Frozen in Time
Jan 24, 2015
Update on snow and exceptional cold coming

Joe D’Aleo, Weatherbell.com




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Indeed the models suggest a season’s worth of snow may fall in a 10 day period with near and then below zero temperatures between and following the storms.

Like in 2014, the middle of January saw a thaw after a frigid start. The last 10 days of the month turned frigid again. This year the thaw was a few days later and snow is forecast to mark the arrival of round two of the polar plunge. See the snow amounts forecast from the series of lows from the south and northwest. It will span the last 5 days of the month and start February.  Come to weatherbell.com and see the high resolution European, UKMET, GFS and GEM models as well as the close up mesomodels including our own.

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BTW, here is Amarillo, TX after 12 inches of snow with the southern system.

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See the final storm and arctic front below.

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And the map with temperature anomalies (degrees C). Cold in the northeast is as much as 45F BELOW NORMAL!

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Here is the forecast the last 5 days of the month and then the first 5 of February (anomalies here in degrees C).

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The Great Lakes ice spiked after a cold November but slowed in the warmth in later December before picking up in January. It has slows again the lat week, but the late month and February cold should ensure it is very close to 2014.

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Jan 23, 2015
2014: A Year of Futility in the Fight against Climate Alarmism

By Steve Goreham

Reposted with author permission.

Despite activist public efforts on climate during the last year, actual events question the theory of human-caused warming.

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CHICAGO, December 29, 2014 - The year 2014 was another year of futility in the fight against climate change. Climatists redoubled efforts to convince citizens that urgent action is needed to stop dangerous global warming. But the gap between public warnings and actual events produced an endless stream of climate irony.

January began with a frosty bang as an arctic air mass descended on the central United States, following a similar event in December. What was once called a cold snap is now ominously christened a “polar vortex.” Record-low daily temperatures were recorded from Minnesota to Boston, along with all-time seasonal snowfalls in many cities.

In a White House video released on January 8, John Holdren, chief science advisor to President Obama, made the paradoxical statement, “But a growing body of evidence suggests that the kind of extreme cold being experienced by much of the United States as we speak is a pattern that we can expect to see with increasing frequency as global warming continues.”

Also in January, passengers of the research ship Akademik Shokalskiy were rescued after the ship was locked in ice for 10 days near the antarctic coast. The expedition lead by professor Chris Turney had intended to study how weather patterns near Antarctica were changing due to man-made global warming.

On February 16, during a presentation in Indonesia, Secretary of State John Kerry stated that climate change was “perhaps the world’s most fearsome weapon of mass destruction.” Only two days later, protestors set fire to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, leading to the resignation of President Viktor Yanukovych. In March, Russia seized the Crimea. In July, Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine, and political unrest continues today. In the Middle East, slaughter of innocent civilians and beheading of western captives became a growing trend. Man-made climate casualties seem remarkably scarce in comparison.

In March, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations released Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, part of its Fifth Assessment Report. The report said that man-made climate change would reduce world agricultural output. Lead author Dr. Mark Howden stated, “There’s increasing evidence that climate change is also impacting on agriculture, particularly on some of the cereal crops such as wheat and maize. The negative impacts are greater and quicker than we previously thought.”

Meanwhile, farmers continued to ignore the warnings of the IPCC. According to the US Department of Agriculture, world agricultural production set all-time records for all three major cereal crops in 2014, with rice output up 1.1 percent, wheat up 11.2 percent, and corn up a whopping 14.0 percent over 2013.

The Obama administration continued its attack on coal-fired power plants, which provide about 40 percent of US electricity. In June, the EPA proposed new restrictions on carbon emissions that would make it vitually impossible to build a new coal-fired plant in the US. At the same time, more than 1,200 new coal-fired plants are planned across the world, with two-thirds to be built in India and China.

In his 2007 Noble Prize acceptance speech, former Vice President Al Gore warned that the arctic ice could be gone in “as little as seven years.” But arctic sea ice rebounded in 2014 and antarctic sea ice has been growing for decades. According to the University of Illinois, satellites measured global sea ice area at above the 30-year average at the end of 2014.

In September, the United Nations held a climate summit in New York City to urge the world to conserve energy and reduce emissions. Spokesman Leonardo DiCaprio stated, “This disaster has grown beyond the choices that individuals make.” Mr. DiCaprio neglected to mention his frequent flights on carbon-emitting private jets or his ownership of the world’s fifth largest yacht, purchased from a Middle East oil tycoon.

In October, climate skeptics reported the eighteenth straight year of flat global temperatures. Satellite data shows no temperature increase since 1997. The “pause” in global warming is now old enough to vote or to serve in the military.

Hurricanes and tornados are favored events for generating alarming climate headlines, but US weather events were few in 2014. US tornadic activity was below average and the lack of strong hurricanes continued. No Category 3 or stronger hurricane has made US landfall for more than eight years, the longest period since records began in 1900.

The last half of 2014 witnessed a steep drop in world petroleum prices from over $100 per barrel to under $60 per barrel. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, technologies perfected by US geologists and petroleum engineers over the last two decades, produced an explosion in US oil production and triggered the fall in world prices.

But the concurrent drop in US gasoline prices to two dollars per gallon is not welcomed by man-made global warming believers. Former Energy Secretary Stephen Chu said in 2008, “So we have to figure out how to boost the price of gasoline to the levels in Europe.” English journalist George Monbiot has lamented, “We were wrong about peak oil: there’s enough in the ground to deep-fry the planet.”

With all the climate fun in 2014, what will 2015 hold?

Steve Goreham is Executive Director of the Climate Science Coalition of America and author of the book The Mad, Mad, Mad World of Climatism:  Mankind and Climate Change Mania.

Read more at http://www.commdiginews.com/featured/2014-year-of-futility-in-the-fight-against-climate-change-32500/#fYbUUI6GPFS4EG45.99


Jan 22, 2015
CNN: 57% Of Americans Say Global Warming Is Not A Threat

By Michael Bastach

Is this the new climate consensus? More than half of Americans say global warming is not a threat to their way of life, according to a CNN poll. Furthermore, nearly half of Americans say global warming is caused by natural forces or isn’t a proven fact.

CNN’s poll reveals that a “majority of those polled, at 57 percent, say global warming will not pose a serious threat to their way of life,” and that only 43 percent “expect global warming to threaten them.”

“Meanwhile, only 50 percent of Americans believe global warming is caused by man-made emissions, while 23 percent say it’s caused by natural changes and 26 percent say it isn’t a proven fact,” CNN notes.

CNN’s poll comes as Democratic lawmakers and environmentalists are trying to stop Congress from passing a bill that would approve the Keystone XL oil pipeline, bringing oil sands from Canada to U.S. refineries on the Gulf Coast. Opponents of the pipeline argue it will only make global warming worse.

“Unless we get our act together, the planet that we’re going to be leaving to our kids and grandchildren will be significantly less habitable than the planet we have right now,” Vermont socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders told MSNBC on Wednesday.

But it’s an argument that doesn’t seem to be resonating with the American people, as 57 percent of them don’t see global warming as a threat to their lives.

Democrats also have another problem: Fifty-seven percent of Americans also support building the Keystone XL pipeline while only 28 percent oppose it.

Some Democrats have recognized this and have changed their arguments from climate-focused ones to ones about the economics of the pipeline. Pipeline opponents have argued that low oil prices no longer make the project necessary, and that the oil sands will be exported and not benefit U.S. industry.

New York Democratic Rep. Carolyn Maloney said the pipeline would “help Canadian companies export their oil and it happens to be the filthiest energy form.”

“The proposed Keystone XL pipeline would transport Canadian tar sands oil - the dirtiest fuel on the planet - through America’s heartland to be refined and then shipped abroad,” said Danielle Droitsch, the Canadian director at the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Most energy experts disagree with the idea that oil sands will be shipped thousands of miles to the U.S. Gulf Coast - the area with the country’s largest concentrations of refining capacity - just to be sent overseas.

“It seems a stretch to believe that a crude oil marketing group would use the Keystone XL pipeline to take about 800,000 bpd of heavy crude to the world’s largest concentration of heavy coking capacity, and then bypass all that so it could put it on a ship and take it somewhere else for an additional $4 to $5,” Michael Wojciechowski, an energy analyst at Wood Mackenzie, told Reuters.

Most of the claims are based on UHI from bad sited stations. It was tht 9th warmest years according to the satellites and momostly because of a weak El Nino while the far eastern north Paciic was in a warm intradecadal cycle.

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Oh BTW, the real motivation for alarmists is not a wory about people but another nefarious agenda.

Dec 27, 2014
After a brutal November, December was mild but January will rival January 2014!

Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Update:

The month to date:

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The typhoon Mekkhala is nearing the Philippines and about to recurve north. An old empirical rule is that a recurving typhoon leads to major trough amplification in the central and eastern United States about 10 days later.

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The models suggest January ends bitter cold with anomalies near 40F below normal (pink). This January will rivakl 2014 for US cold.

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It was a November to Remember for winter lovers. It was the 16th coldest in the record back to 1895 with 18 states in the east and south in the top ten coldest. California was the exception with continued warmth. It was more like December than November. Natural gas prices soared 50%.

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The lake effect machine was busy with oveer 6 feet of snow in places.

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There was a rare Thanksgiving snowstorm with 50% snow cover extent at the peak, higher than Christmas on an average year. For North America, the snow extent was the highest in the record.

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Then in December the cold gradually faded as westerly winds around a strengthening polar vortex in high latitudes ushered milder Pacific air into Canada and the United States. This helped bring rains and mountain snow to drought striken California but not much snow east and temperatures more like we might expect in November. With the mild temperature natural gas prices gave back all the gains from November.

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Here is the vortex in the high atmosphere (stratosphere) which usually means maritime air dominates instead of polar.

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In the most similar years to this one, this vortex broke down in late December and January and cold evolved. And indeed models suggest that happnes the next 10 days with an increased invasion of polar even Siberian air.

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The lower atmosphere adjusts accordingly with the vortex coming south.

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Look at the departures from normal of -36F in the east in this model. Please note the models are having great difficulty adjusting to the changes and are highly variable model to model and run to run.

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We have a high confidence this change will occur but lower confidence on the details and timing. Once the arctic patterns readjust to the changes and the pattern stabilize, we would expect cold and storminess to prevail for an extended period. We cover this daily on Weatherbell.com which also has the highest resolution modeliing available even at the hobbyiest level.

Dec 18, 2014
(Plant) Food for Thought

Allan MacRae

Letter from Allan MacRae

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David Socrates asks on December 16, 2014 at 7:57 am
“Will all the folks saying that ∆CO2 follows ∆T ([temperature]. explain why in the past 15/16/17 years, ∆T = zero and ∆CO2 is 30-34 ppm?”

Already answered in my posts on this page David:

“I suggest that at a practical level, atmospheric CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales.

In the modern data record, the rate of change dCO2/dt varies ~contemporaneously with temperature and CO2 lags temperature by about 9 months.

For verification, please see my 2008 paper.

CO2 also lags temperature by about 800 years in the ice core record on a longer time scale.

Therefore, CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales. CO2 does not drive temperature; temperature (among other factors) drives CO2.

It appears that CO2 lags T at all measured time scales. This still allows for other significant drivers of atmospheric CO2, such as fossil fuel combustion, land-use changes such as deforestation, ocean outgassing, etc.”

********

The details of this issue have been ably argued on wattsup and other sites between Ferdinand Engelbeen and Richard S Courtney - one can search under “mass balance argument”.

The issue is one of magnitudes - how can we fully explain the current rise in atmospheric CO2 - your “∆CO2 is 30-34 ppm” - when the ∆CO2 magnitudes observed in both the modern data record and the ice core record in response to ∆T are allegedly too small to solely account for this 30-34 ppm CO2 - some parties allege that other drivers of this ∆CO2 such as fossil fuel combustion must also exist (and they may be right or wrong).

Many pages have been written and it is an interesting argument, which is of great scientific importance. However, for policy discussions I suggest all we really need to know is that global temperature T is clearly insensitive to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and the IPCC alarmists’ fear of catastrophic humanmade global warming is without scientific merit, and is highly counterproductive, wasteful and foolish.

As we clearly stated in our 2002 APEGA paper:

“Climate science does not support the theory of catastrophic human-made global warming - the alleged warming crisis does not exist.” Baliunas, Patterson and MacRae

Furthermore, increased atmospheric CO2 from whatever cause is clearly beneficial to humanity and the environment. Earth’s atmosphere is clearly CO2 deficient and continues to decline over geological time. In fact, atmospheric CO2 at this time is too low, dangerously low for the longer term survival of carbon-based life on Earth.

More Ice Ages, which are inevitable unless geo-engineering can prevent them, will cause atmospheric CO2 concentrations on Earth to decline to the point where photosynthesis slows and ultimately ceases. This would devastate the descendants of most current life on Earth, which is carbon-based and to which, I suggest, we have a significant moral obligation.

Atmospheric and dissolved oceanic CO2 is the feedstock for all carbon-based life on Earth. More CO2 is better. Within reasonable limits, a lot more CO2 is a lot better.

As a devoted fan of carbon-based life on Earth, I feel it is my duty to advocate on our behalf. To be clear, I am not prejudiced against non-carbon-based life forms, but I really do not know any of them well enough to form an opinion. They could be very nice. grin

Best, Allan

Icecap comment. This season beat out 2004 and 2009 for US crop yields with a global glut of produce. Ideal weather conditions combined with higher CO2 has improved productivity. CO2 is plant food. Even in drought ridden California, CO2 helped to limit losses by enhancing growth and reducing water needs. The losses would have been much greater with lower CO2 levels.

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