By Bruno De Wolf as comment in the Reference Frame
I took the RSS data and executed a simple linear regression in Excel over the last 10 years, from December 1997 to November 2007 (with tools --> data analysis --> regression). Temperatures are indicated in difference between the current month and the long term average. For instance: a temperature of +0.2°C means that month was 0.2°C warmer than the long term average.
What do we see? The linear trend is going down with a rate of 0.05°C per decade. What’s more, the last 8 months are situated below the trendline, so the negative trend is likely not going away in the next couple of months. Read more here.
Icecap Note: This satellite data used is for the region from 70S to 82.5N, where most all of civilization resides. Kyoto was at the start of the ten year period and Bali the end. During this period the alarmists are telling us the warming is reaching catastrophic proportions, the populated world has actually cooled slightly and the cooling is accelerating.
By Seth Borenstein, AP
For the first time, more than 200 of the world’s leading climate scientists, losing their patience, urged government leaders to take radical action to slow global warming because “there is no time to lose.” A petition from at least 215 climate scientists calls for the world to cut in half greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. It is directed at a conference of diplomats meeting in Bali, Indonesia, to negotiate the next global warming treaty. The petition, obtained by The Associated Press, is to be announced at a press conference there Wednesday night.
The appeal from scientists follows a petition last week from more than 150 global business leaders also demanding the 50 percent cut in greenhouse gases. That is the estimate that scientists calculate would hold future global warming to a little more than a 3-degree Fahrenheit increase and is in line with what the European Union has adopted. In the past, many of these scientists have avoided calls for action, leaving that to environmental advocacy groups.
The unprecedented petition includes scientists from more than 25 countries and shows that “the climate science community is essentially fed up,” said signer Andrew Weaver of the University of Victoria in Canada. (Icecap note: one of the many modeler scientists who has benefited greatly from the global warming hype).
But Jerry Taylor, a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute said “scientists are in no position to intelligently guide public policy on climate change.” Scientists can lay out scenarios, but it is up to economists to weigh the costs and benefits and many of them say the costs of cutting emissions are higher than the benefits, he said. Read more here.
By Noel Sheppard, Newsbusters
Want more proof of just how biased the United Nations is? A group of reporters representing the conservative newspaper Environment & Climate News were refused press credentials to attend the U.N.’s climate change meeting in Bali this week. UN press office coordinator Carrie Assheuer said the newspaper’s representatives “do not meet the criteria for press accreditation.” Environment & Climate News has been in continual publication for 10 years; is sent to more than 75,000 elected officials, opinion leaders, and environmental professionals in the United States; and is one of five newspapers published the by 23-year-old Heartland Institute. I guess only reporters that buy into the global warming myth are considered accredited. Read more here.
Meanwhile even the AP takes note in this story how ironically “Climate Change Meeting Adds to Emissions”. Nobody denies this is an important event, but huge numbers of people are going, and their emissions are probably going to be greater than a small African country,” said Chris Goodall, author of the book “How to Live a Low-Carbon Life.”
Commentary by Alan Siddons
It’s so ironic. The “science” of global warming is only as strong as the evidence that supports it. Yet alarmists have shown themselves increasingly willing to discard that evidence in order to promote hysteria. Thus they knock the legs out from under their own advantage. It’s perverse.
All four previous interglacial periods were as warm or warmer than the present. Were these brief periods catastrophic?
If so, then were the far longer periods of bitter cold somehow beneficial? Maybe they were for some species, but not for human beings, as even a microcosm within the present cycle shows.
One can almost read the ups and downs as a tug of war between abundance and scarcity, with human civilization as the rope. We ought to be grateful for the summer we’re living in. As was written in the Maunder Minimum: “Gather ye rosebuds while ye may, Old Time is still a-flying: And this same flower that smiles to-day, Tomorrow will be dying...” Yet rather than praise the gods for our present good fortune, in our selfishness we disparage it, expecting better, and even teach children to fear it. Read more here.
By David Smith, UK Sunday Times Online
Green scientists have been accused of overstating the dangers of climate change by researchers who found that the number of people killed each year by weather-related disasters is falling. Their report suggests that a central plank in the global warming argument – that it will result in a big increase in deaths from weather-related disasters – is undermined by the facts. It shows deaths in such disasters peaked in the 1920s and have been declining ever since.
Average annual deaths from weather-related events in the period 1990-2006 – considered by scientists to be when global warming has been most intense – were down by 87% on the 1900-89 average. The mortality rate from catastrophes, measured in deaths per million people, dropped by 93%. The report by the Civil Society Coalition on Climate Change, a grouping of 41 mainly free-market bodies, comes on the eve of an international meeting on climate change in Bali. Read more here.
By Michael Oliveira, The Canadian Press
After years of warmer-than-normal winters that spurred constant talk of global warming, winter this year is expected to be the coldest in almost 15 years and should remind everyone of what real Canadian cold feels like, Environment Canada said Friday. With the exception of only small pockets of northern Canada and southwestern Ontario, this December through February is forecast to be one of the harshest winters in recent memory across the country, said senior climatologist David Phillips.
“It is somewhat remarkable that we’re seeing the same situation from coast to coast to almost coast - from Vancouver Island to Bonavista, Nfld., we’re showing the country as being colder than normal,” Phillips said. “The last time Canada had a significantly cold winter was back in 1994, more than a decade ago, and this may very well rival that one in terms of coldness.” Phillips said the forecast for cold weather is being triggered in part by La Nina, a period of lower than normal temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. See more here.
By Deroy Murdock in Human Events.com
When Nobel laureate Albert Gore, Jr. collects his Peace Prize in Oslo on December 10, he should tell the gathered Norwegians exactly what he meant when he remarked about global warming: “I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous it is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are,” Gore said in the May 9, 2006 Grist Magazine. “Over-representation?” Is that anything like misrepresentation? Gore’s approach infects the debate and even the methodology of so-called “global warming.” From the former vice-president to unseen academics, some who clamor for statist answers to this alleged climate crisis employ dodgy measurement techniques, while others embrace hype and fear-mongering to promote massive government intervention to combat an entirely questionable challenge. Worse yet, this applies to reputedly objective researchers, not just opinionated activists.
U.C. Santa Barbara emeritus professor Daniel Botkin recently lamented in the Wall Street Journal that some of his warming-oriented colleagues believe “the only way to get our society to change is to frighten people with the possibility of a catastrophe, and that therefore it is all right and even necessary for scientists to exaggerate…‘Wolves deceive their prey, don’t they?’ one said to me recently.”
Oslo’s applause notwithstanding, egregious errors, distortions, and lies have no place in what is supposedly unbiased scientific inquiry regarding one of Earth’s most controversial questions. Read more here.
Mr. Murdock, a New York-based commentator to HUMAN EVENTS, is a columnist with the Scripps Howard News Service and a media fellow with the Hoover Institution on War, Revolution and Peace at Stanford University.
By Steven Milloy, DemandDebate on Fox News
When the international global warming alarm-ocracy gathers for its annual convention on the balmy island of Bali next week, is there any chance that the delegates will look up at the big yellow ball in the sky and ask, “Could it be the Sun, stupid?” New research suggests that would be a great question for them to consider. A recent study from the Journal of Geophysical Research (November 2007) reports that the sun may have contributed 50 percent or more of the global warming thought to have occurred since 1900.
Researchers from Duke University and the U.S. Army Research Office report that climate appears to be insensitive to solar variation if you accept the global temperature trend for the past 1,000 years as represented by the so-called “hockey stick” graph — which claims to show essentially unchanging temperatures between from 1000 to 1900 and then a sharp uptick from 1900 to the present. But the hockey stick-graph has been relegated to the ash heap of global warming history. Even the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) no longer mentions the graph in its reports. The researchers instead used a temperature reconstruction developed by Stockholm University researcher Ander Moberg and others that shows more variation in pre-industrial temperatures. Using Moberg’s reconstruction, the researchers found that “the climate is very sensitive to solar changes and a significant fraction of the global warming that occurred during the last century should be solar induced.” The researchers conclude that the current large-scale computer models — which, by the way, don’t work as they don’t even accurately reproduce historical temperature trends — could be significantly improved by adding sun-climate coupling mechanisms. Unfortunately, the reconsideration of the climate models isn’t on the agenda at Bali.
If sunspot activity continues to be so markedly low, then we should prepare for the possibility of a significant global cooling trend that could reduce agricultural yields and bring on the sort of food shortages that occurred during the Little Ice Age. Read more about this and much more here.