By Steve McIntyre in Climate Audit on January 27th, 2009

Yesterday Ross and I submitted an article to the International Journal of Climatology with the following abstract:

A debate exists over whether tropical troposphere temperature trends in climate models are inconsistent with observations (Karl et al. 2006, IPCC (2007), Douglass et al 2007, Santer et al 2008). Most recently, Santer et al (2008, herein S08) asserted that the Douglass et al statistical methodology was flawed and that a correct methodology showed there is no statistically significant difference between the model ensemble mean trend and either RSS or UAH satellite observations. However this result was based on data ending in 1999. Using data up to the end of 2007 (as available to S08) or to the end of 2008 and applying exactly the same methodology as S08 results in a statistically significant difference between the ensemble mean trend and UAH observations and approaching statistical significance for the RSS T2 data. The claim by S08 to have achieved a “partial resolution” of the discrepancy between observations and the model ensemble mean trend is unwarranted.

Attached to the article as Supplementary Information was code (of a style familiar to CA readers) which, when pasted into R, will go and collect all the relevant data online and produce all the statistics and figures in the article. In the event that Santer et al wish to dispute or reconcile any of our findings, we have tried to make it easy for them to show how and where we are wrong, rather than to set up pointless roadblocks to such diagnoses. (Icecap note: as Santer did)

We only consider the comparison between the model ensemble mean trend and observations (the Santer H2 hypothesis). Read Steve’s full post here.

Read the NIPCC report which promoted this missing fingerprint of AGW here. Read a pre-Santer et al reponse to another lame Real Climate attack on the NIPCC findings here.