Frozen in Time
May 04, 2007
More Perspective on Recent Hurricane Activity

Eric Berger, Sciguy Science Blog

Chris Landsea of NOAA has presented at the Annual AMS and elsewhere recently papers on hurricanes and climate change, and whether the recent upsurge in activity is due to global warming or changes in the way we monitor hurricanes. Landsea’s argument, in contrast to the likes of Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Judith Curry and others, is that observers missed so many storms during the pre-satellite era that a re-analysis of past data might explain why hurricanes seem to have become more common and destructive in the last 30 years.

We missed so many past storms, in fact, that Landsea’s research suggests historical Atlantic storm totals should be inflated by 3.2 named storms a year between the period of 1900-1965, and 1 storm between 1966 and 2002, to match the modern era. He has now published this work in the American Geophysical Union’s peer-reviewed EOS Transactions. See full blog story here

Chris Landsea of NOAA has presented at the Annual AMS and elsewhere recently papers on hurricanes and climate change, and whether the recent upsurge in activity is due to global warming or changes in the way we monitor hurricanes. Landsea’s argument, in contrast to the likes of Kerry Emanuel, Greg Holland, Judith Curry and others, is that observers missed so many storms during the pre-satellite era that a re-analysis of past data might explain why hurricanes seem to have become more common and destructive in the last 30 years.

We missed so many past storms, in fact, that Landsea’s research suggests historical Atlantic storm totals should be inflated by 3.2 named storms a year between the period of 1900-1965, and 1 storm between 1966 and 2002, to match the modern era. He has now published this work in the American Geophysical Union’s peer-reviewed EOS Transactions. See full blog story here

May 03, 2007
NASA Expects Cycle 24 to Peak in 2011 or 12

CNN. com Science and Space

The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012. A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012. “We’re hoping to achieve a consensus sometime in the next six to 12 months,” said Douglas Biesecker, a space environment center scientist who is chairman of the forecast panel.  See story here

The forecasters said the current solar cycle will probably end next March, when Solar Cycle 24 will begin. That will mean Cycle 23 lasted 12 years, longer than the usual 11-year cycle and considerably longer than many recent cycles which lasted less than 10 years. Short cycles are usually stronger and associated with warmer temperatures on earth and longer cycles weaker and colder. The last long cycle was in the 1960s/1970s.  Many solar physicists including Hathaway at NASA believe that if not cyle 24, cycle 25 will be very quiet (in his words ”the weakest in centuries”). Image below has the Hathaway projection for the next two cycles.

image

For some other forecasts see this table or Lund’s Cycle 24 Summary here. Coming soon a paper on the importance of solar changes to climate change.

The peak of the next sunspot cycle is expected in late 2011 or mid-2012. A 12-member panel charged with forecasting the solar cycle said Wednesday half of the specialists predicted a moderately strong cycle of 140 sunspots expected to peak in October of 2011, while the rest called for a moderately weak cycle of 90 sunspots peaking in August of 2012. “We’re hoping to achieve a consensus sometime in the next six to 12 months,” said Douglas Biesecker, a space environment center scientist who is chairman of the forecast panel.  See story here

The forecasters said the current solar cycle will probably end next March, when Solar Cycle 24 will begin. That will mean Cycle 23 lasted 12 years, longer than the usual 11-year cycle and considerably longer than many recent cycles which lasted less than 10 years. Short cycles are usually stronger and associated with warmer temperatures on earth and longer cycles weaker and colder. The last long cycle was in the 1960s/1970s.  Many solar physicists including Hathaway at NASA believe that if not cyle 24, cycle 25 will be very quiet (in his words ”the weakest in centuries”). Image below has the Hathaway projection for the next two cycles.

image

For some other forecasts see this table or Lund’s Cycle 24 Summary here Coming soon a paper on the importance of solar changes to climate change.

May 02, 2007
Kilimanjaro’s Glaciers May Last Longer Than Predicted

Nick Wadhams, National Geographic News

The fabled snows of Tanzania’s Mount Kilimanjaro may not succumb to global climate change as quickly as scientists had feared. A joint Austrian-U.S. research team that took seven years of measurements from weather stations atop Africa’s tallest mountain says that its ice fields will be around for another 30 to 40 years, while the glaciers on its slopes could last even longer. Kilimanjaro’s icepacks have been retreating since the 1800s, but “the vanishing of those glaciers between 2015 and 2020 as reported some years ago is definitely unrealistic,” said study participant Thomas Moelg of the University of Innsbruck.

The research team found new evidence showing that lower precipitation—and not rising temperatures on the summit—is the main cause for the Kilimanjaro glaciers’ retreat.  See full story here

The fabled snows of Tanzania’s Mount Kilimanjaro may not succumb to global climate change as quickly as scientists had feared. A joint Austrian-U.S. research team that took seven years of measurements from weather stations atop Africa’s tallest mountain says that its ice fields will be around for another 30 to 40 years, while the glaciers on its slopes could last even longer. Kilimanjaro’s icepacks have been retreating since the 1800s, but “the vanishing of those glaciers between 2015 and 2020 as reported some years ago is definitely unrealistic,” said study participant Thomas Moelg of the University of Innsbruck.

The research team found new evidence showing that lower precipitation—and not rising temperatures on the summit—is the main cause for the Kilimanjaro glaciers’ retreat.  See full story here

Apr 22, 2007
Thick ice frustrates attempts to free sealers

Canadian Press

Coast guard officials are hoping within days to free 39 sealing vessels that remain trapped in stubborn ice of northeastern Newfoundland. Captain Brian Penney, a coast guard spokesman, says efforts are being frustrated by shifting winds and ice so thick that four icebreakers are having trouble dislodging the vessels. The heavy icebreaker Terry Fox has moved into the area off the Baie Verte peninsula, but is being hampered by the severe ice conditions.

Penney says these are the worst conditions he’s seen in the last 15 years and have caused one of the most intensive coast guard rescue operations. See full story here

Coast guard officials are hoping within days to free 39 sealing vessels that remain trapped in stubborn ice of northeastern Newfoundland. Captain Brian Penney, a coast guard spokesman, says efforts are being frustrated by shifting winds and ice so thick that four icebreakers are having trouble dislodging the vessels. The heavy icebreaker Terry Fox has moved into the area off the Baie Verte peninsula, but is being hampered by the severe ice conditions.

Penney says these are the worst conditions he’s seen in the last 15 years and have caused one of the most intensive coast guard rescue operations. See full story here

Apr 17, 2007
Methane Matters

World Climate Report

If you examine the staggering 1.7 million websites that are identified searching for “Methane and Global Warming,” you will discover that methane may be the very gas to push us past the tipping point sometime in the near future. To add to the scare, you will discover that methane is far more powerful as a greenhouse gas than CO2 – the same mass of methane would warm the earth 23 times more than the same mass of CO2.

Here is the latest twist to the methane story – methane is not increasing in atmospheric concentration! We have highlighted this fact many times before at World Climate Report, and a new article in Environmental Science and Technology reveals that global methane concentration is not behaving the way the IPCC and the global warming advocates would have us believe.  See full story here

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