By Jeff Poor, The Daily Caller

Much of the United States and Europe is suffering through extreme wintery weather conditions. But what is causing it?

Some have blamed global warming, specifically the “Arctic paradox.” However, AccuWeather’s chief hurricane and long-range forecaster Joe Bastardi told the Fox Business Network on Tuesday you can chalk it up to three things - oceans, sunspots and volcanoes.

“A few years ago, about why we have to start looking for more and more of this [cold weather],” Bastardi said. “It’s called the triple crown of cooling - the natural reversal of the oceans cycles. Three years ago the Pacific went into the cold state. Solar activity, very low sunspot activity and volcanic activity, not the kind you see in the tropics but the kind we had in the Arctic regions a couple of winters ago - and this is something that could be causing a return to for instance, the times of the Victorian era when they used to have ice fairs in the early-1800s around Christmastime on the Thames and you’re seeing that type of thing go on.”

As for those who are blaming global warming, Bastardi said that theory was childish and presented instead the possibility of long-term global cooling.
“Well, I’ve been saying what I believe is going on is this is the big debate between the natural cycles and the forces of AGW [anthropogenic global warming] - by the way, these folks claiming that global warming is causing severe cold is like the kid on the playground who doesn’t get his way and takes his ball home. The fact of the matter is the forecast that was made by this forecaster three years ago that we we’re going to start seeing these things because of this and it opens up the big debate - are the natural cycles taking over and are we going to see cooling over the next 20 to 30 years? You see, we started measuring temperatures with satellite at the end of the last cold cycle in the Pacific. We had nothing but warm in the Pacific and warm in the Atlantic. What’s going to happen to the temperatures if the oceans are warm? Now that they’re cooling let’s see what’s going to happens in the next 20 to 30 years.”

He said that the unseasonably cold winter is something that could be predicted and told viewers not to just blame global warming.

“This is predictable if you study cycles, if you study climatology,” Bastardi said. “And don’t just say everything is global warming.”

But, Bastardi also warned of a drought that will in cause higher commodity prices.

“I think the southern plains of the United States are starting evolve a drought now,” Bastardi said. “This dryness that you’re seeing in Texas I think will evolve into spring and summer time and Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas into the lower Mississippi valley looked to me to be very dry this upcoming summer” See post here.

Icecap Note: We agree with Joe. The ‘arctic paradox’ is a new term (sounds technical excuse) for a phenomenon that real forecasters have known and used for years. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation are behind the cold winters. They are tied to the Atlantic and to a lesser degree Pacific temperatures, both of which undergo multidecadal cycles (60-70 years).  The favored states of the AO and NAO are tied to the phases of these long term oscillations. The long term ocean cycles are natural changes and linked to variations in the meandering thermohaline circulation likely tied to solar influences. They behave predictably and indeed were used by Dr. Bill Gray to predict the increase in hurricane activity starting in 1995. Greenhouse gases have zero to do with these cycles. Sorry Gavin, try again.