Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow
In the embarrassing NCA model-biased government report leaked by the NYT the threat of model based future heat issues is greatly exaggerated. We live in the atmosphere not in a model world.
The trend towards heat in the real world is clearly DOWN not up. The number of state all time record highs peaked in the 1930s (23 states), 38 occurred before 1960. The number of days exceeding 100, 95 and 90 degrees in 1200 US stations have declined since the 1930s.
The headlines from the mainstream media and Soros funded alarmist science organizations want you to believe heat is increasing and has become or will soon become deadly.
Enlarged Courtesy of Tony Heller
Except in the west and despite a few brief intense heat spells most notably in July in the central, this summer has been relatively cool across the nation. Numerous friends and acquaintances from Colorado, Wisconsin, Georgia and the northeast have remarked at different times ‘it feels like fall’.
I asked Tony Heller to plot the number of 90, 95 and 100F days for the nation’s USHCN stations year to date. He did it for January through July.
Note 16% of the days in the nation in 1934 had 90F for that period. It was running 7% at the end of July this year.
9% of the days in all U.S. stations reached 95F. We are running under 3% through July in 2017.
5% of the days in all the stations reached 100F in 1936. We were just over 1% the end of July.
These all fit the plot of the number or state all-time record highs. The data and some of the charts in earlier versions of the government report that have been purged because they raised questions by anyone who might want to go by the cliff notes headlines which the lead authors want the media to focus on (very similar to the UN IPCC process).
Given how cold August has been outside the Pacific Northwest, this year should dip more the end of this month.
Enlarged Courtesy WeatherBELL Analytics LLC
Some hot days are still possible in September but the 46 day forecast extending to near the end of the month does not see big time heat returning.
Enlarged Courtesy WeatherBELL Analytics LLC
We may not be able to beat out 1904 but it appears we will rank among the least hot summers. The claims of increasing heat is shown to be not supportable by real world data. These data plots support the GAST research report findings recently published.
Appallingly in the NCA report, they can’t find evidence that all the claims they have made about the future are really happening so they invent a pathway to claim success. This problem is solved by a technique they call ”attribution without detection”. In other words “don’t believe your lying eyes, trust us”. An example would be saying that an increase in the probability or magnitude of a heat wave in the southeastern U.S. or Texas or drought in Texas or California was caused by GHG emissions when there’s been no upward trend in temperatures or droughts detected in those regions.
Check out Wednesday’s video for WeatherBELL that talks about the declining heat in the heartland.