Global warming could rob the U.S. economy of $1.4 billion a year in lost corn production alone, a national environmental group estimated in a report released Thursday. The Environment America study, based on government and university data, projects that warming temperatures will reduce yields of the nation’s biggest crop by 3% in the Midwest and the South compared with projected yields without further global warming.Iowa would be hit hardest, losing $259 million a year in corn revenues, followed by Illinois at $243 million. California, which leads the country in agriculture but doesn’t grow much corn, would take an estimated $4.7-million hit.

The study doesn’t directly address other crops, but one of its main sources, a 2008 government report on the effects of warming on agriculture and natural resources, suggests that California’s signature fruit and vegetable harvests could suffer even more than corn if temperatures rise. “Corn likes it cool, but global warming is raising temperatures across the nation,” said report author Timothy Telleen-Lawton in a news release. “Hotter fields will mean lower yields for corn, and eventually, the rest of agriculture.”

Telleen-Lawton said the estimates of revenue loss were tied to expected increases in temperature and carbon dioxide levels that could be reached within the next few decades if steps were not taken quickly to cut the amount of greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere. The report is a direct challenge to other studies, often cited by critics of government efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions, that project moderate warming would increase crop yields.

Higher carbon dioxide levels would help plants grow, Princeton University physicist William Happer, a critic of emissions limits, told a Senate committee this year. “Crop yields will continue to increase as CO2 levels go up,” he said in submitted testimony, “since we are far from the optimum levels for plant growth.” Icecap Note: this is supported by NASA satellite monitoring which shows a ”greening of middle latitudes”, an increase in yields of 30% and 10% more acreage in the last 50 years due in large part to higher CO2. More vigorous plants are also more drought resistant. This has enabled us to feed more of the world’s people.

The report by Environment America, an environmental advocacy group, contends that damaging effects from warming would far outweigh a carbon-fueled yield boost. “Not all the effects of global warming will be bad for agriculture; growing seasons will be longer, and increased carbon dioxide levels encourage plant growth,” the report says.

“But global warming will make some of the challenges that agriculture faces significantly worse, including increasing temperatures, more damaging storms, ozone pollution, and spreading pests, weeds, and diseases.” The report doesn’t attempt to quantify losses from storms, floods, insects and ozone pollution related to global warming. It calculates damages based on warming temperatures, which could rise above corn’s optimum growing range of 64 to 72 degrees Fahrenheit during the growing season. It also says farmers can help fight global warming—and the government can encourage their efforts—in part by turning some of their land into wind and solar energy farms.

But the report stays silent on the fate of perhaps the most touted—and politically controversial—intersection of U.S. agriculture and global warming: corn ethanol, which proponents call a path away from fossil fuels but which critics say could cause as much global warming harm as good. See story here.

Icecap Note: Iowa was mentioned as being vulnerable to more heat. Actual Des Moines, Iowa data says otherwise. Out of the 61 record highs for June and July, 33 occurred in the 1930s, 5 in 1988 and NONE since.

Most of the warming globally has been in urban areas, in winter and at night. None of these apply to farmland. Also temperatures globally have been on the decline in the last 7 years. Agricultural areas tend to have elevated nighttime readings and lower daytime temperatures due to enhanced moisture due to evapotranspiration (see Christy study here).

In the April 3rd edition of Science a collaborative group of scientists from Switzerland, California and the UK report that medieval climate over Europe was heated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This oscillation pattern, defined as the pressure difference between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, also influences modern-day weather conditions and has contributed to the recent droughts in North Africa and floods in North-Central Europe.

A comparison of tree rings from 1000-year old trees in Morocco and growth layers in a stalagmite from a cave in Scotland now reveal the mechanism behind the “Medieval climate anomaly” - a period of global warmth between 1000 and 1400 AD. During this period, the pressure difference between the Azores High and the Icelandic Low was large and, by driving warm Atlantic winds over the cold European continent in winter time, was heating the European mainland (bottom left in diagram).

Trees and stalagmites are “proxy archives”, meaning that they are natural data sources from which past climatic conditions can be derived. Old cedar trees from the Atlas Mountains in Morocco grew extremely slowly during Medieval Times and thus reflect much drier conditions during this period compared to following centuries. These dry conditions, in turn, are an indicator for a strong Azores High. Opposite to the African tree rings, the Scottish stalagmite shows that during the same period it was much wetter than normal in northern Europe, reflecting a strong Icelandic Low.

Scientists from the Dendro Sciences Unit at the Swiss Federal Research Institute have teamed up with experts from the USA and the UK, including Royal Society-Leverhulme Trust Senior Research Fellow Professor James Scourse of the School of Ocean Sciences at Bangor University, to compile and to develop the first NAO reconstruction to extend back to the Middle Ages. By comparing these proxy archives to modelled climate simulations they were able to analyse temperature, precipitation, and wind conditions across Europe over the last millennium and to test the reliability of their results. Comparisons with other terrestrial and marine proxy archives from across the globe suggest that the changes seen in the NAO are part of a global reorganization of the ocean-atmosphere system.

Valerie Trouet, first author of this study, points out that “the modern-day effects of the NAO are relatively small and short-lived compared to those during the Middle Ages”. This study demonstrates that climate has undergone large changes long before humans started releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, indicating that natural forcings should be taken into account when trying to understand the climate of the future. See Climate Audit’s issues with the study and the conclusions of Mann etal that it confirms the Medieval Warm Period as a regional phenomenon focused on Europe. CO2 Science has shown the MWP to be truely global in nature supported by data published by 690 individual scientists from 404 separate research institutions in 40 different countries here.

The three-person team of British explorers on the Arctic ice cap may or may not be in danger, depending upon which of the team’s representatives back at headquarters in London is doing the talking. Martin Hartley, Pen Hadow, and Ann Daniels have been on a “scientific” mission to measure sea ice thickness that is routinely measured by satellite and buoys. Unfortunately, just about all of their equipment failed as soon as the team got onto the ice, due to what the BBC has reported as unexpected wind chill values as low as minus 70 degrees Celsius.

On the health front, according to Catlin Arctic Survey medical adviser Doctor Martin Rhodes, the team are battling chronic hypothermia. Additionally, Martin Hartley has frostbite on one foot, photographs of which are on the mission website, with a disclaimer for the faint of heart. On the other hand, according to Catlin communications director Rod Macrae, all is well. “They’re fine,” he said, in a phone interview Thursday. “There is no hypothermia.” Macrae maintained that people with agendas that he didn’t even want to speculate about were looking to criticize the team, when, actually everything is going very well indeed. “Pen [the team leader] has said, “Were stuck in the tent, and we’re unable to take any measurements.” And people have rushed to all sorts of hasty conclusions about their situation being dire or something.”

Pen Hadow and Martin Hartley of the Catlin Arctic Survey battle the elements in the name of science, and their own survival

And yet, according to a blog entry on the Catlin website by support team member Gaby Dean, the team members do not sound normal when they phone in each day, their words slurred and muddled. Macrae was surprised to learn that the team’s “live” biotelemetry (heart rate, breaths per minute, core temperature, and skin temperature) had been repeating for upwards of a week (closer to a month, it turned out). Hadow’s core temperature reading of 33 degrees Celsius (91 degrees Fahrenheit), day after day, had given plenty of the people following the mission pause, if not a sense of foreboding. As for the slurred speech, Macrae explained that when the facial muscles get cold, they do not perform normally.

“All clothing can do is slow down the process of losing heat,” Doctor Rhodes said. “The only way they can keep the hypothermia at bay is to keep moving and to keep eating.” Although the team is equipped with the highest-tech cold-weather gear that money can buy, many have questioned the decision not to use traditional seal and animal fur gear, considered by some experts to be superior in the extreme environment.

As of the end of the day on Thursday, which was a rest day, the team had progressed 245 kilometers. Their goal is to take ice measurements all the way to the north pole, but with only 40 days left before they will be removed from the ice, their pace will have to quicken in order for them to attain their goal. They have 678 kilometers still to travel. The pilots who have brought the team two resupplies are the same ones who will pick them up at the end of the expedition, and they have stated that they are unwilling to risk their aircraft and personal safety on the increasingly questionable ice after May 25, according to Macrae.

“To be honest, reaching the pole is entirely secondary to capturing the scientific data,” Macrae said. When asked whether any sea ice data (live streaming data had been promised prior to the expedition) could be made available, Macrae explained that Catlin had decided to hold off on that for the time being. “We will be putting some data up onto the website, when we think it’s substantial enough to provide something of interest.”

He was pointed in denying that any discussion of removing the team from the ice had taken place. “No, never,” he said. “I think there has been a fairly serious misinterpretation of the situation.” When informed later in the day that the team’s own medical adviser had diagnosed them, albeit remotely, with chronic hypothermia, Macrae responded with an e-mail: “What has been said and is, as you I am sure aware pretty obvious, they are constantly battling hypothermia.” Read more here.

Read also What if the Catlin Arctic Ice Survey is for Naught on Watts Up With That.

An environmental news Web site that creators say will be “the most comprehensive information center for climate and energy news and information,” launched Wednesday. “ClimateDepot.com,” which is owned by the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), is intended to an information clearinghouse featuring investigative reports alongside policy briefs aimed at lawmakers, teachers, parents, and the general public, according to its managing editor, Marc Morano.

“The purpose is to provide the American people and, frankly, the international community with an alternative to the mainstream media and the environmental pablum they serve up to their viewers and readers every single day,” Morano told CNSNews.com

Morano said that the Web site wouldn’t be “just another home” for climate change skeptics - it would expose readers to the entire spectrum of climate change debate. The Web site will feature links to former Vice President Al Gore’s global warming blog, as well as to the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change—the world’s premier proponent of “anthropogenic” (man-made) global warming. “What we’re trying to do is offer people a counter (weight),” he said.

The site will also offer research and environmental news that questions the theory of man-made “global warming.” “Parents with kids - who are being fed daily propaganda about the environment and global warming - college kids, teachers, lawmakers, the general public, anyone interested in this issue, they’re going to have an opportunity to read the latest climate and environmental news,” Morano added.

In addition to the latest in environmental news and information, Morano said the site will also serve as an unofficial ombudsman for environmental fact-checking - and will rank reporters based on the accuracy and balance of their environmental stories. Another feature of the site will be informational guides for parents, lawmakers, experts and reporters that concisely explain the complex scientific and environmental issues surrounding the global warming controversy including funding reports that show which advocacy and lobbying groups are bankrolling which public figures.

Morano said he also plans to track what Hollywood celebrities say about environmental issues. Morano, who previously edited the “Senate EPW Press Blog” for Sen. James Inhofe (R-Okla.), the ranking Republican on the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, is a former investigative journalist who previously worked at CNSNews.com.

The Sierra Club, a liberal environmental group, accused Morano of waging a “disinformation” campaign through his new Web site. “I woudn’t call anything Marc Morano puts out information.” Club spokesman Josh Dorner told CNSNews.com.  “I would call it disinformation. Marc Morano and his cohorts are in the business of spreading lies, mistruths, half-truths, and really are the last hold-outs in a debate that has, frankly, moved on from the position that they’re in,” Dorner said.

But the activist is unfazed by the criticism. Environmentalist voices like the Sierra Club’s will be included on the CFACT site, Morano said, in an effort to give the public access to all sides of the climate debate.

“They’re going to see both sides,” he pledged. “They’re going to get to see what Al Gore is saying. They’re going to get to see what the environmentalists are saying. They’re going to get to see what skeptical scientists are saying. They’re going to get to see the latest peer-reviewed studies. It’s a clearinghouse for the latest information.”

The url for the new site is here.

Is misreporting really necessary to get the global warming message across to the masses? Or is the claimed fate of the Wilkins Ice Shelf simply a case of too good a photo opportunity to pass up, or in this case, pass off, as caused by anthropogenic climate change?

The news stories are making it sound like the snapping of the last ice bridge between one part of the crumbling shelf and its main body is a portent of doom for a warming planet. Only a small part of the Wilkins Ice Shelf is affected by this event. It is also located in the Antarctic Peninsula, which is milder and subject to higher snowfall than the main mass of the continent. The mass of ice involved is dwarfed by many larger ice shelf breakouts studied in great detail over the last 60 years in Antarctica.

It is embarrassing to see scientists and newspapers prostitute themselves in this manner. Are they that desperate to seek inclusion in the politically correct but unscientifically sound association of anything and everything with the truly serious matter of climate change?

Ice shelves are dynamic. Just as dynamic as they have been for millions of years, during glacials and interglacials. For eons before our species industrialised and inadvertently set in train the massive liberation of fossilized carbon that has changed the composition and dynamics of the atmosphere, the oceans and the land, the ice shelves were doing precisely what the Wilkins is doing today, accumulating and shedding ice.

The same mechanics drive the growth and decay of ice shelves in a range of polar and sub polar environments, some of them verging on temperate maritime climates like that experienced by the Antarctic Peninsula and others in truly brutally cold regimes like those found closer to the poles. Ice shelves are extrusions of dense ice formed where glacial flows overrun a coastline. When the outflow exceeds the rate at which the glacier can directly fragment into icebergs the glacial mass remains coherent and the surplus pushes outwards into the seas or oceans.

The natural cycle of an ice shelf is to thicken, broaden and fan outwards, until the stresses of thermal erosion by the sea below, the atmosphere above, the subtle but persistent buckling moment of tidal rising and falling, all combine to fracture and break it into thousands of ice bergs, with the largest known to persist for five or more years while drifting for thousands of kilometres.

Somewhere in the southern ocean, the bodies of Robert Falcon Scott and his men rest on such a fragment of the Ross Ice Shelf, awaiting the sea burial which was always their lot after dying there in March 1912 on their return from the South Pole, when their last camp was well away from its outermost edge. There is no doubting the reality of global warming, nor the ways in which it may affect the rate at which ice shelves form and discharge by increasing or decreasing the accumulation of snow that feeds the vast glacial deltas that flow out into the ice shelves. But the Wilkins break up displays the same spectacular process of ice shelf growth and disintegration that has been observed throughout polar exploration.

Plus a new effect, let’s call it the linear oversimplification of the global warming message regardless of the actual science. The sharp fault lines in the Wilkins break up are break points, not melt points. They would have fractured that way regardless of whether the Wilkins environment has warmed (or even cooled) by the few degrees that have been claimed for it.  There is nothing new either about massive outbreaks of icebergs from ice shelf collapses. In November and early December 2006, for only the second time in 75 years, icebergs were visible on the ocean horizon from high hills near Dunedin, New Zealand. The early voyages to Australia reported icebergs in similar latitudes to Tasmania and as far north as close to the Cape of Good Hope, while in 1868, one ship reported a sighting off Cape Leeuwin in Western Australia. In 1894 an iceberg was sighted in the western southern Atlantic in Brazilian latitudes.

The real science of climate change is very complex but also convincing. Could it be that the seriousness of these issues is being undermined by an unscientific determination in some quarters to convert almost anything that happens in the natural world into an unnatural opportunity to preach a doctrine rather than a science to the general population? Tragically for the planet, the Wilkins media event serves to deflect attention from the Rudd Government’s determination to do nothing to diminish the mining of coal which results in the liberation of copious quantities of fossilized carbon which constitutes the overwhelmingly largest cause of the greenhouse gas effect in the lower atmosphere. The circus of photo opportunity, glib sanctimonious platitudes and compliant media reporting rolls on.