by Jorg Friedrich - 29.08.2012

Instead of welcoming critical discussion of complex scientific questions, we dismiss climate change skeptics as buffoons.

It was hot in Germany last week, very hot. But were the temperatures really “record-breaking”? Even before the heat wave had reached its apex, newspapers began to pose the question: how high, exactly, must temperatures climb before we can speak of “record heat"=? To find an answer, we must know how high temperatures have climbed in the past - a task that can be surprisingly complicated.

Temperatures are recorded in specific locations, and international guidelines for the recording process are well established. To determine whether a new temperature record has been broken, one must measure the temperature in a given location over a long period of time under stable conditions. One example: in Munster, a city in the Northwest of Germany, the thermometer recorded a temperature of 37.2 degrees Celsius at the city zoo last week, higher than ever before. The problem: during the previous heat wave in the summer of 2003 - when many weather stations in Germany recorded record-breaking measurements – no recordings were taken at that location. The old weather station at the zoo had been closed several years before when a more modern station opened twenty kilometers away at the airport, and the new private weather station didn’t exist yet.

Were temperature records broken or not?

We don’t know. Some scientists believe that the temperature records of the zoo are comparable to records from the airport, but a clear consensus doesn’t exist. The actual temperature in a given location is dependent on many local factors, whose respective influences fluctuate with wind direction, time of day, season, cloud cover, et cetera. To put it simply: it’s impossible to move a thermometer from one location to another one, measure the same temperature at both locations, and conclude that they will always be equally hot or cold.

This simple example points towards a big problem for climate scientists: temperature recordings over time and the calculation of means and trends are highly theoretical constructs that must take into account factors such as changes in measurement technologies, in urban development, and in vegetation near weather stations. The calculation of regional and global mean temperatures adds further complications: despite internationally agreed standards, measures are taken differently in different areas of the globe, and some areas are more densely dotted with weather stations than others.

In the past, scientists often had to rely on tree ring analysis and ice samples from glaciers to determine temperature levels in past centuries. Today, we use electronics and satellite technology to record meteorological parameters.

This shift alone illustrates how much observations must be supplemented by theories to produce nice and orderly temperature records.

Those who remain skeptical of scientists’ warnings of radical climate change often base their doubts on these theoretical constructions. That’s good. Doubt is what separates knowledge from belief. As paradoxical as it may sound, “knowledge” is something that can be doubted.

It’s not unusual that climate change skeptics still exist. What is unusual is that we tend to dismiss their doubts even in light of evident complexities in the reconstruction of past temperatures (which are barely comprehensible to a layman audience) instead of embracing them as the stirrings of enlightened reason, of man as he throws off the shackles of self-inflicted nonage.

Should we really believe grand scientific claims about atmospheric temperature change over the past decade if we cannot even determine whether temperature records were broken in a German city last week? Isn’t it normal to harbor doubts? Why should we believe scientists just like we believed priests in past centuries - as if they had access to secret knowledge, inaccessible to mere mortal.

---------

By the way, see under What’s New and Cool where the heat was followed by cold and even August snow

Dr. Richard Keen

Pete, I’m forwarding this to some of my favorites, some of whom you’ve no doubt also notified. Great movie, weaving together insights from lots of folks we all know.
best
Rich
___________

From: Pete Garcia [theboywhocriedwarming@gmail.com]
Sent: Wednesday, August 29, 2012 9:50 AM
To: Richard Alan Keen
Subject: Virtual Movie Premiere Invite

Hello Dr. Keen,

It is Pete Garcia II the director / producer / editor of YOUR movie “The Boy Who Cried Warming” the one we interviewed you for at the DDP 2010 in Orlando. Jesse Jones (producer) and I wanted to reach out and inform you that the film was recently completed and virtually launched on our website, August 24th, 2012.

I would like to personally invite you to watch “The Boy Who Cried Warming” in full length at our website.

“Every Global Warming prediction, has proven to be science fiction. Uncover the truth as we expose the shepherds of Climate Change in this new controversial documentary. Introducing first time filmmakers Pete Garcia II (director), Jesse Jones (writer), Deyvis Martinez (dp), Will Rich (sound) in their debut feature length film. Independently funded, this indie documentary in not associated with any corporate sponsorship or funding whatsoever. No hidden agendas, just the COLD truth. Support our grassroots campaign through word of mouth.Help spread the word!”

Please let us know your thoughts on the film, we would love a review, and SPREAD THE WORD! Tell everyone.

Thank you for your time and interview,

Pete Garcia II
Director / Producer
“The Boy Who Cried Warming”