict natural climate variations from the sun’s output, volcanic eruptions and long-term variations in ocean circulation patterns. We have no idea how natural climate variability will play out in the 21st century, and whether or not natural variability will dominate over man made warming.

We still don’t have a realistic assessment of how a warmer climate will impact us and whether it is ‘dangerous.’ We don’t have a good understanding of how warming will influence future extreme weather events.  Land use and exploitation by humans is a far bigger issue than climate change for species extinction and ecosystem health.

We have been told that the science of climate change is ‘settled’. However, in climate science there has been a tension between the drive towards a scientific ‘consensus’ to support policy making, versus exploratory research that pushes forward the knowledge frontier. Climate science is characterized by a rapidly evolving knowledge base and disagreement among experts. Predictions of 21st century climate change are characterized by deep uncertainty.

As noted in a recent paper co-authored by Dr. Tim Palmer of Oxford University, there is “deep dissatisfaction with the ability of our models to inform society about the pace of warming plays out regionally, and what it implies for the likelihood of surprises."Unfortunately, [climate scientists] circling the wagons leads to false impressions about the source of our confidence and about our ability to meet the scientific challenges posed by a world that we know is warming globally.”

We have not only oversimplified the problem of climate change, but we have also oversimplified its ‘solution’. Even if you accept the climate model projections and that warming is dangerous, there is disagreement among experts regarding whether a rapid acceleration away from fossil fuels is the appropriate policy response. In any event, rapidly reducing emissions from fossil fuels to ameliorate the adverse impacts of extreme weather events in the near term increasingly looks like magical thinking.

Climate change - both manmade and natural - is a chronic problem that will require continued management over the coming centuries.

We have been told that climate change is an ‘existential crisis.’ However, based upon our current assessment of the science, the climate threat is not an existential one, even in its most alarming hypothetical incarnations. However, the perception of manmade climate change as a near-term apocalypse and has narrowed the policy options that we’re willing to consider. The perceived ‘urgency’ of drastically reducing fossil fuel emissions is forcing us to make near term decisions that may be suboptimal for the longer term. Further, the monomaniacal focus on elimination of fossil fuel emissions distracts our attention from the primary causes of many of our problems that we might have more success in addressing in the near term.

Common sense strategies to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events, improve environmental quality, develop better energy technologies and increase access to grid electricity, improve agricultural and land use practices, and better manage water resources can pave the way for a more prosperous and secure future. Each of these solutions is ‘no regrets’- supporting climate change mitigation while improving human well being. These strategies avoid the political gridlock surrounding the current policies and avoid costly policies that will have minimal near-term impacts on the climate. And finally, these strategies don’t require agreement about the risks of uncontrolled greenhouse gas emissions.

We don’t know how the climate of the 21st century will evolve, and we will undoubtedly be surprised. Given this uncertainty, precise emissions targets and deadlines are scientifically meaningless. We can avoid much of the political gridlock by implementing common sense, no-regrets strategies that improve energy technologies, lift people out of poverty and make them more resilient to extreme weather events.

The extreme rhetoric of the Extinction Rebellion and other activists is making political agreement on climate change policies more difficult.  Exaggerating the dangers beyond credibility makes it difficult to take climate change seriously.  On the other hand, the extremely alarmist rhetoric has frightened the bejesus out of children and young adults.

JC message to children and young adults:  Don’t believe the hype that you are hearing from Extinction Rebellion and the like.  Rather than going on strike or just worrying, take the time to learn something about the science of climate change.  The IPCC reports are a good place to start; for a critical perspective on the IPCC, Climate Etc. is a good resource.

Climate change manmade and/or natural along with extreme weather events, provide reasons for concern.  However, the rhetoric and politics of climate change have become absolutely toxic and nonsensical.

In the meantime, live your best life.  Trying where you can to lessen your impact on the planet is a worthwhile thing to do.  Societal prosperity is the best insurance policy that we have for reducing our vulnerability to the vagaries of weather and climate.

JC message to Extinction Rebellion and other doomsters:  Not only do you know nothing about climate change, you also appear to know nothing of history.  You are your own worst enemy - you are triggering a global backlash against doing anything sensible about protecting our environment or reducing our vulnerability to extreme weather.  You are making young people miserable, who haven’t yet experienced enough of life to place this nonsense in context.

Posted on 12/14 at 11:55 AM
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Saturday, November 23, 2019
​​​​​​Who Is Winning The Climate Wars?

November 22, 2019/ Francis Menton

If you get most of your news passively by just reading what comes up in some kind of Facebook or Google feed or equivalent, you probably have the impression that the Climate Wars are over and the Climate Campaigners have swept the field of battle.

In my case, I certainly don’t rely on those kinds of toxic sources of information, but I do regularly monitor many of the media sources in the “mainstream” category - the New York Times, the Washington Post, Bloomberg, the Economist, Politico, and several of the television networks like CBS, ABC, NBC and CNN.  All of those (and plenty more) have clearly put an absolute ban on any news or information that would cast even the slightest negative light on the proposition that there is an imminent “climate crisis” that must be solved by government transformation of the world economy.

I’ll give a couple of examples of the lengths to which this has gone.  Back in September, mentally unstable Swedish teenager Greta Thunberg, whose only qualification was her ignorant passion for climate extremism, got the platform of the UN “Climate Action Summit” for a big speech.  Excerpt:

You have stolen my dreams and my childhood with your empty words. And yet I’m one of the lucky ones. People are suffering. People are dying. Entire ecosystems are collapsing. We are in the beginning of a mass extinction, and all you can talk about is money and fairy tales of eternal economic growth. How dare you!

You would think that sane people would want to stay as far from Greta as possible lest they get accused of child abuse.  But instead, Greta is feted as a heroine.  In October something called the Nordic Council awarded young Greta its 2019 Environmental Award.  (It seems that she has rejected the award, thus claiming for herself an even higher level of holiness among true believers.)

Meanwhile, over in Germany, a German think tank called the European Institute for Climate and Energy (EIKE in the German acronym) planned to hold a climate conference this past weekend at a hotel called the NH in Munich.  From NoTricksZone November 19:

According to EIKE spokesman, Prof. Horst-Joachim Ludecke, “a left-green mob” pressured the hotel management of the NH Congress Center in Munich (Aschheim) “to illegally cancel the accommodation contract”.

Apparently, the unforgivable sin of EIKE was allowing some scientists from the skeptic camp to appear and speak at their conference.  EIKE went to court to try to get an injunction against the last-minute cancelation of their contract, but the German court upheld the cancelation on the ground that “security” concerns trumped free speech.  NTZ indicates in an update that the conference was able to find an alternative location at the last minute and to proceed; but of course, the last-minute change of venue and secret location were huge negatives in trying to get any publicity for the conference.

So the very last vestiges of dissent are in the process of getting stamped out.  Surely then, the transformation of the world economy and of its use of energy cannot be stopped.

Actually, out there in the world, reality continues to trump hysteria.  Do you remember reports from a couple of years ago that China was ceasing to develop fossil fuel power and was becoming a “climate leader” by going all in for trendy renewables wind and solar?  Well, that was to fool the dopes.  Just this month, something called Global Energy Monitor is out with a new report on what’s going on on the ground in China.  Bottom line: 148 gigawatts of coal-fired capacity under active construction or with construction being resumed after suspension.  The Global Energy Monitor people (who seem to be associated with the End Coal campaign) could not be more horrified: 

[A] permitting spree [from 2014 to 2016] brought a cohort of 245 GW of new projects nearly equivalent to the U.S. coal fleet (254 GW) into the developmental pipeline, inflating what was already an overbuilt coal power fleet, with the average running hours for China’s coal plants hovering around 50% since 2015. Today, 147.7 GW of coal plants are either under active construction or under suspension and likely to be revived - an amount nearly equal to the existing coal power capacity of the European Union (150 GW)… Coal and power industry groups are proposing the central government increase total coal power capacity by 20 to 40% to between 1,200 and 1,400 GW as part of China’s 2035 infrastructure plan.

At 1400 GW of coal power capacity, China would be closing in on 6 times U.S. coal power capacity.  Why again are we bothering with this whole decarbonization thing?  (H/t Global Warming Policy Foundation)

And over in Germany, the fantasy that wind power can be competitive with fossil fuel power also keeps running into the wall of the real world.  Der Spiegel reported on November 19 that the end of certain subsidies, along with opposition from local environmentalists who don’t want forests of ugly wind turbines in their localities, has put the German (and European) wind industry in “free fall”.

The manufacturers of turbines and solar panels are dropping like flies, as subsidies are rolled back across Europe.  So-called ‘green’ jobs are a case of easy come, easy go. The wind and solar ‘industries’ that gave birth to those jobs simply can’t survive without massive and endless subsidies, which means their days are numbered.  With the axe being taken to subsidies across the globe, their ultimate demise is a matter of when, not if.  The wind back in subsidies across Europe has all but destroyed the wind industry: in Germany this year a trifling 35 onshore wind turbines have been erected, so far.  Twelve countries in the European Union (EU) failed to install “a single wind turbine” last year.

Meanwhile, fracking in the U.S. continues to keep supplies of oil and gas plentiful, and prices reasonable.  Petrostates like Russia, Venezuela, Iran and Saudi Arabia are on the run.  So who is really winning the climate wars?

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Nobody Will Stop Africa From Developing Its Fossil Fuel Resources

November 09, 2019/ Francis Menton

In prior posts where I have addressed the futility of jurisdictions in the U.S. trying to “save the planet” by reducing their use of fossil fuels, my focus has generally been on China and India.  Those countries have huge populations (about 1.4 billion each) and still-poorly-developed energy infrastructure.  Of course they are going to continue to build power plants until everybody has access to reliable electricity.  And of course they are going to make use of coal, oil and natural gas, because those fossil fuels provide the cheapest and most reliable energy.  The ongoing increase in emissions from China and India as they build out their electricity systems and as their people acquire automobiles regularly swamps any minor emissions reductions that any jurisdictions in the U.S. can achieve.

But let us also not overlook Africa.  Africa’s population is currently about 1.3 billion, but growing much faster than that of China or India.  The UN projects a population for Africa of 2.5 billion for 2050, and 4 billion for 2100.  Meanwhile, close to half of the current 1.3 billion Africans lack access to electricity; and that number will only grow rapidly in the absence of rapid buildout of an electrical grid throughout the continent.

You may have seen predictions in certain quarters that Africa is going to “go green” as it gains access to energy.  But what is the reality on the ground?  We can get a good indication by looking at what happened last week at the Africa Oil Week convention, held this year in Cape Town, South Africa.  Reuters had a report on the event, with the headline “No apologies: Africans say their need for oil cash outweighs climate concerns.”

It seems that the Africa Oil Week convention was attended by representatives of some 75 countries, including 23 energy ministers.  According to Reuters, unlike the scene at similar confabs held in Europe, at this one pretty much no one gave a hoot about the issue of “climate change”.

The tension keenly felt at oil conferences in Europe was largely absent over the three-day event in Cape Town; there was little focus on climate change…

One after another, delegates interviewed by Reuters stated that they were not going to let non-Africans buffalo them into not developing their fossil fuel resources.  Examples:

From Gabriel Obiang Lima, energy minister of Equatorial Guinea:  “Under no circumstances are we going to be apologizing [for developing our fossil fuel resources]… Anybody out of the continent saying we should not develop those [oil] fields, that is criminal.”

From Gwede Mantashe, energy minister of South Africa:  “Energy is the catalyst for growth… [Environmentalists] even want to tell us to switch off all the coal-generated power stations,” he said. “Until you tell them, ‘you know we can do that, but you’ll breathe fresh air in the darkness’.”

From Noel Mboumba, hydrocarbons minister of Gabon:  “Oil is a major driver of development.  We will do all in our power to develop it.”

Meanwhile, Africa News has a roundup from the same convention of various countries announcing plans to move forward on fossil fuel development and investment projects:

Senegal’s Oil and Energy Minister Mahamadou Makhtar Cisse used the platform to launch… a licensing round of three blocks of sediment basin.

Angola’s newly formed national oil, gas and biofuels agency, ANGP, announced that the country has formed a consortium with five international oil companies, including Eni and Chevron, to develop liquefied natural gas (LNG)…

Uganda is highlighting the ongoing second licensing round for oil exploration, which covers five highly prospective blocks with relatively good seismic and other data, Minister [Irene] Muloni said…

Ghana told AOW delegates that plans, revising its laws on oil and gas licenses, sent to parliament last week, are an effort to spur production…

Chairman of Mozambique’s upstream regulator, INP, Carlos Zacarias announced that the country’s long-awaited sixth licensing round is due to be launched early next year.

Somalian Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Abdirashid Mohamed Ahmed said his country was embarked on a path to transform Somalia’s petroleum industry and attract the attention of new investors…

Even as the Oil Week convention proceeded, outside the hotel, a small group of protesters from Extinction Rebellion did their thing, labeling the event a “Climate Criminals Conference.” Here is a photograph from Reuters:

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Notice that all of the protesters are white.  Their objective is to keep the poor poor.  Somehow they have convinced themselves that they have the moral high ground. 

Posted on 11/23 at 10:27 AM
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Saturday, November 09, 2019
Green deals could cost families $10,000/year more for energy and lost jobs

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Many energy companies, auto and other corporations are increasing their support of the decarbonization programs and policies (including taxes, mandated reduction of our use of fossil fuels, pushing not ready for prime time alternatives). This has proved to be a disaster in all countries that followed this unwise radical enviro track.

See how a 2014 senate report showed there is a left wing billionaires club which has used environmentalism to control the economy and subvert democracy here. We are working to educate the increasingly compliant organizations and key politicians at all levels. We get no help from the media which refuses to cover any alternative views on this critical issue. All our efforts (posts, editorials, LTEs, videos, talks (science teachers, taxpayers association, state legislators, Rotary Clubs, institutes), peer reviewed reports like this) have been done pro-bono. Attacks on us have always included claims we were funded by big oil and the Koch Brothers. I wish.  If you can, please support our efforts with a donation (secure PAYPAL button on the left).

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CO2 - THE GAS OF LIFE

CO2 is a beneficial trace gas (0.04% of our atmosphere). With every breath we emit out 100 times more CO2 than we breathe in so it is not harmful. The increase in CO2 has caused a significant greening of the earth, with increased crop yields feeding more people at lower cost.

Dr. Craig Idso of CO2 Science noted recently “Carbon dioxide is not a pollutant and it is most certainly not causing dangerous global warming. Rather, its increase in the atmosphere is invigorating the biosphere, producing a multitude of benefits for humanity and the natural world, notwithstanding the prognostications of the uninformed.” Dr. Will Happer, Princeton Physicist says we are coming out of a CO2 drought and humanity would benefit from CO2 being 2 to 3 times higher.

It’s not the first time we were told we faced an existential threat due to climate change. In 1970, Stanford’s Paul Ehrlich warned that because of population growth, climate stress (then cold) and dwindling energy that between 1980 and 1989, some 4 billion people, including 65 million Americans, would perish in the “Great Die-Off” which was too late to stop.  Even as each subsequent dire forecast failed (see how the alarmist/media record is perfect (100% wrong) in the 50 major claims made since 1950 here), the alarms continued, each pushing the date forward - 2000, 2020, and now 2030.  This summer at Glacier National Park signs “Warning: glaciers will be gone by 2020” were quietly removed as ice and snow increased.

A team of scientific experts evaluated the 12 most commonly reported claims and found them all unfounded - see .

The climate models used to predict the future have all failed miserably.

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Heat records have declined since the 1930s, which holds 23 of the 50 state hottest ever temperature records.  This was the second quietest decade for landfalling hurricanes and major hurricanes since 1850. This was the quietest decade for tornadoes since tracking began in the 1950s. Sea level rises have slowed to 4 inches/century globally. Arctic ice has tracked with the 60-year ocean cycles and is similar to where it was in the 1920s to 1950s. NOAA could find no evidence of increased frequency of floods and droughts (this spring had the smallest % of US in drought on record). Snow which the university scientists here predicted would disappear, actually has set new records (fall and winter) for the hemisphere and North America, and both Boston and NYC have had more snow in the 10 years ending 2018 than any other 10 year period back to the late 1880s. Wildfires cause havoc but were far more prevalent before the forest management, fire suppression and grazing of the 1900s.  They are problems now because more have left the failing cities to move out of state or to the beauty of the foothills. The power lines to service them can spark new fires when the cold air rushes through the mountain passes this time of years downing trees onto the power lines.

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In the U.S., with low cost energy, lowered taxes and elimination of unnecessary regulations, we now have the lowest unemployment for the nation in decades or history and for the first time in a long time significant wage increases! Here in NH, we have the lowest unemployment in the nation. The U.S. is energy independent, a long time thought unachievable goal. Our air and water is cleanest in our lifetimes well below the tough standards we put in place decades ago.

The real existential threat comes would come from radical environmentalism and the prescribed remedies. The scare is politically driven, all about big government and control over every aspect of our lives. AOC’s chief of staff Saikat Chakrabarti in May admitted that the Green New Deal was not conceived as an effort to deal with climate change, but instead a “how-do-you-change-the-entire economy thing” - nothing more than a thinly veiled socialist takeover of the U.S. economy. He was echoing what the climate change head of the UN climate chief and the UN IPCC Lead Author said - that is was our best chance to change the economic system (to centralized control) and redistribute wealth (socialism).

The economy in every country that has moved down an extreme green path have seen skyrocketing energy costs - 3 times our levels.

Renewables are unreliable as the wind doesn’t always blow nor the sun shine. And don’t believe the claims millions of green jobs would result. In Spain, every green job created cost Spain $774,000 in subsidies and resulted in a loss of 2.2 real jobs. Only 1 in 10 green jobs were permanent.  Industry left and in Spain unemployment rose to 27.5%.

Many households in the countries that have gone green are said to be in “energy poverty” (25% UK, 15% Germany). The elderly are said in winter to be forced to “choose between heating and eating”. Extreme cold already kills 20 times more than heat according to a study of 74 million deaths in 13 countries.

Politicians in the northeast states are bragging that they stopped the natural gas pipeline, shut down nuclear and coal plants and blocked the northern Pass which would have delivered low cost hydropower from Canada. In Concord, they are now scurrying to try and explain why electricity prices are 50 to 60% higher than the national average here and are speculating they have not moved fast enough with wind and solar.  Several states have even established zero carbon emissions. This will lead to soaring energy prices and life-threatening blackouts. For a family of 4 in a modest house with 3 cars, the energy costs could increase over $10,000/year (based on a sample of households and their energy costs multiplied by 3 as has occurred in countries with a onerous green agenda). And by the way like in Europe where this plan was enacted, many will lose their jobs. They are being told what (if) they can drive and what they can eat.

Prosperity always delivers a better life AND environment than poverty.

“If you don’t know where you are going, you might end up somewhere else.”Yogi Berra

Thank you for supporting ICECAP. We present the opinions of many real scientists which are not driven by profit motive but the truth. We are all sincerely worried about the policies that are based on political motivations and not science that could not only destroy prosperity so many have worked hard to achieve but also prevent the have-nots from becoming self sufficient and live more productive and fulfilling lives. You see elitists and politicians recognize if people are self sufficient, they lose their power and control. Along the same lines, we worry about our failing education system. Instead of taxing hard working taxpayers to help our young people pay off college loan debt for useless degrees, perhaps we need to employ class action suits to go after universities and administrators, overpaid faculty and their bloated endowments.

Posted on 11/09 at 06:14 AM
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