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Wednesday, August 15, 2007
New Model Supports Our Theory the Oceans May Be the Real Key

By Joseph D’Aleo, Icecap

In an earlier blog and paper, George Taylor and I made a case for the multidecadal cycles in the ocean temperature patterns controlling tempeerature cycles over at least the United States, Greenland and the arctic.

Michael Asher in the Daily tech reports that a team of mathematicians have come forth with model that supports this theory. Led by Dr. Anastasios Tsonis, their model says the known cycles of the Earth’s oceans—the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, El Nino (Southern Oscillation) and the North Pacific Oscillation—all tend to try to synchronize with each other.  We had earlier reported on this paper in What’s New and Cool as covered by Science Daily but we fell it is worth reiterating.

The theory is based on a branch of mathematics known as Sychronized Chaos.  The math predicts the degree of coupling to increase over time, causing the solution to “bifurcate,” or split. Then, the synchronization vanishes.  The result is a climate shift.  Eventually the cycles begin to sync up again, causing a repeating pattern of warming and cooling, along with sudden changes in the frequency and strength of El Nino events.  They show how this has explained the major shifts that have occurred including 1913, 1942 and 1978, just as our analysis showed.

PDO+AMO vs US Annual Mean Temps (Icecap)

Posted on 08/15 at 03:34 PM
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