Frozen in Time
Nov 09, 2009
The Real Climate Engine

By Erl Happ

What follows is a general theory of natural climate variation supported by observation of the changing temperature of the atmosphere and the sea between 1948 and September 2009. This work suggests that strong warming after 1978 is an entirely natural phenomenon.

“Mad dogs and Englishmen go out in the midday sun. The sun is much too sultry and one must avoid its ultry violet rays”. Noel Coward 1932.

Perhaps Noel Coward’s observation is particularly pertinent in the southern hemisphere where there is less ozone to absorb UVB. During the warming mode, protective ice crystals evaporate, allowing the surface to warm. Most of the warming activity post 1978 has been in the southern hemisphere in late winter and spring. This warming activity is plainly driven by shifts in atmospheric pressure affecting vortex activity. There are two climate modes:

The Warming Mode:

There is a shift of the atmosphere from the poles towards mid and low latitudes under electromagnetic forcing of ionized air.

Weakening of the polar vortexes curtails the flow of ionized nitrogen into the upper stratosphere allowing the survival of oxygen ions and increased ozone formation.

Intermixing of ozone into the upper troposphere raises temperature in the ice cloud zone. Ice crystals evaporate.

More solar radiation reaches the surface which warms.

In the southern hemisphere 200hpa temperature rises much more than in the northern hemisphere exhibiting strong equinoctial maxima.

Peak anomalies in stratospheric temperature occur in September-October rather than March.

A southern spring deficit in ice cloud density promotes warming across all southern latitudes which promotes the El Nino pattern of sea surface temperature at the equator.

The Cooling Mode

Surface atmospheric pressure increases at the poles as the electromagnetic force in the ionosphere/thermosphere relaxes.  This happens at solar minimum as the quantum of ionizing radiation falls to its lowest levels. It also tends to happen at solar maximum as the suns magnetic polarity reverses and magnetic fields emanating from the sun tend to be self cancelling. The manifestation in the Pacific Ocean is La Nina cooling.

Strengthening of the polar vortexes introduces ionized nitrogen into the stratosphere reducing the population of oxygen ions and ozone. A loss of ozone in the ice cloud zone reduces temperature enhancing the formation of reflective ice crystals.

Less solar radiation reaches the surface which cools.

A generally low ozone level in the stratosphere results in high amplitude change in stratospheric temperature during the ENSO cycle. This is expressed in high amplitude variation in 20hpa temperature at the equator. At the surface the swing from El Nino warming to La Nina cooling is more violent and extreme.

Change is more extreme in the southern hemisphere where the polar vortex is generally cooler especially at the highest altitudes. In the cool mode stratospheric temperature exhibits a March maximum probably in line with enhancement of orbital rather than geomagnetic influences on stratospheric temperature. The earth is closest to the sun in January.

A cooler stratosphere and upper troposphere in southern spring promotes ice cloud formation reducing the flux of solar radiation to the surface establishing a La Nina dominant regime in the Pacific Ocean.

The pattern of change from the cool to the warm mode and back again is well expressed in figure 22 showing the pattern of change of the (Darwin-Tahiti) Southern Oscillation Index when compartmentalized according to solar cycle time intervals. A fall in this index represents warming. A dramatic fall in the index occurred about 1978. With the end of solar cycle 23 the globe is emerging from the strongest period of warming in the period of the instrumental record. The Southern Oscillation Index, based on barometric pressure, is not affected by the distortions present in the temperature record.

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The smoking gun for natural climate variation is an increase in the temperature of the southern stratosphere and troposphere increasing with latitude all the way to the southern pole with a marked variation in southern hemisphere temperature in winter/spring between cool and warm episodes. This determines the strength of El Nino warming events across the tropics.

The smoking gun for greenhouse effects should be a generalized warming at all latitudes without any marked seasonal bias. If there were to be a seasonal bias it should be present as an increase in temperature above the norm when outgoing long wave radiation is maximal in the summer season. There should be no great difference between the hemispheres. That is far from what is actually observed. The evidence suggests that natural variation rather than anthropogenic influences drives climate change.

Conclusion:

Between 1948 and 1976 the tropics and the globe as a whole was fairly stable in temperature with obvious cooling discernable in the decade prior to 1976. From 1977 through to 2000 the tropics and the globe warmed. By comparing data from the earlier period with that for the later period one can discern change in the atmosphere that resulted in more solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth causing it to warm.

Atmospheric conditions in the near earth environment are strongly influenced by the sun. The observed warming of the last decades of the twentieth century can be attributed to natural influences. There is no evidence of any warming signature due to the increased presence of so called ‘greenhouses gases’. It is suggested that the greenhouse hypothesis takes little cognizance of the manner in which the atmosphere actually functions. The atmosphere cools the planet but a change in its temperature causes a change in ice crystal density and the quantum of radiation reaching the surface.

Climatic models suggest that any greenhouse effect should be strongest in the tropical upper troposphere where water vapor is in higher concentration. In point of fact warming of the upper troposphere at the equator is less likely as the globe warms because the quantum of outgoing radiation diminishes as convection and de-compressive cooling is enhanced. It is in the subtropics that outgoing long wave radiation increases and in particular in the high pressure cells where the air is descending and warming and the sky tends to be cloud-free both in terms of liquid and ice crystal density.  A water vapor feedback mechanism would require an increase in specific humidity levels in these high pressure areas. The reverse is observed. If a greenhouse effect were present it would be unamplified and tiny. Any warming tendency in these areas is more likely to be due to a loss of ice cloud density than a greenhouse effect.

If the Earth enters a period of cooling, as it has since 1998, it suggests that the natural factor is pre-eminent. If there is a strong relationship between ice cloud density and surface temperature it confirms the point that moisture in the upper troposphere cools rather than warms the planet and the basis of the greenhouse feedback mechanism is negated. Without a water vapor amplifier a change in so called ‘greenhouse gas’ levels can have little or no effect upon surface temperature.

If we can rid ourselves of the foolish mantra that surface temperature is governed by so called greenhouse gas, much unnecessary pain can be avoided. We are threatened by zealous governments keen to interfere in markets, raise taxation and redistribute incomes. The absurd notion that carbon is a pollutant is daily promoted. ‘Will of the wisp’ schemes to generate renewable energy burden the public purse. Nothing is to be gained by these stratagems. Innovation has its own rewards and investment in all forms of innovation is already well enough subsidized and feverishly exploited. Man needs no urging to innovate and will do so quite happily in the absence of artificially inflated monetary incentives. The introduction of market distorting incentives and disincentives destroys rather than creates wealth. This is the tool of the central planner, the social activist, the miscreant.

Distraction and absurdity are our unhappy lot, parading as morality and virtue. Snake oil salesmen multiply by the minute. These are unfortunate times. There are none so blind as those who will not see. The authority of ‘Science’ and the United Nations organization has been subverted to the activists cause. This is a sorry time for mankind. It is a time when belief is substituted for science and the two are irretrievably tangled and confused.  Read this amazing full analysis here.

Nov 07, 2009
October 2009 3rd Coldest and Top Wettest for US in 115 Years, What about the Upcoming Winter?

By Joseph D’Aleo

NCDC has compiled the October temperatures and it ended up the 3rd coldest in 115 years and the all-time wettest as well (see their analysis here). As we have shown it was cold over almost all the lower 48. Indeed only Florida came in above normal. Wet conditions were also widespread.

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October with a mean of 50.8F was behind only 1976 with 50.7F and 1925 with 49.4F.

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Also the University of Alabama global temperature is out and it is down this month. Hadley came in late for September but it was down. The trends since 2002 continue down for both even as CO2 rise.

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The cold came just a few months after a cold July where 6 states were coldest in 115 years, four 2nd coldest and two 3rd coldest. See in this analysis on World Climate Report, how the first 10 months of the year followed a similar drop as 2008.

US was not alone. In the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand had the coldest October in 64 years. Hat tip: Rod Van Koughnet, geophysicist and skeptic.

Temperatures may pop globally with the second surge in El Nino the next two months. A warm pool (depression of the thermocline) induced by a westerly wind burst last month with a negative Southern Oscillation Index has been pressing east. A prior surge had produced a first peak in El Nino in July. It weakened after with a cooling of the water in the eastern Pacific as the first warm surge was mixed out and cold water upwelling increased off South America. The same thing will happen after the El Nino comes to a second larger peak in early December. Typically in cold PDO phases, El Ninos, are truncated - that is they end early and tend to be weaker (up to moderate strength). See the similarity to other years in this post here. 

When you look at other years in cold PDO with a quiet sun and transition to an easterly QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) you get a cold winter especially in the east.

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Enlarged here

A stratospheric warming is more likely in these conditions, favoring high latitude blocking and cold air intrusions. We have seen much more blocking this year in part due to El Nino, in part to low solar and in part to high latitude volcanoes (Redoubt and Sarychev). See how a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) correlate with winter temperatures.

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Enlarged here

Big east coast storms for DC, New York or Boston are very likely in westerly QBO winters but not easterly. Since we will be transitioning from west to east, one might think we may still manage a few decent coastal storms and maybe a blockbuster, if the cold comes early and the QBO is slow to flip. Often in easterly winters, the snow is actually heavier south (like Norfolk).

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A negative NAO though is favorable for east coast storms and snow. This graph is for Boston, New York and DC are similar.

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Enlarged here

See much more details here.

Nov 06, 2009
Gordon Brown’s assumptions on climate change

The Scientific Alliance Newsletter of November 6, 2009

On 19th October, Gordon Brown made a high-profile speech on climate change policy to the Major Economies Forum in London. As a lead-in to the Copenhagen conference in December, this was widely reported in terms such as ‘50 days to save the world’. Of course, the Prime Minister did not exactly say that, but headline writers did not have to get too carried away to derive this from the actual statement: ‘In every era there are one or two moments when nations come together and reach agreements that make history because they change the course of history, and Copenhagen must be such a time. There are now fewer than 50 days to set the course for the next few decades, so as we convene here we carry great responsibilities, and the world is watching.’

In the language of international summitry, this is still pretty eye-catching, so it is perhaps interesting to analyse some of the rest of the speech, which makes the case for how vital it is to reach an agreement in Copenhagen.

‘If we do not reach a deal over the next few months, let us be in no doubt, since once the damage from unchecked emissions growth is done, no retrospective global agreement in some future period can undo that choice. By then it will be irretrievably too late, so we should never allow ourselves to lose sight of the catastrophe we face if present warming trends continue.’
This statement takes it as read that the assumptions on which the various climate models are built are unquestionably right. In reality, the key assumption in all of the models is that there is a positive feedback mechanism which enhances the actual relatively modest warming effect of additional atmospheric carbon dioxide. This is by no means proven, and there are equally plausible hypotheses which suggest that negative feedback mechanisms dominate. The reference to ‘present warming trend’ is also misleading. It is now generally accepted that there has been no warming for a decade. There is indeed a positive warming trend if the starting point is taken as the mid-70s, but this is far less evident if the baseline is the mid-30s. Trends depend on start and end points.

‘Only last week we saw new evidence of the rapid loss of Arctic Sea ice.’
Another misleading statement. Arctic sea ice varies to a very large extent from season to season. 2007 saw the largest summer loss in recent times, but 2008 was less extreme, and 2009 saw greater coverage again. Even the real drivers of these changes are not known, despite the glib assertions that the Arctic ice is sure evidence of human interference with the climate. Almost certainly ocean currents, wind patterns and sea temperature have a greater impact than air temperatures, and there is no clear evidence that any changes are driven primarily by carbon dioxide levels.

‘In just 25 years the glaciers in the Himalayas, which provide water for three-quarters of a billion people could disappear entirely. IPCC estimates tell us now that by 2080 an extra 1.8 billion people - equal to a quarter of the world’s current population - could be living and dying without enough water.’
Note the use of the conditional: ‘could’. This estimate comes from models using recent measurements for melt rate and precipitation together with assumptions for future emissions and consequent direct effects on surface temperatures and indirect effects on weather patterns. This is a worst case scenario, reliant on the all-important positive feedback assumption. There are already far too many people living with inadequate water supplies, because of low average rainfall, inadequate capture and storage facilities for intermittent rainfall or, as is the case in southern Africa, a pattern of periodic droughts. The possible contribution of climate change to this is unknown, but investment in water storage infrastructure could do a lot to alleviate this.

‘If the international community does nothing to assist the rainforest nations in protecting the world’s rainforests, the damage not just to climate but to biodiversity, to watersheds and to the livelihoods of millions of people will, as you know here, be incalculable.’
Deforestation can have a very significant effect on local or regional climate, as must certainly have been the case for prehistoric Europe as forests were cleared for farmland. In the case of tropical forests, there would also be a large negative impact on biodiversity. Current livelihoods would certainly be lost, but probably there would be many farming-related jobs created. Such wholesale changes would be regrettable, but the impact on global climate is still unclear: there is still debate about the carbon cycle and patterns of absorption and emission of carbon dioxide and methane from forests.

‘And the recent report of the Global Humanitarian Forum led by Kofi Annan suggests that 325 million people are already seriously affected by drought, disease, floods, loss of livestock, low agricultural yields and decline of fish stocks. A further 500 million are at extreme risk, and every year the effects of climate change are already killing 300,000 people, the numbers killed by Indian Ocean tsunami, and the toll could rise to 500,000 each year by 2030.’
This report has been widely criticised for the assumptions it makes and the conclusions drawn. In particular, the figure of 300,000 people killed by the effects of climate change has not been justified, and appears to have been an extreme estimate produced for political purposes. It is difficult to take anything else in the report seriously in view of its evident bias and subjectivity. 

‘On Saturday, the President of the Maldives, whose concerns I share, held a Cabinet Meeting underwater to highlight the calamity that may engulf his islands. In the South Pacific nation of Kiribati, President Tong has requested international aid to evacuate his people before their land quite literally disappears.’
There is no evidence that the rate of sea level rise in the Pacific or elsewhere has increased in recent years from the fairly steady level apparent over the last century. Low-lying small island nations such as the Maldives and Kiribati are made up of a series of coral atolls, which are continually being eroded by wind and waves while new coral is being added. They appear historically to have been at about the same elevation above sea level as the waters have slowly risen. In short, although there are undoubtedly problems associated with population density and water extraction on the Maldives and elsewhere, there is no reason to suppose that the environment is any more vulnerable than it was a few decades ago. Publicity stunts such as the underwater Cabinet meeting may grab headlines, but they do not change the facts.

‘The extraordinary summer heat-wave of 2003 in Europe resulted in 35,000 extra deaths. On current trends such an event could become quite routine in Britain in just a few decades’ time. And within the lifetime of our children and grandchildren the intense temperatures of 2003 could become the average temperatures experienced throughout much of Europe.’
Despite attempts to draw parallels between extreme weather events and future weather patterns, such projections, we should remember, are based on incomplete computer models which all make essentially the same assumptions about the enhanced greenhouse effect, and which clearly deal in an inadequate way with the natural drivers of climate which have been dominant for at least the last decade.

In contrast to what he sees as the unsustainable and insecure path of ‘business as usual’, the Prime Minister extols the virtues of a decarbonised energy system: ‘Now, the other path leads to a low-carbon, high-cooperation future; a future too of economic growth, but growth powered by new energy sources and by energy efficiency, and bringing with it huge economic opportunities for developed and developing countries alike: new jobs and businesses; new technologies; new export opportunities.’

To many, this Brave New World probably sounds little different to what would happen anyway without specific policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. As fossil fuel prices rise, the incentive to use alternative energy supplies grows. At the same time, innovation makes some new technologies increasingly competitive so that their widespread adoption becomes an obvious choice. Which will be the winners in a generation’s time we simply do not know, but winners there will most certainly be. 

In the meantime, if the arguments by political leaders for a binding post-Kyoto agreement in Copenhagen are based on such uncertain evidence as quoted by Gordon Brown, perhaps we would be better advised to take the business as usual path. Business as usual does not mean doing the same thing for ever, but innovating and progressing in the way that we and previous generations have done.

Nov 03, 2009
American Agri-Women honor Oregon Meteorologist, George Taylor

Ag Weekly On-line

Salem, OR, (AgPR) - American Agri-Women (AAW) will present their highest honor, the Veritas Award, to Oregon Meteorologist George Taylor, at their 34rd annual convention in Salem, Oregon, November 13. The Veritas Award is given to individuals who have been public witness to the “pursuit of truth” in accordance with the principles expressed in the AAW statement of philosophy. Of specific interest are personalities of importance to agriculture, or responsible media coverage of agricultural issues and events.

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George Taylor has been working in the field of meteorology and climatology for over 34 years. Taylor, who lives in Corvallis, Oregon, served for 19 years as Oregon’s climatologist and was elected president of the American Association of Climatologists in 1998. He now runs his own business, Applied Climate Service.

Through his research over the years Taylor has shown that global warming is a natural occurrence with minimal influence by man and that by looking back further than the past few decades, the data shows that warming and cooling periods are common. Taylor continually works to keep the public informed of the effects climate has on their lives by publishing over 200 reports, books and articles, and by writing a bi-weekly column in two local newspapers. He is also a popular speaker, standing up for what he knows to be the truth, even when it disagrees with the prevailing opinion. AAW president Marcie Williams notes that, “George Taylor’s credentials and his courage in speaking out makes him an outstanding Veritas Award winner and we are excited to be able to honor him in this way.”

Past Veritas recipients include Paul Harvey, Michael DeBakey, Julia Child, Dr. C. Everett Koop, and John Stossel, to name a few.

Come to the AAW convention to hear these informative and entertaining speakers. For information about the convention, or agenda and registration form, visit the American Agri-Women website.

ICECAP salutes the American Agri-Women and our colleague George Taylor, well deserving of this recognition for his hard work in service of his state and the science that unfortunately went unrecognized by the Governor, the university and media but greatly appreciated by true scientists and those in industry he served so well.

Nov 02, 2009
Team of Scientists’ Open Letter To U.S. Senators: ‘Claim of consensus is fake’

By Marc Morano, Climate Depot

The following letter was sent to all 100 U.S. Senator’s on October 29, 2009 by a team of scientists. The letter is reproduced in full below:

A GAGGLE IS NOT A CONSENSUS
You have recently received a letter from the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), purporting to convey a “consensus” of the scientific community that immediate and drastic action is needed to avert a climatic catastrophe.

We do not seek to make the scientific arguments here (we did that in an earlier letter, sent a couple of months ago), but simply to note that the claim of consensus is fake, designed to stampede you into actions that will cripple our economy, and which you will regret for many years. There is no consensus, and even if there were, consensus is not the test of scientific validity. Theories that disagree with the facts are wrong, consensus or no.

We know of no evidence that any of the “leaders” of the scientific community who signed the letter to you ever asked their memberships for their opinions, before claiming to represent them on this important matter. We also note that the American Physical Society (APS, and we are physicists) did not sign the letter, though the scientific issues at stake are fundamentally matters of applied physics. You can do physics without climatology, but you can’t do climatology without physics.

The APS is at this moment reviewing its stance on so-called global warming, having received a petition from its membership to do so. That petition was signed by 160 distinguished members and fellows of the Society, including one Nobelist and 12 members of the National Academies. Indeed a score of the signers are Members and Fellows of the AAAS, none of whom were consulted before the AAAS letter to you.

Professor Hal Lewis, University of California, Santa Barbara
Professor Fred Singer, University of Virginia
Professor Will Happer, Princeton University
Professor Larry Gould, University of Hartford
Dr. Roger Cohen, retired Manager, Strategic Planning, ExxonMobil
List of 160 signers of the APS petition available here

Climate Depot’s Related Links:

Scientists Write Open Letter to Congress: ‘You Are Being Deceived About Global Warming’—‘Earth has been cooling for ten years’ - July 1, 2009

Climate Revolt: World’s Largest Science Group ‘Startled’ By Outpouring of Scientists Rejecting Man-Made Climate Fears! Clamor for Editor to Be Removed! - July 29, 2009

American Physical Society to review its current climate statement after a group of 80 prominent physicists petitioned APS revise - May 1, 2009

American Physical Society editor conceded a “considerable presence” of scientific skeptics exists - 2008

Polish National Academy of Science ‘published a document skeptical of man-made global warming’ - April 2008

Climate Fears RIP...for 30 years!? - Global Warming could stop ‘for up to 30 years! Warming ‘On Hold?...’Could go into hiding for decades,’ peer-reviewed study finds - Discovery.com - March 2, 2009

March 2009 U. S. Senate Report: ‘More Than 700 International Scientists Dissenting Over Man-Made Global Warming Claims’

India Issued a report challenging global warming fears - 2008

Canvass of more than 51,000 Canadian scientists revealed 68% disagree that global warming science is “settled” - 2008

Japan Geoscience Union symposium 2008 survey ‘showed 90 per cent of the participants do not believe the IPCC report’

Skeptical scientists overwhelm Prestigious Geologist conference in Norway in 2008: ‘2/3 of presenters and question-askers were hostile to, even dismissive of, the UN IPCC’ & see full reports here & here

Scientist William Schlesinger admits in 2009 that only 20% of IPCC scientists deal with climate

See full post here.

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