BBC ever so subtly tries to blame humans - MSNBC uses a hammer
5 April 2011 - “The ozone layer has seen unprecedented damage in the Arctic this winter due to cold weather in the upper atmosphere,” says this article by BBC environmental correspondent Richard Black.
“By the end of March, 40% of the ozone in the stratosphere had been destroyed, against a previous record of 30%,” says Black.
Severe ozone depletion has been seen over Scandinavia, Greenland, and parts of Canada and Russia.
It must have pained the BBC to publish this, because their headline - “Arctic ozone levels in never-before-seen plunge” - carefully avoids the word “cold.”
However, I will give them credit for admitting - in the very first paragraph - that the damage is due to cold weather in the upper atmosphere.
Then, in an apparent attempt to switch the focus onto humans, Black reminds us that ozone “is destroyed by reactions with industrial chemicals.” He also speaks of the Montreal Protocol, which was meant to control the amount of (supposed) ozone-depleting gases that we nasty humans pump into the atmosphere.
“So it’s really a combination of the gases still there and low temperatures and then sunshine, and then you get ozone loss,” says Black, quoting Geir Braathen with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
“We have some winters that get much colder than before and also the cold periods last longer, into the spring,” said Braathen. “The destructive reactions are promoted by cold conditions (below -78C) in the stratosphere.”
Did you know that cold weather had anything to do with the so-called “ozone hole”?
“Usually in cold winters we observe that about 25% of the ozone disappears, but this winter was really a record - 40% of the column has disappeared,” said Dr Florence Goutail from the French National Centre for Scientific Research.
Winters getting colder
“Research by Markus Rex from the Alfred Wegener Institute in Germany suggests that winters that stand out as being cold in the Arctic stratosphere are getting colder.”
“For the next few decades, the [Arctic ozone] story is driven by temperatures, and we don’t understand what’s driving this [downward] trend,” he said.
“It’s a big challenge to understand it and how it will drive ozone loss over coming decades.”
An annual occurrence in the Antarctic
Though this is apparently a new phenomenon in the Arctic, ozone depletion triggered by the cold occurs annually in the Antarctic,” says Black. “The longer and colder Antarctic winters often see 55% of the ozone depleted.”
MSNBC mentions colder weather only once
Meanwhile, MSNBC also covered this subject. On the same day, as a matter of fact. But for some reason, they mentioned the colder weather only once.
Only once!
Colder weather in the upper atmosphere is the whole point of the story - and they mention it only once! Sort of an unimportant filler. They actually make it look as if chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) are the causing factor.
The record ozone loss “comes despite the “very successful” Montreal Protocol aimed at cutting production and consumption of ozone-destroying chemicals such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons,” the MSNBC article warns.
“The substances were once present in refrigerators, spray cans and fire extinguishers, but have been phased out.” (Talk about trying to blame humans!)
“Nevertheless, due to the long lifetimes of these compounds in the atmosphere, it will take several decades before their concentrations return to pre-1980 levels.”
MSNBC entitled their article “Scientists: Arctic ozone depletion ‘unprecedented.” Their title, as with the BBC’s, makes no mention of cold weather being the cause.
Compare the two articles. I think you’ll be amazed at MSNBC’s duplicity.
Robert W. Felix is publisher of www.iceagenow.com and author of Not by Fire but by Ice, in which he maintains that the next ice age could begin any day. In fact, he believes it has already begun.
The South Central United States has been in a significant drought this past 6 months. In parts of the western Gulf, deficits the last 6 months exceed 20 inches (first map). Note that the western areas are semi-arid so the deficits are much smaller in absolute terms but are very dry in percent relative to normal (second map).
The driest October through March periods in the Southern Region (as defined by the following NCDC map) ending in March of the year shown are listed below the map. The bold years are the analogs for last winter. Note also that 13 of the 20 top driest years (average 6 month precipitation for the region shown in inches) were La Nina and all but one of the other neutral (La Nada) seasons.
2010/11 ranked fourth driest. When the media tries to blame global warming, please note only 1996, 2000 and 2006 appear on the list from the last 30 years.
The National Drought Mitigation Center (UNL) drought monitor analysis as of last week showed this region was in trouble extending back to the western plains. The numbers have been growing week to week as drought tends to beget drought.
Taking the top years and compositing them for May to August indicates the precipitation should stay subnormal. It would take a landfalling tropical system to make a quick dent in the deficits (not impossible given the warm Gulf although composites suggest Rio Grande track).
We will discuss impacts in our ag summaries. Both daily blogs for Joe Bastardi and I and sample ag summaries are available for all for a few more weeks at http://www.weatherbell.com/ (blogs in the premium section). We are both holding back on how much forecast detail we provide that will be available for clients. Both of us will be doing written and video blogs.
Use of language is one of the main factors which defines humanity. At its best, it can not only express our deepest feelings and be a source of great beauty, but also put across complex concepts with clarity and lack of ambiguity. However, language can also be misused and be deliberately misleading. Most obviously, this is in the form of propaganda, but more subtle misuse can be just as bad. This is as true in the case of science as for politics, finance or other areas.
It is often assumed that misuse of a concept can change its meaning quite easily, by simple repetition. There are two ways of looking at this. Lenin is quoted as saying “a lie told often enough becomes the truth”, whereas Franklin Roosevelt took a different view when he said “repetition does not transform a lie into a truth”. Although apparently incompatible, each is equally valid in its own way. The Bolshevik view, unfortunately, tends to reflect real human behaviour: if people only hear a single view they tend - at least superficially - to accept it as the truth.
But Roosevelt’s more idealistic interpretation is equally well-founded because, although there may be general acceptance of an officially-sanctioned version of the truth, the fundamental reality does not change. Anyone who wants to look at the evidence rather than accept seemingly authoritative statements can discover the underlying truth for themselves.
Take, for example, the term ‘carbon dioxide pollution’, which has become commonplace. The Oxford dictionary defines pollution as ‘the presence in or introduction into the environment of a substance which has harmful or poisonous effects’. This seems fairly unambiguous, and the only argument about, for example, sub-micron carbon particulates in the air, copper and other heavy metals in the soil or harmful bacteria in water would be about the maximum acceptable level. There can be little doubt that each is a form of pollution and may be harmful.
Carbon dioxide, on the other hand, is vital to life on Earth. Without it, plants could not photosynthesise. Without photosynthesis, there would be no oxygen. Without oxygen, there would be no life apart from anaerobic bacteria. To consider it to be a pollutant therefore seems somewhat perverse.
The reason, of course, is that computer modelling based on the enhanced greenhouse hypothesis projects potentially significant increases to global temperatures, with major impacts on weather patterns and sea level which could compromise the lives of whole swathes of the population. And, although its contribution to warming is lower than water vapour, carbon dioxide is more persistent in the atmosphere and all the evidence is that burning fossil fuels is causing a fairly consistent year-on-year increase.
For those who consider the enhanced greenhouse effect to be the most plausible explanation of the way the temperature record has evolved over the last decades (or even for those who are not wholly convinced but believe that the consequences of taking no action could be disastrous), it is a natural step to emphasise their view in language which the public understands and will not simply ignore. Hence, a small but steady increase in the atmospheric level of a trace gas essential for life has become ‘pollution’. Repeated often enough, this has become a term which is used unquestioningly, but the underlying facts are unchanged for those who care to look.
There are other examples, including ‘addiction’ to oil. Turning back to the Oxford dictionary, addicted is defined as ‘physically and mentally dependent on a particular substance’. In a narrow sense, modern societies could be seen as addicted to oil (or, more broadly, energy) since they are indeed physically dependent. But if we say this, we would have to agree that we are also addicted to food, warmth and oxygen. Nevertheless, politicians have brought the phrase into common use in an effort to promote a transition from fossil fuels to renewable sources of energy.
Use of renewable energy is a key part of the modern drive for sustainability. The appropriate dictionary definition of sustainable is ‘conserving an ecological balance by avoiding depletion of natural resources’, while according to the Brundtland Commission in 1987, ‘sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.’
This is a tricky concept, and one about which there is significant disagreement. In most circles, it is accepted that there are three primary components: environmental, social and economic. However, there are many people on the more radical wing of the environmental movement who believe that economic growth is in itself the problem and is intrinsically unsustainable. They envisage some post-industrial utopia and would like to see emerging economies such as China avoid the energy-dependent growth which the industrialised world has experienced (to the great benefit of their populations).
Even those who take a more balanced view of sustainability see progress occurring on a steady and pre-ordained path, with the future essentially being more of the same. Experience shows that life is not like that. Progress is catalysed by a series of disruptive innovations or events which change the nature of society. The evolution of farming was one, and arguably still the most significant. Harnessing the energy from coal, oil and gas was certainly another game-changer, and the rapid development of solid state electronics, computers and communications networks has been the most recent major trend to change our way of life fundamentally.
The concept of long-term sustainability is deeply flawed. Nevertheless, it embodies plenty of self-evident commonsense in the short term. Farmers must maintain the health and productivity of their soil if they are to grow crops consistently year after year. Societies must ensure an adequate supply of clean water to cope with demands for the foreseeable future. They must also provide secure energy supplies to their populations, but this security is already being compromised by present moves towards so-called sustainable renewable energy sources.
The list of misleading language could go on. Its use is only likely to increase, as language is one of the most powerful weapons people can employ. The big question is whether the effect is as Lenin suggested, or whether FDR was closer to the truth. Are people genuinely misled, or do they make up their own minds if they see the evidence differently? Everyday conversations and consumer surveys would suggest that in many cases Roosevelt was - thankfully - more accurate.
But this should not make use blind to the dangers of simply taking news stories or political speeches at face value. In democratic countries, there seems little danger of governments deliberately taking us down a path towards some kind of Orwellian Newspeak, but there is an insidious focus on ‘correct’ terminology from a range of interest groups. The lesson for all of us must be to look behind the words.
Forecast Update - April 6, 2011 by Dr Phil Klotzbach and Dr. William Gray, CSU
We continue to foresee well above-average activity for the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season. Our seasonal forecast has been reduced slightly from early December, since there is a little uncertainty about ENSO and the maintenance of anomalously warm tropical Atlantic SST conditions. We continue to anticipate an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall.
Information obtained through March 2011 indicates that the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season will have significantly more activity than the average 1950-2000 season.
We estimate that 2011 will have about 9 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 16 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 5 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 10 major hurricane days (average is 5.0).
The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2011 to be approximately 175 percent of the long-term average.
We have decreased our seasonal forecast slightly from early December, due to anomalous warming in the eastern and central tropical Pacific and cooling in the tropical Atlantic.
This forecast is based on a new extended-range early April statistical prediction scheme that utilizes 29 years of past data. Analog predictors are also utilized. We expect current La Nina conditions to transition to near-neutral conditions during the heart of the hurricane season. Overall, conditions remain conducive for a very active hurricane season.
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
1) Entire U.S. coastline - 72% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida - 48% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 47% (average for last century is 30%)
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE TRACKING INTO THE CARIBBEAN (10-20N, 60-88W)
1) 61% (average for last century is 42%
All the detail behind the forecast can be found in the PDF.
See my discussion on the upcoming season here. Here is an account of the Hurricane of ‘38, a La Nina summer.
In his testimony Richard Muller (which I posted on Friday April 2 2011), indicated that he used 2% of the available surface stations that measure temperatures in the BEST assessment of long-term trends. It is important to realize that the sampling is still biased if a preponderance of his data sources comes from a subset of actual landscape types. The sampling will necessarily be skewed towards those sites.
If the BEST data came from a different distribution of locations than the GHCNv.2, however, then his results would add important new insight into the temperature trend analyses. If they have the same spatial distribution, however, they would not add anything beyond confirming that NCDC, GISS and CRU were properly using the collected raw data.
We discuss this bias in station locations in our paper
Montandon, L.M., S. Fall, R.A. Pielke Sr., and D. Niyogi, 2011: Distribution of landscape types in the Global Historical Climatology Network. Earth Interactions, 15:6, doi: 10.1175/2010EI371
The abstract reads [highlight added]
“The Global Historical Climate Network version 2 (GHCNv.2) surface temperature dataset is widely used for reconstructions such as the global average surface temperature (GAST) anomaly. Because land use and land cover (LULC) affect temperatures, it is important to examine the spatial distribution and the LULC representation of GHCNv.2 stations. Here, nightlight imagery, two LULC datasets, and a population and cropland historical reconstruction are used to estimate the present and historical worldwide occurrence of LULC types and the number of GHCNv.2 stations within each. Results show that the GHCNv.2 station locations are biased toward urban and cropland (>50% stations versus 18.4% of the world’s land) and past century reclaimed cropland areas (35% stations versus 3.4% land). However, widely occurring LULC such as open shrubland, bare, snow/ice, and evergreen broadleaf forests are underrepresented (14% stations versus 48.1% land), as well as nonurban areas that have remained uncultivated in the past century (14.2% stations versus 43.2% land). Results from the temperature trends over the different landscapes confirm that the temperature trends are different for different LULC and that the GHCNv.2 stations network might be missing on long-term larger positive trends. This opens the possibility that the temperature increases of Earth’s land surface in the last century would be higher than what the GHCNv.2-based GAST analyses report.”
This derived surface temperature trends is higher than what BEST found. However, this also means that the divergence between the surface temperature trends and the lower tropopsheric temperature trends that we found in
Klotzbach, P.J., R.A. Pielke Sr., R.A. Pielke Jr., J.R. Christy, and R.T. McNider, 2009: An alternative explanation for differential temperature trends at the surface and in the lower troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D21102, doi:10.1029/2009JD011841.
is even higher. This difference suggests that unresolved issues, including a likely systematic warm bias, remains in the analysis of long term surface temperature trends.
