The EPA technical support document proclaimed:

“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Climate model simulations suggest natural forcing alone (e.g., changes in solar irradiance) cannot explain the observed warming.”

That is because they only considered the brightness changes and solar irradiance/brightness changes only 0.1 to 0.15% in the 11 year cycle and perhaps 0.4% since the Little ice Age. They have ignored all the other solar factors like ultraviolet which can change 8-10% in the 11 year cycle and X-rays 100%. Nor did they consider the geomagnetic changes or the solar wind induced changes in cosmic rays which can alter low cloud cover (and albedo or reflectivity) by 1 or 2%.  Low clouds reflect sunshine. A quiet sun means less warming from radiation amplified by more cloudiness.  Duke’s Nicola Scafetta has estimated the total solar affects (direct and indirect) could explain 60% of the variance of global temperatures. Much of the other might be explained by urbanization and land use changes, He and his research partners found evidence for 60 year cycles in many data sets. The AMO and PDO are about 60-70 year cycles.

This chart comparing the AMO and the total solar irradiance computed by Hoyt/Schatten and Willson using muliple solar components and calibrated to the recent ACRIMSAT satellites is rather convincing for me. It shows a very tight tracking of the AMO with TSI since 1900.

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The AMO has a positive correlation most places across the northern hemisphere. This would explain the warmth since 1995. Note most warming is in the northern hemisphere.

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You can see the step ladder discontinuity in northern hemisphere temperatures after the AMO flip in 1995. No statistically significant warming is seen in the tropics and southern hemisphere.The positive PDO phase from 1977 to 1998 with its predominance of El Ninos which produce warming had shown a gradual warming.

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Look at how well the AMO correlates with the arctic temperatures.

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Add to the oceans and solar, the effects of volcanism - big volcanoes with cooling and quiet periods with warming and you can pretty much explain the observed changes despite the ‘models’. This also includes the arctic. Note next the cooling with high stratospheric aerosols and warming from low.

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Bringing it full circle and you have the sun tying nicely with arctic temperatures (after Soon).

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What does this mean for upcoming years/decades? Well if indeed the next few solar cycles harken back to the Dalton Minimum in the early 1800s, we can expect the Atlantic AMO to cool and global and arctic temperatures to decline. Throw in more volcanoes and winters will become even more memorable. We seem to be already on our way.

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Also note the trend towards cold winters in the US the last decade.

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Join us on Weatherbell.com.

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/GLOBAL_UAH_vs_PDO_AMO.jpg

First be sure to check out the excellent detective work that shows how Gore faked the CO2 experiment in the “Video analysis and scene replication suggests that Al Gore’s Climate Reality Project fabricated their Climate 101 video ”Simple Experiment” on WUWT. Kudos to Anthony and and the Gang.

Here is the Scripps study:
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PARIS - The ability of forests, plants and soil to suck carbon dioxide (CO2) from the air has been under-estimated, according to a study on Wednesday that challenges a benchmark for calculating the greenhouse-gas problem.

Like the sea, the land is a carbon “sink”, or sponge, helping to absorb heat-trapping CO2 disgorged by the burning of fossil fuels.

A conventional estimate is that soil and vegetation take in roughly 120 billion tonnes, or gigatonnes, of carbon each year through the natural process of photosynthesis.

The new study, published in the science journal Nature, says the uptake could be 25-45 percent higher, to 150-175 gigatonnes per year.

But relatively little of this extra carbon is likely to be stored permanently in the plant, say the researchers. Instead, it is likely to re-enter the atmosphere through plant respiration.

This will be a disappointment for those looking for some good news in the fight against climate change.

The more carbon is sequestered in the land, the less carbon enters the atmosphere, where it helps to trap heat from the Sun.

Lead researcher Lisa Welp, of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in the University of California at San Diego, said figuring out the annual carbon uptake from the terrestrial biosphere had been one of the biggest problems in the emissions equation.

Scientists, though, were confident about current estimates for carbon sequestration in land and this was unlikely to change much in the light of the new findings, she said.

“More CO2 is passing through plants (than thought), not that it actually stays there very long,” she said in email exchange with AFP.

“The extra CO2 taken up as photosynthesis is most likely returned right back to the atmosphere via respiration.”

The research looked at isotopes, or variations, in the oxygen component of CO2, using a databank of atmospheric sampling going back three decades.

These isotopes are a chemical tag, indicating the kind of water the molecule has come into contact with.

The researchers looked at isotopes whose concentrations are linked to rainfall.

They were struck by a clear association between these isotopes and El Nino, the weather cycle which occurs in pendulum swings every few years or so.

The implication from this is that CO2 is swiftly cycled through land ecosystems, the researchers suggest. From that assumption comes the far higher estimate of annual carbon uptake.

Warmist James Hansen: “If we stay on with business as usual, the southern U.S. will become almost uninhabitable”
Worldwide climate day of action hits streets of NYC | NYU’s Daily Student Newspaper

The event featured key members of the environmental advocacy community, including NASA climate scientist Dr. James Hansen, GRITtv founder Laura Flanders and Mohammed Waheed Hassan, vice president of the Maldives.

Hansen, 70, who in 1998 was the first person to testify before Congress about global warming, warned the crowd of the dangers of inaction.

“Climate change - human-made global warming - is happening,” he said. “It is already having noticeable impacts. ... If we stay on with business as usual, the southern U.S. will become almost uninhabitable.”

Storms of My Grandchildren: The Truth About the Coming Climate Catastrophe and Our Last Chance to Save Humanity, by James Hansen

When the history of the climate crisis is written, Hansen will be seen as the scientist with the most powerful and consistent voice calling for intelligent action to preserve our planet’s environment.

- Al Gore, Time Magazine

Actually here is the annual temperature plot from 1895 to 2010 for the southern US (TX, OK, MS, AR, KS) from NOAA NCDC even after the removed adjustments for urbanization growth which enhanced apparent warming.

Reuters reports,

“New research, to be published in the journal Climatic Change in November, suggests humankind may have to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere on a vast scale if emissions keep rising after 2020. The series of articles provide scenarios which will form the basis of the next report by the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2013 and 2014. At present emissions levels, in less than 20 years the sky would effectively be full, meaning every extra tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted would have to be removed to stay within safer climate limits, one lead author says.”

So the giant sucking sound we hear in 2030 won’t be NAFTA. It’ll be the CO2 extraction industry.

See Lubos Motl attack the IPCC propaganda here.

“At present emissions levels, in less than 20 years the sky would effectively be full, meaning every extra tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted would have to be removed to stay within safer climate limits.”

No typo. The classical alarmists were saying that the sky was warming. Then it was changing. Disrupting. Weirding. The Chicken Little has been saying that the sky was falling. All those verbs have been rendered obsolete. According to the IPCC 5th report, the sky is getting full and it will be effectively full by the year 2030.

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Prominent Scientist Tells Congress: Earth in ‘CO2 Famine’

‘The increase of CO2 is not a cause for alarm and will be good for mankind’

‘Children should not be force-fed propaganda, masquerading as science’

Washington, DC - Award-winning Princeton University Physicist Dr. Will Happer declared man-made global warming fears “mistaken” and noted that the Earth was currently in a “CO2 famine now.” Happer, who has published over 200 peer-reviewed scientific papers, made his remarks during today’s Environment and Public Works Full Committee Hearing entitled “Update on the Latest Global Warming Science.”

“Many people don’t realize that over geological time, we’re really in a CO2 famine now. Almost never has CO2 levels been as low as it has been in the Holocene (geologic epoch) - 280 (parts per million - ppm) - that’s unheard of. Most of the time [CO2 levels] have been at least 1000 (ppm) and it’s been quite a bit higher than that,” Happer told the Senate Committee. To read Happer’s complete opening statement click here: [Also: See Inhofe Warns of Costs of Massive $6.7 Trillion ‘Climate Bailout’ & ‘Consensus’ in Collapse: Japanese scientists make ‘dramatic break’ with UN hypothesis of man-made warming!  (UK Register) & $ave the Planet? ‘Four climate lobbyists for every member of Congress’ - Number of Lobbyists Up 300% & The Year of the Man-made Global Warming Skeptic ]

“Earth was just fine in those times,” Happer added. :The oceans were fine, plants grew, animals grew fine. So it’s baffling to me that we’re so frightened of getting nowhere close to where we started,” Happer explained. Happer also noted that “the number of [skeptical scientists] with the courage to speak out is growing” and he warned “children should not be force-fed propaganda, masquerading as science.”

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Corn versus Drought
World Climate Report

In the same volume of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, a second article appears with fabulous news for corn growers the world over. The article was written by five scientists with the US Department of Agriculture and the University of Maryland. The Chun et al. team notes early in the piece that “There have been many studies on the interaction of CO2 and water on plant growth. Under elevated CO2, less water is used to produce each unit of dry matter by reducing stomatal conductance.” Under elevated CO2 conditions, plants will simply use and need much less water to achieve the same outcome - yet another benefit of increased CO2 concentrations.

But what about corn? To find out, Chun et al. grew corn in chambers with CO2 concentrations at either 400 ppm or 800 ppm, and they varied the amount of water the plants would receive. At the end of the experiment, they concluded “Approximately 13–20% and 35% less water was used under the elevated CO2 conditions than under the ambient CO2 conditions, for the water stressed conditions and for the well-watered conditions, respectively. These results suggest that under increased CO2 concentrations as generally predicted in the future, less water will be required for corn plants than at present.” Their final two sentences are priceless as they tell us that the higher water use efficiency in the elevated CO2 chambers “indicates that less water was used under the elevated CO2 condition to produce similar biomass as that in the ambient CO2 treatment. This study suggests that less water will be required under high-CO2 environment in the future than at present.”

We realize that our future will see droughts in the corn belt - whether these future droughts are related to human activities can be debated forever. The good news is that elevated CO2 will give corn in the future a defense against any droughts that occur - corn will simply require much less water given the biological benefits associated with extra levels of CO2. The goodness will be felt the world over, not just in America’s corn belt.

References:

Chun, J.A., Q. Wang, D. Timlin, D. Fleisher, and V.R. Reddy. 2011. Effect of elevated carbon dioxide and water stress on gas exchange and water use efficiency in corn. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 151, 378-384.

Celebrate EPA’s withdrawal of job-killing ozone standards – but prepare for more onslaughts

Millions of Americans recently celebrated the demise of the Environmental Protection Agency’s job-killing ground-level ozone regulations. While a toast was appropriate, we shouldn’t drink too much champagne just yet.

As with the Battle of Midway and Lt. Col. James Doolittle’s Tokyo Raid in early 1942, White House action on this single EPA rule is merely a welcome victory in a long struggle. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce may have declared, “Now, at least they’re listening,” but other observers say the EPA and Obama administration are still tone deaf.”

Indeed, a major factor in the White House decision on ozone was a map showing that 85% of America’s counties would be out of compliance with the Clean Air Act if the new rules were implemented. That would mean no new construction or manufacturing projects could begin - and no jobs “created or saved” - until billions are spent to bring existing facilities into compliance with arbitrary new ozone standards.

Many of those counties are in politically important states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia - which better explains the administration’s sudden “conversion,” than does any supposed recognition that its rules are unnecessary and harmful. Moreover, the ozone rule was not killed; it was postponed until after the 2012 elections, to safeguard jobs: White House, administration, Democrat and SEIU jobs.

The administration’s mile-long regulatory freight train merely paused to shunt the ozone boxcar onto a siding, to be retrieved later. The engines and remaining cars are still roaring down the tracks, heading for a collision with a sick economy that has left 14 million Americans jobless, 9 million forced to take part-time work, 2.5 million who have given up looking for jobs, and 46 million on food stamps.

Orchestrated environmentalist outrage over the delayed ozone rule may deflect attention from the rest of the freight train, and make it easier to impose hundreds of other regulations. In fact, reams of complex Dodd-Frank financial rules and Obamacare health sector regulations are still onboard, as are National Labor Relations Board unionizing schemes, Agriculture and Interior Department land use regulations, and many others.

The Energy Department continues to lavish taxpayer dollars on expensive wind and solar projects that provide minimal energy at exorbitant cost, even after two more solar companies went bankrupt, costing Americans another $1 billion and 1,900 jobs.  Solyndra alone cost US taxpayers $535 million, to create 1,100 temporary jobs at $485,000 apiece. They’re all gone now.

Citing Energy Department reports, the Washington Post reports that the $39-billion loan guarantee program, which President Obama promised would “create or save” 65,000 jobs, has instead spawned a measly 3,545 new, supposedly permanent jobs - after blowing nearly $18 billion, or $5 million per job.

Green jobs? Greenback jobs is more like it - taxpayer greenbacks for Obama and cronies. Worse, by draining billions from taxpayers, consumers and productive sectors of the American economy, the administration is killing two to three traditional, sustainable jobs for each greenback job it creates.

Then there is EPA, which even in this toxic environment remains the biggest single job-killing agency in government. Its ozone rulemaking is just one of dozens it has planned, finalized, or brought to the brink of sign-off and implementation.

Unable to get cap-tax-and-trade passed in Congress, EPA has its economy-killing carbon dioxide rules waiting on a railway siding, until the November elections spur a regulatory frenzy. It is still preparing coal-fired power plant emission rules to control the 0.5% of mercury that actually enters America’s atmosphere from those facilities, as well as expensive regulations on heavy-duty trucks.

“Cross-state” air pollution regulations will force utilities in a few states to install billion-dollar retrofits on coal-fired power plants that EPA computer models say could (minimally) affect air quality hundreds of miles away. EPA claims 20 states affect downwind states during the May-September NOx/ozone season, but demands that Florida shoulder 79% of the national responsibility.

It claims seven states affect Houston’s air quality, but wants Florida to provide 94% of the alleged benefits for the Texas city, 800 miles away, across the sultry, largely windless summertime Gulf of Mexico - after Florida utilities already reduced their NOx emissions by two-thirds since 2003. EPA also says Texas must retrofit power plants that might affect Illinois communities 400 miles away.

Even crazier, EPA is using outdated air pollution measurements to justify these rules. In reality, data from recent years show the supposedly impacted cities already meet national ambient air quality standards.

EPA’s “maximum achievable control technologies” (MACT) rules will impact power sources in factories and refineries. Its “reciprocating ignition compression engine” (RICE) rules will curtail the availability of thousands of backup, “peaking” and emergency generators at colleges, hospitals, malls, groceries and other facilities. When storms knock out power, or heat waves strain overloaded grids, the dearth of electricity will cause brownouts, blackouts and widespread chaos, especially in hospitals.

Coal ash and water quality rules will raise costs even further for nearly half of America’s power plants - and electricity users - for minimal environmental gain.

For three years EPA has used global warming claims to oppose the Keystone XL pipeline project, which could create hundreds of thousands of American refinery, construction, manufacturing, financial and other jobs - and stymie Shell’s oil drilling plans in Alaska’s Chukchi Sea.

In every instance, EPA claims “the regulatory benefits far exceed the costs.” However, as independent natural scientist Dr. Willie Soon and other analysts have documented, the health, welfare and environmental risks and benefits have frequently been exaggerated or even fabricated.

Worse, EPA steadfastly refuses to consider the significant adverse effects that its rules will have on human health and welfare. The cumulative weight of these rules will send energy costs skyrocketing and kill millions of additional jobs, Affordable Power Alliance co-chair Niger Innis points out.

Poor and newly jobless families will be even less able to afford gasoline, clothing, healthcare, proper nutrition and other basic needs, Innis notes. Many will suffer increased stress, drug and alcohol abuse, domestic violence and crime rates. Many low income families will be unable to afford proper heating during frigid winter months or air conditioning during summer heat waves. People will die.

Equally outrageous, while it may have shunted its ozone boxcar onto a railway siding, EPA is ramping up its campaign to rally support for its dangerous policies. Under its “Plan EJ 2014” initiative and other programs, the agency is “leading from behind” - funneling millions of taxpayer dollars to minority, low-income and environmentalist groups that will advance EPA’s rulemaking, permitting, compliance, enforcement and other agenda items under guise of “environmental justice” and “civil rights” claims.

The Environmental Protection Agency is setting the stage for a national disaster.

EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson insists she wants “a real conversation about protecting our health and the environment.” By all means, let’s have that conversation. It’s likely, however, that she and her radical allies will not enjoy it one small bit.
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Paul Driessen is senior policy advisor for the Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow, and author of Eco-Imperialism: Green power - Black death.