Political Climate
Jul 31, 2017
Mainland US and Florida Hurricane ‘drought’

Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

WeatherBELL Analytics, LLC

A weak tropical storm Emily came ashore in Florida this morning.

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It will cross into the Atlantic and maintain tropical storm intensity according to NHC.

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The chart above shows the intervals between major hurricane landfalls in Florida as of August 4, 2016. A year later, we will be now at an amazing 4302 days, twice the original record.

You can see cycles in Atlantic hurricane intensity.

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The hurricane activity in the Atlantic is tied to cycles of the Atlantic AMO warm and cold modes.

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See the frequency of major hurricanes and landfall in the warm and cold modes.

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Florida peninsula escaped a major landfall during the first 9 summers of the latest warm mode starting in 1995.

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Then came 2004 with three storms and in the panhandle Ivan and then Wilma in 2005.

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The four significant hurricanes hurt citrus like 1960s and 1989s devastating freezes.

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The current SSTA pattern in not like 2004 in the North Pacific though it was similarly Modoki-like in the tropics and somewhat similar in the Atlantic.

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See the difference.

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We will battle Saharan Dust a while longer. Usually Atlantic pressure changes diminish that by mid August. The season rises quickly to a peak around September 10.

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See the western Atlantic and Caribbean are primed with high ocean heat content, typical of the late summer.

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