By Ryan N. Maue, Florida State University
Unless a dramatic and historical flurry of activity occurs in November and December, 2007 will rank as a historically inactive TC year for the Northern Hemisphere as a whole. During past 30 years, only 1977 has had less activity to date Jan 1-Oct 31. For the period of June 1 - Oct 31, only 1977 has experienced LESS tropical cyclone activity than 2007. October stats are complete. For the North Atlantic basin, one should always be prepared for late-season developments since hurricane season continues until the end of November. 2007 had the lowest September activity on record since 1977. 2006 and 2007 had the lowest October activity on record since 1976 and 1977
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Icecap Note: Ironically the Pacific was undergoing the Great Pacific Climate Shift in 1976 and 1977, the last time we were this quiet. We appear to be again in the midst of another Great Pacific Climate Shift back to cold. Perhaps with these transitions, there is enough chaos in global weather patterns to reduce tropical system organization in most or all of the hurricane regions. Take that together with the prospect of a major decline in the solar activity that appears more and more likely with each and every day the next solar cycle is delayed (already cycle 23 is the longest since the early 1900s), the prospects that we will see an acceleration down in global temperatures, which peaked in 1998 by most measures, grow. If Global Warming was a stock, I would be selling.