This is a paper that will be celebrated with great joy and fervor by the great sea of people who are worried, near unto death, that “climate change” is going to cause the destruction of all things.
Roy showed that, “The observed rate of global warming over the past 50 years has been weaker than that predicted by almost all computerized climate models.”
And that, “Climate models that guide energy policy do not even conserve energy, a necessary condition for any physically based model of the climate system.”
He concluded: “Public policy should be based on climate observations-which are rather unremarkable-rather than climate models that exaggerate climate impacts.”
What wonderful news! News sure to be welcomed by activists, politicians, and exhausted windmill replacement blade salesmen the world over!
All those people who drag themselves out to early morning marches can sleep in! Been considering gluing yourself to works of art or the asphalt? No need! And you needn’t keep your appointment with your therapist to work on your devastating climate anxiety. Hallelujah, there is nothing to be anxious about!
I fully expect the White House will invite Roy to receive some kind of medal or award for the great scientific service he has done our panicked nation, and indeed the world. There is no reason for the anxious, nerve-wracking despair we have seen from all quarters. The order of the day shall be Stand Down and Enjoy the Weather!
Right?
Here’s the best bits, which are so good they’re self-explanatory.
We’ll come back to that caption in a moment. Because what it means is that things are even better than Roy has suggested, sober and cautious man that he is.
This is the kind of plot scientists or yore would look at and say, “Oops.” As we are confident modern scientists will do, too. They got it wrong, and badly wrong. Embarrassingly wrong. So wrong that they will surely go back and fix the mistakes before allowing anybody to even see, let alone rely on their models.
What I like best about this are those three lines, the green, black, and blue ones, which show the average temperatures from three different measurement sources. I make the discrepancy between the three 0.2C at the end, or perhaps a bit larger. Say, that’s a lot, isn’t it? Especially when the hand-wringing in the “climate community” has been over tenths of a degree changes.
What this means is that there is more uncertainty in climate measurements than what is normally considered. So much more uncertainty that it is yet another reason not to worry. The good news multiplies!
Roy goes on to suggest why climate models produce too much warming, and gives hints about other causes besides man that account for observed signals in temperature. Read the whole report. It’s good - and cheering!
He says things like, “The models must be ‘tuned’ to produce no climate change, and then a human influence is added in the form of a very small, roughly 1 percent change in the global energy balance.” This kind of tuning over such a small signal would make any model hyper-sensitive to the tuning. Which indeed we see.
Let’s return to the footnote on the first plot, which brings us to this site. Which you might want to play with. One word you’ll see on the site is ‘hindcasts’. I don’t want to get into the details today, but what it means is that past data is used to make predictions of the past. The past data is first used to create the models which make the predictions.
Nothing wrong with that, of course, because models have to be built somehow. But it does mean hindcasts-predictions of past data that was used once already in creating the models-will be better than forecasts, which are predictions of data never before seen.
So that when we look at the first picture and it looks like the models did better in the past, the reason for that is at least partly because the models are tuned to that data. Which means that true model performance is better estimated at the ends of the series. Which is worse performance. Which is more good news!
Another thing I think is true here (though I welcome correction) is that these are all one- or a few-time-periods-ahead predictions. That is, a climate model today could make monthly or yearly temperature predictions for next month or next year, or two months ahead or two years. Or three years, four, and so on. The predictions farther out will, all evidence suggests, be worse, and even far worse, than predictions made one time period ahead.
I think these pictures are all one-time-period-ahead predictions (made one at a time). If so, and if the farther-out predictions are worse like we expect them, and given the poor performance of these models near term, then that means we must put even less (or even no) trust in long-term predictions.
Which, again, is more great news! Whoo-hooo!, as The View audience would hoot. Because if the models are that bad, there’s no reason to get worked up over them.
I saved the best news for last. Most of what knots peoples’ panties about “climate change” are not small changes in some weird artificial global average temperature, but all the bad stuff that “climate change” is said will cause. Which is every bad thing.
Don’t you see why that’s terrific? Since the climate is not as bad as the models predicted, all that other bad stuff can’t be so bad either. Fantastic! Let us hear the sighs of relief sure to greet this spectacular news!
Democrats accuse Trump of proclivities that they blatantly engage in, especially in Washington
Paul Driessen
I choked on my coffee when I read the headline: “Democrats raise specter of Trump dictatorship to boost Biden.” What a textbook example of “projection,” I laughed, referring to the psychology term for deflecting attention away from one’s own blatant behavior by claiming someone else is doing it.
Partisan media and politicos parroted the accusation, and the Biden campaign doubled down.
In the interest of fairness and accuracy, it’s appropriate then to revisit ways the Biden Administration, Democrats and their allies have battled wannabe dictators and defended freedom, democracy and viewpoint diversity in recent years. (Or not.) For example:
* Incessant Antifa rage, riots, rampaging and legal warfare against “Russia-colluding” President Trump, from his election and inauguration throughout and after his term in office.
* School, park and restaurant lockdowns, “social distancing” and mask “advisories,” mandates for “safe and effective” inoculations with vaccines approved with minimal study under “emergency use authorizations”, and endless misrepresentation and censorship by Biden officials, Democrat governors and “journalists” in the name of preventing Covid.
* Opening our southern border to untold millions of “undocumented noncitizens” mostly Latin Americans but also Chinese agents, drug smugglers, sex traffickers, terrorists and disease carriers.
* Billions in “student debt forgiveness,” forcing taxpayers to pay off huge loans to graduates who struggle to get six-figure jobs despite prestigious degrees in gender studies or community organizing.
* Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) and Environment Social Governance (ESG) programs, from K-12, college to law school, and into government and corporate arenas -to ensure that every component of society reflects racial, ethnic and gender proportionality, but never viewpoint or political diversity.
These and many other authoritarian actions impacted American society, freedoms, health and prosperity in countless negative ways. Far worse, many progressives and leftists hope they will pave the way for obeisance to even more dictatorial mandates promulgated in the name of saving our planet from supposed cataclysms inflicted by fossil-fuel-driven climate change.
Few will quibble that President Biden directed federal employees to take public transportation, ride bikes or rent electric vehicles for work travel, and hold virtual meetings instead of in-person gatherings.
These rules certainly won’t apply to private-jet globe-trotters like Climate Czar John Kerry, and EV’s mostly transfer emissions from tailpipes to distant countries where toxic pollution and child labor accompany the mining and processing of raw materials to make EV batteries. But at least some federal workers will now suffer the inconveniences they’re imposing on us commoners.
However, Team Biden’s endless torrent of dictatorial executive orders, regulatory mandates and twisted legal reinterpretations for electricity generation, vehicles, appliances, agriculture, housing and other matters are already impacting our industries, livelihoods, living standards and basic rights and freedoms.
These diktats are designed to force us to convert everything we now operate with coal, gasoline, diesel or natural gas to electric models. The United States will soon need 3-4 times more electricity than today - and still more to power the AI revolution.
But the same bureaucrats are shutting down coal, gas, nuclear and hydroelectric generators ensuring that electricity will be in short supply, generated primarily by weather-dependent wind turbines and solar panels, backed up by massive grid-scale battery systems, and thus unavailable or unaffordable during the coldest and hottest days, when electric heat or air conditioning becomes a matter of life or death.
In fact, just the batteries to back up nationwide electricity would cost up to $290 trillion (13 times US 2021 GDP)! Add that to wind, solar and transmission costs, and the juice to run your all-electric home, business, hospital, school or transportation will likely cost 30-40 cents per kilowatt-hour, instead of the 12-15 cents the average American is paying now.
It’s a prescription for repeated blackouts, economic disaster - and unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats micromanaging every aspect of our lives: what size home we can have; how warm or cool we can keep it; what cars we can drive and how far, or whether we too will be forced to walk, bike or take a bus; how many trips we can take in jetliners, in our lifetime; what foods we can eat (hint: not beef); maybe even how many new clothing items we will be “allowed” to purchase each year!
Earlier this month, every House Republican voted to block President Biden’s electric vehicle mandates. They were joined by just five Democrats. That means 197 Democrats say Team Biden should be able to dictate what kind of car or truck you can drive. And Donald Trump has dictatorial proclivities?
The US and global ecological impacts will be equally harmful and widespread. Here are just a few.
Wind and solar installations, transmission lines and enormous battery complexes would sprawl across millions of acres of now scenic, wildlife habitat and agricultural land. A single solar facility proposed in Virginia would involve 3,000 acres of panels on 21,000 acres (over half the land area of Washington, DC). It’s just one of dozens of Virginia solar plans - on top of onshore and offshore wind turbine projects.
The installations “will power millions of homes,” supporters insist. Perhaps- but only when the wind is blowing and sun is shining at optimal intensities… maybe 15-30% of the year in northern latitudes, considering winter snow and sunlight, clouds, nighttime, zero wind and other factors.
Many local residents and other citizens don’t want these massive installations in their backyards; the habitat and scenic vista destruction, bird and bat killings, health problems, and electricity costs and disruptions that go with them; or being turned into energy colonies for progressive urban centers. They’ve already blocked more than 500 wind and solar projects, on environmental and other grounds.
That’s why Michigan, California, New York and Illinois have already enacted laws that give state bureaucrats authority over land use - the ability to exercise eminent domain and other powers over local governments that want to slow or stop the onrush of enormous, heavily subsidized industrial wind, solar, transmission line and other “green’ projects. More are likely to follow - depriving rural communities of their rights, property values and autonomy - to serve corporate interests that bankroll Democrat pols.
The federal “deep state” is likely to seek similar legislative authority - or simply assert authority - to implement President Biden’s national net-zero “renewable” energy transformation agenda.
UN and Biden “30x30” plans to “conserve” (make off limits to development) 30% of US and global lands and waters by 2030 will massively increase all these impacts and usurpations of power. Any areas not made off limits by 30x30, wilderness, park, refuge and other actions will be developed and desecrated to the hilt by wind, solar, transmission line, mining, biofuel and other “green energy” projects.
Meanwhile, international climate alarmists and bureaucrats are telling African and other impoverished nations how much they will be “permitted” to develop and improve their health and living standards - using only “sustainable, renewable” wind and solar power. It’s dictatorial colonialism at its worst.
And amid all that, China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and other rapidly developing countries are burning more coal, oil and gas ‘ and emitting more greenhouse gases - than most developed nations combined. That means US and EU economic suicide on the climate altar won’t make an iota of difference.
What we need is a president who will roll back or cancel these dictatorial decrees. Stop fast-tracking wind and solar projects. End abusive environmental justice, DEI and ESG programs. Return America to energy independence and affordable energy. Build the wall and control immigration. Stop weaponizing the Department of Justice. Above all, follow the law and Constitution.
How revolutionary, “dictatorial”. and refreshing… that would be!
Paul Driessen is senior policy advisor to the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (www.CFACT.org) and author of books and articles on energy, climate, environmental and human rights issues.
The Grand Solar Minimum is a time when The Sun goes into a kind of hibernation, where Planet Earth will not be receiving the heat it normally depends on to carry out most of life’s necessities. Solar Cycles run every 11 years, some have lasted 6 cycles.
Major challenges will be arriving all at once, such as finding, growing, cooking, and storing food. Many of us will be faced with not being able to receive power from the standard electric & gas companies that we totally depend on.
Transportation infrastructure will be affecting supply chains and basic levels of transportation such as buses, trains, and cars. Heating our homes will be imperative!
Dr. Valentina Zharkova, founder of ZVS Research Enterprise Ltd, at Solargsm.com. is a Solar Physicist, Mathematician, Teacher, and professor, who joins us to share her scientific findings about our main star, The Sun.
She shares how and the Suns’ Activity has impacted life in the distant past and why our ability to measure it is so advanced, that we will have a front-row seat at this Earthly Cycle.
This interview is about leaving you with a totally different framework in which to clearly understand the importance of this Solar Cycle & why it’s urgent that we understand how the Sun works, and how measuring it has totally changed over the last 2-300 years. You and your loved ones still have time to prepare for this upcoming Solar Cycle.
It’s advisable to have paper and pen with you so that you don’t miss the key distinctions that you would ordinarily not receive in ordinary climate science data and discussions.
Share this with everyone you know and care about. Don’t miss this Special!
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It’s Rainmaking Time Weather and Climate stories here
Dr. Valentina Zharkova’s recent talks at the international meetings about the modern grand solar minimum (2020-2053) and the role of orbital motion of the Sun on the temperature increase on Earth and other planets (with ppt files)
* Presentation at the International Conference in Astrophysics, 23-25 May 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine: Comparison of solar activity indices: sunspots and eigen vectors and the modern Grand Solar Minimum in progress (2020-2053) download
* Presentation at the International Conference in Astrophysics, 23-25 May 2023, Kyiv, Ukraine: Periods of solar activity and orbital asymmetry of solar radiation deposition into the terrestrial atmosphere download
Tedros Ghebreyesus, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), wrote on X, formerly known as Twitter, “the hottest month [July] just ended. We witnessed scorching heat, extreme weather events, wildfires, and severe health consequences.”
He added, “It’s a stark reminder of the urgent need for collective action to address climate change. Let’s use this alarming milestone to fuel our determination for bold climate action.
“Together, we can turn up the heat on sustainable solutions and create a cooler, more resilient world for generations to come.”
Myron Ebel, director and senior fellow at the Center for Energy and Environment, notes that while June and July were hot in many locations, others - such as Los Angeles with the 10th coolest June on recent record according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - experienced below-average temperatures.
On July 27, President Biden stated that “record temperatures - and I mean record - are now affecting more than 100 million Americans. Puerto Rico reached a 125-degree heat index last month. San Antonio hit an all-time heat index high of 117 last month.”
Rather than citing actual temperatures where, according to the National Weather Service (NWS), Puerto Rico on the day referenced was 95 degrees - not 125 - since index measurements combine temperature and relative humidity.
According to the NWS, San Antonio’s 117-degree heat index that month resulted from just three days of 105-degree temperatures from June 19-21.
And whereas Houston experienced 10-degree-higher-than-average July temperatures, some rural Texas towns such as Water Valley at 99.8 degrees compared with a prior 97-degree average reflected little change.
Climatologist and professor John Christy, director of the University of Alabama Huntsville Earth Science Center, points out that “regionally, the West has seen its largest number of hot summer records in the past 100 years, but the Ohio Valley and Upper Midwest are experiencing their fewest.”
As Dr. Christy, also a former NASA scientist, observes, “for the conterminous U.S. as a whole, the last 10 years have produced only an average number of records...The 1930s are still champs [for producing the most 100-plus temperature days in a year].
Conveniently omitted in alarmist reports is the U.S. Historical Climate Network (USHCN) temperature data for contiguous states, revealing that the number of days over 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius), which peaked in the 1930s has been in an 80-year overall decline.
Bear in mind that this preceded the 1940s when World War II weapons industries released massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Nevertheless, global temperatures declined in fits-and-starts from the mid-1940s until the late 1970s, when most of the climate science establishment and media were predicting the beginning of the next Ice Age with galloping glaciers threatening Manhattan.
A decade later, abetted by then- Sen Al Gore’s feverish 1988 hearings in Congress in concert with the U.N.’s obsession with passing the Kyoto Protocol global wealth redistribution plan capping CO2 in developed countries - mainly the U.S. -its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) declared an opposite and imminent global warming emergency which continues to give a pass to China, the world’s largest emitter.
Whereas Christy and virtually all other informed climatologists fully recognize that climate obviously changes due to numerous complex natural factors and that a warming trend has ensued since the three-century-long so-called “Little Ice Age” ended in the mid-1800s, we shouldn’t confuse 30-year-long climate attributions with decadal and shorter regional weather patterns and occurrences.
Christy told the Epoch Times that global satellite readings he measured with meteorologist colleague Roy Spencer which go back only to 1979, show that while last July was the warmest by about a quarter of a degree, an “early and strong El Nino” was a “major factor” in the increase.
The term “El Nino” refers to entirely natural, relatively short multi-year periodic events in the Pacific Ocean leading to warmer temperatures in North and South America which are typically followed by La Nina’s that reverse results to cooler circumstances with trade winds that push warm water toward Asia.
All-in-all, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) data does show that average global surface temperatures have increased by two degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) since the pre-industrial era (1880-1900), and few will argue that CO2 hasn’t had some (yet unmeasurable) contribution.
Confirming that recent satellite data shows global temperatures rising steadily at about 0.23 degrees Fahrenheit every decade, Christy nevertheless emphasizes that we should understand that this current trend is bouncing back from the 19th century, which was one of the coldest in the last 10,000 years.
The Roman Warm Period two thousand years ago was just as warm or warmer, as was the Medieval Warm Period a thousand years ago - long before mankind introduced smokestacks and SUVs
Let’s also be mindful that CO2 is essential to plant food that satellites reveal is making our world greener, extending growing seasons, feeding more people and other of God’s creatures, and fundamentally extending and improving our lives.
Whereas President Biden claims, “I don’t think anybody can deny the impact of climate change anymore,” where “the No. 1 weather-related killer is heat - 600 people die annually from its effects,” he fails to mention that cold weather conditions kill far more each year.
According to the Breakthrough Institute, heat is responsible for about 500,000 annual deaths worldwide, while cold temperatures account for 4.6 million excess fatalities.
It’s also high time for Director-General Tedros Ghebreyesus to come clean and set records straight on WHO’s botched information about COVID-19 before again misrepresenting facts about weather.
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See the years with the highest all-time state temperatures here.
More Climate Alarmists Misinformation about Emperor Penguin’s Breeding Failure!
The recently published paper by Peter Fretwell titled Record Low 2022 Antarctic Sea Ice led to Catastrophic Breeding Failure of Emperor Penguins, set off a wave of misinformed doomsday articles, as his introduction stated “Recent efforts to predict emperor penguin population trends from forecasts of sea ice loss have painted a bleak picture, showing that if present rates of warming persist over 90% of emperor colonies will be quasi-extinct by the end of this century.
A sea ice physicist at the British Antarctic Survey added to the fearmongering stating “This paper dramatically reveals the connection between sea ice loss and ecosystem annihilation. Climate change is melting sea ice at an alarming rate.”
However, there was absolutely no evidence the lack of sea ice was due melting from global warming. All previous research has shown because of the extreme cold melt ponds are rarely observed in Antarctica. The annual loss of fast-ice (ice fastened to the shore) that Emperors often use for a breeding, is largely due to breakouts, not melting. And a careful examination of the 5 colonies that Fretwell analyzed, strongly suggest the paper’s claims were just promoting the climate crisis hoax.
Nonetheless, the dishonest doomsday internet activist GoGreen@ecowarriorss pounced on the misinformation and tweeted “Emperor penguins suffer ‘unprecedented’ breeding failure as sea ice disappears Ultimately, they cannot survive in an ever warming world and neither can we or most other species bar cockroaches and a few other hardy species. MSN.com fearmongered, “Emperor penguins are running out of ice to breed on.’
Click bait media like USA Today headlined, “Climate change hits emperor penguins: Chicks are dying and extinction looms, study finds ‘stating “due to the dramatic loss of sea ice, several colonies of emperor penguins in Antarctica face “quasi-extinction” in the decades to come. And as expected CNN wrote, “‘Catastrophic’loss: Huge colonies of emperor penguins saw no chicks survive last year as sea ice disappears.;
But Fretwell’s 5 colonies in the Bellingshausen Sea (circled region) were NOT huge as illustrated by the small circles. Furthermore, climate scientists had determined that atmospheric circulation variability over the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea is larger than in any other region of the Southern Hemisphere, which is why the fast-ice extent is so variable there and so prone to the early breakouts that happened in 2022. The regions instability also suggests the 5 colonies were likely only temporary.
1. Satellites first discovered the Bryant Coast colony in 2014, but there were no penguins observed there in 2010.
2. The Pfrogner Point colony was only discovered in 2019. Its estimated population of 1200 pairs bred on a stable ice shelf, not on fast ice. Yet they still abandoned the colony in November.
3. There was no breeding failure on the Rothschild Island colony because there, fast-ice persisted as needed until the end of December.
4. Smyley Island colony was first discovered in 2009, and its populations vary wildly, between 1000 and 6500 breeding pairs.
5. The Verdi Inlet colony was first discovered by satellite in 2018 and its population also varied wildly.
Tremendous sea ice variability in the Bellingshausen Sea is caused by the shifting location and strength of the quasi-permanent pressure system, known as the Amundsen Low. As seen in the illustration, the Amundsen Low’s clockwise circulation caused reduced sea ice (red) in the Bellingshausen Sea and above average sea ice (blue) in the Amundsen and Ross seas. Also notice there was no other loss of sea ice along the coast where Emperors breed. Low sea ice elsewhere (red) was caused when weaker winds did not extend the pack ice further away from the coast.
Years when the Amundsen Low is stronger, the winds in the Bellingshausen Sea that blow towards the coast prevent sea ice expansion. Those stronger winds also carry more moisture and cause some of Antarctica’s most intense snowfalls. Heavy snowfall insulates the fast-ice and prevents warmer ocean heat from ventilating. That trapped heat then reduces the normal thickening of the fast-ice, making fast-ice in this region more vulnerable to breakouts.
Finally, the Amundsen Low is very sensitive to El Nino and La Nina events that shift the winds location and strength. The fast ice breakouts of the 5 colonies had nothing to do with a climate crisis but were driven by natural atmospheric circulation patterns unique to the Bellingshausen Sea.
Shame on all the alarmists that weaponized weather and natural penguin migrations to push a climate crisis!
See the story by David Siegel Jim highlighted here.
