World Climate Report

The U.K.’s Hadley Center has issued a forecast that 2008 will come in as one of the top 10 warmest years in its 150+ year record of global average temperature. While this forecast is about as risky as predicting that the next box of a dozen doughnuts you buy will contain twelve of the one-holed wonders, the press seems enthralled by it, as virtually all major news wires ran the story under with some variant of the headline “2008 to be among hottest years on record.”

The Hadley Center does not have the greatest track record for making accurate forecasts. Recall that in early January 2007, they issued a stateproclaiming that 2007 would likely be the warmest year on record for the globe. In fact, they went as far as to assign a probability (60%) to their forecast of a record year. And, of course, this prediction was also widely covered in the press (for example, see this BBC story).

When all the numbers are in (they aren’t yet), 2007 will likely come in as around the 6th or 7th warmest year in the Hadley Center global temperature record, probably about a tenth of a degree (which is a lot) behind the record holder (1998). In other words, their forecast was way off.

Apparently stinging from this forecast bust last year, they decided to make one this year that is much broader and virtually certain to be correct. In order for 2008 to fall outside the top 10, the average temperature would have to be about 0.15C or about 2 standard deviations cooler than this year not to fall within the top 10. Statistically speaking, the chance that one year will fall outside of 2 standard deviations from the mean is about 5%. And since we are further requiring it to fall two standard deviations below the mean, then the chance drops to 2.5 percent. Read more here.

By John Fogle

In the spirit of being a good neighbor, I’ve decided to offer a needed service for all of the believers in human-caused global warming. That’s right, step right up, folks, I’m going to be selling carbon credits to those who want to assuage their guilt about heating up the planet with their SUVs.

For those of you not familiar with carbon credits, people who don’t want to cut back on their use of fossil fuels just pay someone else to cut back, much the same way you might pay someone to eat healthy foods for you so you can eat anything you want.

My gimmick is that I’m offering $100 carbon credits for only $89 each. If you buy carbon credits from Al Gore, you’ll have to pay the full retail price. But if you send your money directly to me, you’ll receive an official certificate for $100 in carbon credits for every $89 you send. But wait, there’s more. If you are among the first 500 purchasers, we’ll include a fantastic vegetable chopper, a $19.99 value, absolutely free.

And you will be helping to save the planet. I’ve had my eye on a 12-foot jon boat with a used 10-horse Evinrude, which will no doubt pump out oodles of carbon dioxide. But instead, I’m going to use the proceeds of carbon credit sales to purchase a sailboat - in other words, an environmentally friendly boat that uses wind power. The latest issue of Yachts International includes an ad for a 66-foot Van De Stadt for a mere $2,295,000. That’s a lot of carbon credits, but I’m sure if all of you dig deep enough, we can pull this off. Read more here.

LiveNews Environment

A new study’s found a natural cause may account for much of the recent dramatic thawing of the Arctic region in addition to man-made global warming. New research published in the journal Nature indicates a natural and cyclical increase in the amount of energy in the atmosphere that moves from south to north around the Arctic Circle. But scientists say that energy transfer, which comes with storms that head north because of ocean currents isn’t acting alone. Another upcoming study concludes that the combination of that natural energy transfer increase and man-made global warming serves as a one-two punch that’s pushing the Arctic over the edge with melting sea ice, ice sheets and glaciers. Read more here.

German research Vessel POLARSTERN in the arctic ice

See this link for fact sheet with more recent papers on this issue. We also commented on it here on Icecap here. Finally see this story of the record fast ice refreeze during the fall. Here’s how NASA explains the record re-growth of ice over that 10-day period in October and November: Record sea ice growth rates after a record low may sound surprising at first, but it is not completely unexpected. The more ice that survives the summer melt, the less open water there is for new ice to grow. When summertime ice extent hits a record low, on the other hand, large areas of open water provide room for the ice to grow once temperatures cool off enough. While summer warming of the upper ocean surface can cause wintertime sea ice regrowth to lag initially, as the fall season progresses and sunlight weakens, the rate of energy loss from the ocean increases. That heat loss coupled with a large area of open water creates ideal conditions for sea ice to form rapidly over large areas. Note currently the arctic ice has returned to normal extent.

See full size image here.