By Maurizio Morabito

Italian newspaper “La Stampa” has just put online its 1867-today archive (yes, it IS in Italian). What better chance (well, for me at least...) to explore the evolution of “global cooling” thinking in the 1970s beyond the usual English-speaking newsmedia? With the added bonus of plenty of names and other key words to use as...keywords for further research.

Very briefly: in the 15 articles I have found so far:

the popularity of scientists predicting an ice age is very clear up to the Feb 1979 meeting of the World Meteorological Organization, “upcoming ice age” is the meme du jour up to 1985 at least there is a warmist slant in 1990 but strangely, the arguments of discussion are more or less the same still central to the debate in 2010. This collection strongly indicates that in Italy, like elsewhere, the average reader of newspapers would have had all the reasons to believe in a “global cooling consensus” for much of the 1970’s and even later.

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Here’s the article list:

1. June 22, 1976 (n.145, p.14): “Entro cento anni avremo una era glaciale” - “Within a hundred years we’ll get an ice age” by Umberto Oddone

- Mentions Reid Bryson “not all scientists agree”
- a Cesare Emiliani from the University of Miami investigates 700,000 years of sea-shells Oxygen isotopes
- icebreaker “Glacier” gets “stuck in the Atlantic”

2. June 27, 1976 (n.150, p.9): “Tra ghiacci e siccita” - “Between ice and drought” by Umberto Oddone

- Earth is “having a fever”
- Bryson again
- Cesare Emiliani and sea-shells analysis, again

3. Oct 19, 1976 (n.229, p.21): “Fra pochi anni inverni freddissimi - In Siberia spariranno i cereali?” - “Very cold winters within few years - will grains disappear from Siberia?” by Bruno Ghibaudi

- 30 years of cooling trend
- Not a new ice age but hard consequences expected for the USSR
- Mentions Prok Nikola Volkov, Director, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, Leningrad
- Kara Sea temperature having dropped from -10C to -13C in 30 years
- Nearby polar seas, decreases of 1 or 2C
- Sea lanes to Murmansk and Arkangelsk closed by the ice in the early 1900′s, open in 1941-45, now 60% closed again
- Two teams of French scientists complete research in the Antarctic.
- Oxygen-isotope analysis indicates climate cycles, with a new cold peak in 3000AD and a warm peak in 9000AD
- Mentions human influence, possible apocalyptic consequences
- Recommends an international program to control climate

4. Feb 14, 1977 (n.29, p.3): “E’ giunta l’era glaciale” - “The ice age has come” by Alberto Rapisarda

- Bryson again. Must have been very popular.

5. Jan 3, 1978 (n.1, p.3): “Si torna all’era glaciale?” - “A return to the ice age?” by Umberto Oddone

- Mentions a new book “Climatologia” by Prof. Mario Pinna
- Suggests getting warm clothes ready, for a few decades or for thousands of years

6. Apr 14, 1978 - (n.85, p.15): “Aiuto, arriva l’era glaciale” - “Help, the ice age is coming” (unsigned article)

- “Many meteorologists” “convinced” about upcoming little ice age
- Climate for 90% of the time warmer than at present
- Causes of the cooling: disagreement
- According to Juri Izrael, Hydrometer Service Director for the USSR: deforestation, landscape changes
- According to James Hays of Columbia University and Nicholas Shackelton of Cambridge University: orbital changes
- Hurd Willett of MIT mentioned as expecting lower temps
- “Many meteorologists” of the opinion that “it’s all due to changes in the Sun”

7. Apr 27, 1978 (n.95, p.9): “Siamo alla soglia dell’era glaciale?” - “Are we on the edge of an ice age?” by Umberto Oddone

- Mentions “18 known American climatologists” and a series of articles on Die Welt
- North Polar ice cap increases from 1971 to 1978 by 12%
- Antarctic ice mass increase from 1966 to 1967 by 10%
- Global temperature down in 30 years by 0.5C
- Mentions Bryson expecting a return to the little ice age
- Mentions other climatologists as far more pessimist ("big" ice age) - work by the Impact Team headed by climatologist William Colby, former head of the CIA - “snowblitz”
- Mentions Dansgaard
- Mentions Calder as reporting the opinion of “not a few” scientists

8. Jan 4, 1979 (n.3, p.4): “Sta per cominciare un’era glaciale - secondo meteorologi giapponesi” - “An ice age is coming - according to Japanese meteorologists” by press agency Ansa-Reuter

- Mentions Junkichi Nemoto - University of Saitama - saying a “little ice age” is already underway
- Mentions WMO conference in Feb 1979 in Geneva

9. Jan 9, 1979 (n.8, p.28): “Ma perche’ parlare di era glaciale?” - “And why all the talk of an ice age?” by Stefano Pavan

- Mentions climate wars
- Hubert Lamb, Alastair Woodroffe: snowblitz (snow accumulating by not completely melting by the end of the summer), 50cm/year

10. Feb 19, 1979 (n.48, p.3): “Cambia il nostro clima - Il mondo va verso una nuova era glaciale?” - “Our climate is changing - Is the world going towards an ice age?” by Fabio Galvano

- Mentions the WMO Conference in Geneva
- “400 climatologists” meeting to discuss how humanity can adapt to climate changes
- Conference President - Robert White
- Mentions some scientists as believing that Earth is moving towards an ice age
- Mentions most scientists as believing that Earth is getting warmer due to human activities
- Greenhouse effect from a sulphuric acid/ammonium sulphide “polar fog”
- Mentions Stephen Schneider as expecting 2C-3C of increase in the temperate zones in 2050, as CO2 concentrations double. Mentions William Kellogg as expecting another doubling by 2100, with +6C
- Mentions +20C at the Poles
- Mentions the Amazon turning into a Sahara (Harry Knowles)
- Geoengineering in the USSR proposed by climatologist Federov

11. Jan 20, 1982 (n.16): “Tranquilli, non e’ un’altra era glaciale” - “Keep cool, there’s no ice age coming” by James Wagner, National Weather Service

- No ice age

from Piero Bianucci’s Apr 21, 1982 article

12. Apr 21, 1982 (n.25, p. 3): “Questo freddo di aprile farà’ scendere i ghiacciai?” - “This cold in April will expand the glaciers?” by Piero Bianucci

- Detailed temperature graph for the last 80,000 years
- Mentions winter 81-82 as colder than 77’s, considered “coldest in the century” by “American climatologist”
- Walter Orr Roberts and sun/drought link
- Mentions Stephen Schneider, according to whom the “turnaround year” from a warming trend to a cooling one was 1972, a year with drought in the USSR, floods in Pakistan, and a delayed start of the monsoon season.
- Mentions Lamb describing a “butterfly effect” on climate

13. Jan 30, 1985 (n.155, p. 2): “Dietro l’angolo c’e’ un’era glaciale?” - “Is there an ice age behind the corner?” by Stefano Pavan

- Nicholas Shackleton, Cambridge University - shells analysis indicates a descent into an ice age - for 5,000 years, an accumulation of 50cm/year - “snowblitz”
- Mentions Danish glaciologists as saying that summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere has come down, and it’s lower than when 90,000 years ago there was a sudden cooling episode
- Mentions Nigel Calder’s “The Weather Machine” with a long list of countries that would fall against the climate catastrophe

14. Oct 10, 1990 (n.436, p. 21): “Il clima cambia, ecco gli indizi” - “The climate changes, here’s the evidence” by Angelo Tartaglia
and
15. Oct 10, 1990 (n.436, p. 21): “I dati sono insufficienti” - “There is not enough data” by Stefano Pavan

Both articles could have been written yesterday, including skeptics at the MIT and computer models at the UK’s Met Office

See post and more here.