By Frank Lansner, Hide the Decline

A global temperature stagnation despite warm El Nino year 2010?

Will the global warming idea survive a strong La Nina?

After the warm El Nino period 2009-2010, global temperature trends starting 1998 has generally turned positive:

Enlarged.

The period starts out with a strong El Nino in 1998, however a strong La Nina lasting 3 times longer also has a strong effect on temperature trends starting 1998.

Temperature trends from 2002:

Enlarged.

Thus removing the 1998 El Nino and 1999-2001 La Nina significantly cools the trends. The overall picture is now temperature stagnation 2002-2010 9 years.

The global warming theory generally suggests heating, but one can say that a period of roughly a decade with no temperature rise might be an expected deviation from the general trend.

However, things get worse for the global warming idea. Problem is that 2010 in the very end of the shown period is in fact a rather warm El Nino year. And still, the trends 2002-2010 are just… flat. Even now after the warm 2010. As if the global warming idea just barely holds on in the months just after a warm 2010.

However, things get even worse for the global warming idea. The powerful La Nina is now showing its strength as we have witnessed temperature dive in the latest months. ICECAP Note: Wolter’s MEI

Enlarged.

The NCEP prognoses roughly indicates a further drop of probably more than 0.1 K from December 2010 to January 2011. And the La Nina - allthough predicted to weaken during spring time - is by many predicted to match the 1999-2001 La Nina.

Enlarged.

IF the present La Nina will resemble the magnitude and effect of the 1999-2001 La Nina, how would this affect the temperature trends from 1998 that already seems to have stagnated for a decade?

A “simulated” La Nina 1999-2001 by just assuming the same temperature flow repeated starting Januar 2011 to get a rough idea. Now suddenly we have a full 16 years period of no warming. In fact we mostly see cooling trends. (If we imagine yet an El Nino to occur thereafter, then after 17 - 18 years, perhaps we will still just have a flat curve??)

And “Uhh Ohh” whats going to happen if we simulate a 1999-2001 La Nina on the graph starting at 2002??

Enlarged.

In this view, we see 12 yeas of strongly falling temperature trends.

La Nina is upon us, and that it won’t help the global warming message.

See post here.