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Wednesday, January 14, 2009
Response to Gavin Schmidt - Global Data Base Issues Are Real

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

Gavin Schmidt wrote a hit piece on Tuesday night’s the Lou Dobbs show that featured a discussion of global cooling. He objected that he was the sole voice on the side on global warming. He said the piece was not fair and balanced. To Gavin and the other alarmists, it appears, a piece that is fair and balanced can make no mention of any other opinion except that carbon dioxide is causing global warming and action is needed now and will deliver gain and no pain, something the one sided media coverage has gotten them used to over the years.

Yet there is considerable evidence that man is not responsible anything but local climate change through urbanization (the world’s population has grown from 1.5 to 6.5 billion people since 1900) and locally and regionally through land use changes like deforestation, forestation and irrigation. Consider for example United States temperatures cooled from the end of WWII in the 1940s to the late 1970s, warmed from 1979 to 1998 then leveled off and fell. That means 5 of the last 7 decades has seen cooling during the most rapid industrialization period, the post WWII boom. CO2 has increased the whole time. This does not give cause to believe CO2 is the primary climate driver as the alarmists want you to believe. We have shown you on this site many examples of how other factors like ENSO, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and cycles on the sun and volcanism are much better correlated with the observed temperatures than CO2 and are the real drivers.



In the Lou Dobbs’ segment, Ines Ferre, the reporter who did an excellent job talking to many scientists on both sides of the issue reported: “three independent research groups concluded that the average global temperature in 2008 was the ninth or tenth warmest since 1850, but also since the coldest since the turn of the 21st century.” Lou also noted that according to NOAA 7 of the 8 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001. Lou asked me if I quibbled with that data. I replied:

“Yes, I do. In fact, if you look at the satellite data, which is the most reliable data, the best coverage of the globe, 2008 was the 14th coldest in 30 years. That doesn’t jive with the tenth warmest in 159 years in the Hadley data set or 113 or 114 years in the NOAA data set. Those global data sets are contaminated by the fact that two-thirds of the globe’s stations dropped out in 1990. Most of them rural and they performed no urban adjustment. And, Lou, you know, and the people in your studio know that if they live in the suburbs of New York City, it’s a lot colder in rural areas than in the city. Now we have more urban effect in those numbers reflecting - that show up in that enhanced or exaggerated warming in the global data set.”

Gavin took umbrage at this slap at the data centers:

“D’Aleo is misdirecting through his teeth here. He knows that the satellite analyses have more variability over ENSO cycles than the surface records, he also knows that urban heat island effects are corrected for in the surface records, and he also knows that this doesn’t effect ocean temperatures, and that the station dropping out doesn’t affect the trends at all (you can do the same analysis with only stations that remained and it makes no difference). Pure disinformation.”

Really Gavin? Lets take a look. Ironically just this week we featured a story highlighting that exact issue and the discrepancy that exists between the satellite data and the surface based station statistics. But let’s start from the beginning.  See the full response here.

Posted on 01/14 at 12:02 AM
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