Guest Post by Mark Vogan

With the sun, the thing that keeps us from looking and feeling like Pluto ready to enter hibernation mode, we must now be prepared for what will be a tough 30 years ahead. Remember those winter days of the 1960s and 70s? Well you better prepare now, for those are days that are fast returning. I never have experienced anything other than modern warming. I am 26 years of age and born in the early 80s, global warming had become a way of life, however for people my age or younger, the winters of 96-97, 02-03 and 08-09 are winters that are warm compared to what’s inevitably coming our way as our sun, that warm star which has brought increasingly balmier winters of the past 30 years, shortened our winter, lenghtened our summer and brought remarkable shorts and t-shirt weather to London in November and in January to New York.

Those were the good old Modern Warm Period days, their fast leaving us and a brand new era of winter will bring us back to where we were in the 60s and 70s but likely further back in time when non of us where born. We often read about those scary winters of the late 1800s and early 1900s when regular freezing of the Thames and Dutch Canals were the norm and temperatures as far south as Kent, England hit the -20s C and New Yorkers could walk from New Jersey to Manhattan, well those are the times we are likely going to face and what worries me is that we may have a winter just a couple of months away that may be more severe than anything predicted.

Last winter in the Midwest and Lakes and in the UK I believe is a wake up call to the Northern Hemisphere and world that things are changing on a global scale and for the long term. I believe the pattern that’s been shaped since the La Nina of 2008, the rebuilding of the Arctic sea ice, the new record low set in Maine and what likely should have been a new Illinois record low is sure signs of cold times ahead. The 1930s displayed much warmer conditions here in the Northern world than anything seen in the 1990s and 2000s, in fact since the turn of the millenium we have clear cut evidence that suggest our world is cooling, but it’s been so warm that even now as we see cooling, we are still above normal, if we aren’t cooling and we’re still warming up why are NOAA taking away data measuring equiptment and doing other things to change the results? If we continued warming, you wouldn’t need to do anything other than sit back and watch as their theory takes charge.

Within this winter of 09-10, we may see another selection of locations in which all-time cold records are threatened we may even see another new state record for cold sometime in either January or February 2010 when New York City experiences a few days in which they struggle to get out of the single digits and nights get into the old territory of below zero. I predict this winter will bring below zero air as far south as Baltimore and DC and one of the worst snowstorms since the 70s the precedes a fiercely cold high!! We may see a blizzard cripple the DC-NY-Boston corridor before an Arctic high settles in from Ontario and Quebec which brings 50 to 60 below zero nights to central Ontario and Quebec. Somewhere in New England including Maine may face a week to two below zero and see nights get as cold if not colder than the cold outbreak of January 2004. That particular cold spell brought New York to 1 degree and 45 below to Mt Washington, NH. This time around New Hampshire may end of rewriting the history books and end of with a brand new low around -50, deeming the old -47 record, history.

New Jersey we see nights hit -20, Massachussetts -30, Boston -10 or colder and New York’s Central Park get to between -2 and -5. DC could shiver to zero or lower!!

My reason for this very blunt article is that with the trend of the El Nino and the likelyhood that the warm cool pushes into the central equatorial Pacific and cooling shows up off South America, the pattern that’s been shaping this very type of severity of Eastern winter the past few years and the very low solar wind and low solar irradiance is greatly concerning me, not forgetting the kind of summer just witnessed across the eastern third, the signs are screaming for such a winter to come and this for me is the winter which will rewrite the history books and bring to the front row the shouts and screams of a coming ice age.

The winter in 09-10 for the West will be mild overall but an intense cold wave early on (December) may bring fears of a brutal winter from the California Sierra to the western High Plains but as the pattern establishes itself and ridging develops over the North Pacific into Alaska and the Arctic, the vast pool of super cold air will then filter into the heart of the eastern US and brings one of the worst blasts of Arctic air not seen seen the late 70s.

This will be a sure sign of whats ahead, though we continue to see publications regularly promote global warming goodies such as the warmest summer ocean temperatures on record, yet we fail to see the seasonal number top 5 in the Atlantic and only one super typhoon we will begin to see a more uniform cooling down of both land and ocean as the sun begins to hide into hibernation and the Atlantic turns cold. The worst is still ahead by about 20 years but winters of great harshness may be only a few months away and it will only get worse as we see before our eyes the freeze over of the global warming idea as ice flow start to head from New York harbor into the Atlantic and from the Thames into the North Sea. Great Britain may also see one of it’s worst winters in 30 years with new record lows set and a potential threat to the national all-time low. Making last winter a mere wake-up call. See post here.