The Fourth National Climate Assessment violates scientific integrity

By Edwin Berry, Ph.D., Physics

When the U.S. government began to support the global warming agenda

In 1988, the Environmental Protection Agency called a meeting of atmospheric scientists. I remember well the meeting in a theater-like lecture room in the San Francisco Bay Area. I knew the atmospheric scientists from Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, Stanford Research Institute, and local colleges.

A man in a suit walked up to the lectern. He told us:

Global warming is a new national problem. Human CO2 emissions cause dangerous global warming. Future research funding will focus on predicting climate disasters.

The room was silent. I raised my hand, “How can you support your global warming hypothesis when you omit cloud cover which affects heat balance more than carbon dioxide?”

He answered, “I know more about the atmosphere than you people do.”

I responded, “How do you know more than the atmospheric scientists in this room?”

He said, “oI know more about the climate because I am a lawyer for the EPA.”

Thus the U.S. government announced its support of the global warming fraud. Government agencies began giving absurd “research” contracts to ecologists, but not physicists and engineers, because ecologists would support the government’s global warming agenda.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program

In 1989, Presidential initiative established the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). In 1990, Congress mandated the Global Change Research Act (GCRA) to develop and coordinate

“a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change.”

USGCRP comprises 13 Federal agencies under the Subcommittee on Global Change Research of the National Science and Technology Council’s Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability.

The GCRA requires USGCRP to submit the National Climate Assessment (NCA) to the President and Congress every four years.

The 2018 Fourth National Climate Assessment (NCA) is pseudoscience.

The NCA omits the scientific method. The NCA uses IPCC science. Tests of 102 IPCC “CMIP” climate models began in 1980. By 2015, no climate model agreed with another climate model, and their average global-temperature prediction is far higher than the data show. This alone proves climate models cannot predict climate. Therefore, according to the scientific method, the IPCC and NCA climate theories are wrong.

The U.S. Global Change Research Program and its NCA is the biggest fraud ever perpetrated on the American people. The NCA is not science. It is the promotion of a government climate religion for political purposes. The NCA lacks scientific competence and scientific integrity. You can read comments on the NCA report by other scientists on Climate Depot.

How climate science should be done.

Properly done, human-caused climate science must progress through the following steps (1) to (3). The alarmists add step (4) as their political solution to (3):

Show human CO2, not nature, caused all CO2 increase above 280 ppm, or since 1750.
Show human-caused CO2 increase causes significant global warming.
Show human-caused global warming causes bad stuff to happen.
Stop bad stuff by reducing CO2 emissions and using wind and solar energy.
According to the scientific method and logic, if the climate alarmists cannot show that both (1) and (2) are true, then they lose their case.

Good science has proved the following:

The IPCC argument to support (1) fails logic. Physics proves human CO2 adds less than 5 percent to the natural level of CO2. So, human CO2 emissions do not cause climate change (Berry, 2018, and others). The NCA does not even argue that (1) is true.

The IPCC argument to support (2) fails because it uses an incorrect feedback calculation and it ignores convection which moves heat upward faster than radiation. Correction of the feedback proves human-caused CO2 heating is insignificant (Monckton, 2018, and others). The IPCC argument also The NCA4 Vol. I argument fails.

The IPCC argument that global warming causes bad stuff to happen fails because data and good science show the alarmist bad-stuff claims are wrong and that warming is beneficial. The NCA4 Vol. II argument fails because it uses unrealistic scenarios for future climate.

Alarmist arguments for large-scale wind and solar energy fail because these energy sources do not reduce human CO2 emissions, they kill wildlife, they increase the costs of electrical energy, and they reduce the benefits and availability of fossil-fuel energy.

Climate alarmists have not proved (1) and (2) are true. Yet, they move merrily on to claim (3) climate change causes bad stuff to happen. Isn’t the bad stuff all you hear and read in the news? You never hear about the science.

The alarmists think if they make the bad stuff is scary then (1) and (2) must be true. Not so. Events do not prove their cause.

Why is good science losing the climate war?

Good science is losing the climate war for three reasons:

It is not a scientific war. It is a political and PR war for the minds of the voters.

The alarmists have 97 percent of the climate money and government jobs.

The Trump administration has played neither defense or offense in the climate war.

Alarmists have the money.

The alarmists have a climate machine. Billionaires and major foundations support the green climate agenda.

Hedgefund billionaire Tom Styer funds the Center for American Progress and NextGen America, which promote the green agenda. A Center alumnus was the sole editor of the NCA’s bad stuff claims that use an unrealistic scenario. Who put that editor in charge?

Climate Solutions, an example non-profit climate alarmist group, advertises:

When you donate to Climate Solutions, you are working toward accelerating solutions to the climate crisis. Your partnership will help us:

Champion transformational policies and market-based innovations;

Catalyze powerful partnerships and a diverse movement for action and accountability; and

Communicate a bold vision for solutions at the scale required by climate science.

How do greens get away with using non-profit organizations for green political action?

Almost all media talking heads support the green climate agenda. Seth Borenstein, a climate alarmist, writes every climate-related statement for Associated Press. People believe the AP is unbiased and accurate. The greens own AP.

Alarmists dominate government jobs.

It is like having your enemy dominating the positions in your army. Since 1990, the insiders have been stacking government jobs with greens and climate alarmists. They now run the government bureaucracy. They use their government jobs to block President Trump’s agenda and to publish the NCA.

Alarmists own the NAS and dominate scientific societies.

In 2010, 289 members of the National Academy of Scientists (NAS) signed a public letter that claims (1), (2) and (3) are true. They claim to be scientists, but they did not act as scientists. They acted to support a political agenda, not science because these claims are clearly false.

The greens own most scientific societies and most professional scientific journals. That way, they get their climate science junk published and block good climate science from being published. Peer review has lost its meaning and respect. It has become political.

Good scientists are outgunned.

Frankly, the good scientists are overwhelmed. They are like an army trying to fight a modern war with bows and arrows.

Climate alarmists can throw out climate garbage faster than good scientists can respond. And when good scientists respond, the alarmists and the media ignore their response. No matter what they say, climate alarmists get the approval and promotion by the media.

This does not change the fact that the good scientists have proven the alarmist claims are wrong. It’s just that ultimately the climate battle is a PR battle. And it takes money and people in power to win a PR battle.

Climate alarmists are like the creationists. They promote bad science in the climate war.

The Trump administration must promote a climate offensive.

President Trump has made the right decisions on climate issues. However, his administration has not gone on the offense to back up his correct views of climate science. In fact, President Trump has not defended his climate decisions. He has let the alarmists dominate the science debate without rebuttal. That is why, so far, he has lost the climate war.

How can good climate science win the climate war?

Good scientists have already proved the IPCC and NCA are wrong. Here’s what else needs to happen:

The purpose of the NCA is to undermine President Trump and his climate agenda. Now, the 13 Federal agencies should reject the NCA. However, they need good science to back up their rejection. Good science is available. The government only needs to ask for it, support it, and fund it.

The government must hire good scientists to help change climate policy on the inside. Maybe some good scientists can convert some greens to good science.

Schools, colleges, universities must teach good climate science. This will require good scientists to be brought into the science teaching. We cannot rely on the present teachers to properly teach good science until they pass a training program.

Create training programs for science teachers to qualify to teach good climate science.

Most universities promote climate alarmism as an authoritarian religion. They require complete devotion by faculty and students, or else the faculty are dismissed, and the students are flunked.

The government pays universities millions of dollars to promote the climate religion. It’s time to turn off the climate money faucet or divert the money flow by giving grants and contracts to good scientists.

To stop the funding of bad climate science, it may be necessary to have good scientists review every government climate-related grant or contract before it can become final.

Remove all climate alarmism from government websites and publications.

Implement a national climate truth program to get climate truth to the public. It must exceed the influence of the bad science promoted by climate alarmists.

Change the education policies in each state individually to allow its schools to teach climate truth.

Urgency
President Trump may have only two more years to set climate science straight in the U.S. government. If a Democrat becomes president in 2020, it will take about ten minutes to move government climate policy back to where Obama left it.

Demographics show the climate-alarmist Next Generation will control U.S. politics. It is a national emergency to teach them the climate truth.

The Republican Party is the only party that supports good science. For a nation to be great, it must replace false climate ideas with climate truth. We must act in time to save the Republican Party. That time limit is two years

COMMENT FROM DR. GORDON FULKS

Excellent job, Ed!

You have very clearly laid out the present assault on science, such that everyone should be able to understand it.  The underlying problem is that too many are too willing to put their entire faith in the scientific establishment, believing that they cannot possibly be wrong, when they have been frequently wrong.  These people have no idea how science actually works and will not listen if we try to explain it to them.  They only want to respond to emotional arguments, because most never learned how to think rationally in the first place.

They have no hope of understanding Richard Feynman’s comment that “Science is a belief in the ignorance of the experts.” And they will never understand the Royal Society’s motto “Take no ones word for it.”

Hence, it falls upon us to stop corrupt scientists from continuing to feed hysteria in order to keep getting their government grants.  We have to continue to call them out for their very, very bad behavior. 

But the problem of the nation being held hostage by a scientific-technological elite is a political problem that President Eisenhower first recognized.  Politicians need to put a stop to this by pulling all funding for those scientists who purvey propaganda and feed hysteria.  That is a sure sign that they are not doing good work and are not even real scientists.

Ending the Federal gravy train and making scientists justify their requests for funding on the basis of real science would be truly revolutionary.  That would solve the problem of non-science masquerading as science almost overnight.

And let’s make sure that the nonsense does not reappear as another scare without merit in the future.

Gordon
Gordon J. Fulks, PhD (Physics)
Corbett, Oregon USA
--------------

By Penny Starr

The federal government’s Fourth National Climate Assessment, released on Friday, has gained praise from leftists and left-wing environmental groups as a dire warning of the coming death and destruction in the United States if we don’t stop global warming.

But critics of the report, including scientists, have slammed it as “exaggeration,” bad science and even said its conclusions are “false.”

“This latest climate report is just more of the same - except for even greater exaggeration, worse science, and added interference in the political process by unelected, self-serving bureaucrats,” Tim Huelskamp, president of the Heartland Institute said in statements released by the free-market think tank following the report’s release.

“With a new volume out in December, The Heartland Institute has published 4,000 pages of the Climate Change Reconsidered series by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Huelskamp said. “Those reports cite many hundreds of peer-reviewed scientific papers that show how every conclusion of this latest government report [is] false.”

“This report from the climate alarmist Deep State in our government is even more hysterical than some United Nations reports,” Huelskamp noted. “The idea that global temperatures could rise as much as 12 degrees in the next 80 years is absurd and not a shred of actual data and observation supports that.”

“This report is a scientific embarrassment,” Jay Lehr, science director at the Heartland Institute, said. “Not only does it rely on computer models to predict the climate through the end of the century, it relies on computer models from five years ago that have been laughably wrong, failing to get even close to reality since 2013.”

Lehr said the report is filled with “blatantly absurd conclusions” designed to put more money and power into the hands of the United Nations.

As Breitbart News reported, the assessment includes predictions of dire consequences from climate change, including people dying because of increased temperatures. (note heat has been steadily decreasing since the 1930s and 1950s).

“Higher temperatures will also kill more people, the report says,” CNN reported. “The Midwest alone, which is predicted to have the largest increase in extreme temperature, will see an additional 2,000 premature deaths per year by 2090.”

The report also said there would be more insect-borne diseases, including West Nile cases, which could more than double by 2050, according to the report.

The wattsupwiththat.com website pointed out that Chapter 6 of what it called an “alarmist” report on climate change contradicts some of its claims:

Temperature changes in the United States of the U.S. Global Change Research Program’s recently published Climate Science Special Report (2017) clearly shows and discusses, under the heading of “6.1.2 Temperature Extremes’, how temperature extremes for the contiguous United States have become more moderate over the last 118 years, with the coldest daily temperatures warming and the warmest daily temperatures cooling. In other words, temperature-extreme-related climate in the United States has improved.

Critics also have advice for President Donald Trump, who has said man-made climate change is not a concluded fact.

‘President Trump was required by law to release this report, but he is not required to take it seriously - and he surely will not,” Huelskamp said. “To do so would undermine his sensible, deregulatory agenda and restart the war on fossil fuels.”

“Happily, President Trump has on his advisory staff Dr. William Harper [of Princeton University], who knows how flawed these models are and will advise the president to not base a single aspect of U.S. policy upon them,” Lehr said.

“This is the Deep State run amok, James Taylor, a senior fellow on environment and energy policy at Heartland, said. “The Trump administration needs to root out the embedded leftists who are responsible for this one-sided propaganda report that is even less credible than Al Gore.”

“The left has already politicized the science, and President Trump has every right to populate the executive branch agencies that produced this report with climate realists,” Taylor said.

Lehr and 18 reputable scientists wrote a 54-page critique of the Global Change Research Program’s 2017 report, which was similarly alarmist, according to Heartland.

The critique can be found here.

See this post on Extreme Fraud in the NCA by Tony Heller.