Frozen in Time
Jun 24, 2008
Purposeful Manipulation of Temperature Data or Poor Practice?

By April E. Coggins on Paloustics

Dr. Fred W. Decker, Professor of Meteorology at Oregon State University, signed the 2008 Oregon Petition dissenting from man-made climate fears. “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth,” the petition that Decker signed states.

Decker also challenged temperature data. “One day the Gazette-Times told of a minimum temperature about 15 degrees Fahrenheit, whereas the radio station at the Marys River bridge into Avery Park reported much colder, a ‘minus’ reading, which agreed with home thermometers of some readers. Inquiring about locations, I learned the ‘official’ minimum came from the shelter atop the steam-heated agricultural building on campus. Moreover, the professor moved the instruments to the greenhouses to the west in the summers when he worked there. What poor practice!” Decker wrote on June 22, 2008. “I appealed to the agricultural dean upon learning of the imminent retirement of the professor responsible. I suggested a site near the KOAC towers if possible. The compromise site at Hyslop got selected, and Wheeler Calhoun’s data got quoted daily in the Gazette-Times” Decker wrote.

In a summer meeting at Pullman, Wash., a German professor from the University of Washington in Seattle told of his study of the records from the central Washington courthouse lawn, which appeared to reveal a cooling trend over many years. En route to the meeting he examined the site. He concluded his report by telling how the instrument shelter stood unmoved with a lone tree south of it having grown taller and wider, casting a mid-day shadow ever larger as the years passed. We all laughed as he smiled at his discovery of the cause for apparent ‘climate change.’ “

It should also be noted that Dr. Decker was one of the 31,000 scientists who signed the Global Warming Petition Project, and one of the over 9000 signers who hold PhD’s. In my opinion, if America can stop the madness of the global warming hysteria before it’s too late, these will be the heroes that saved us. See this post and any comments here.

Jun 23, 2008
Solstice Sea Ice Update

By Joseph S. D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

The Antarctic set a new record (since records began in 1979) for sea ice extent at the end of last winter. It stayed well above the normal through the summer with icemelt 40% below the normal. As a new height of irony and hype, the media made a big deal about a fracture of a small part of the Wilkins ice sheet in late February (160 square miles of the 6 million square mile Antarctic ice sheet (0.0027% of the total). Media headlines blared: Bye-bye, Antarctica? and Massive ice shelf collapsing off Antarctica.

But as you can see from this Cryosphere chart below, the extent never dropped to less than 1 million square km ABOVE NORMAL during or after the brief event. Currently Antarctic ice extent is running nearly 1 million square kilometers higher than last year at this time. Peak comes at the end of the southern winter (September).

See larger graph here

In contrast, the arctic set a record for the least extent since 1979 last September. It recovered at a record pace in the fall and reached levels more like several years ago this past winter.

See larger graph here

Last year the upper level pattern in June was very anomalous with a strong ridge of high pressure and warm surface temperatures. The ice melt was rapid. that blocking high pressure led to anomalous warmth near Siberia and Bering Strait and near Greenland leading to rapid ice melt.  The surface wind flow helped drain ice from the arctic into the Atlantic at a much higher than normal rate. This year for the same 20 day period, there is a cold trough migrating around the Arctic Ocean with blocking confined to Greenland. The result is temperatures much closer to normal over much of the arctic and cold pools near the Bering Straits and Siberian coast. Models suggest the cold pool strengthens some in the arctic the next few weeks. It is a long time until September, but if the pattern persists, we will likely come up short of last year’s record.

The global sea ice which has been running above normal is now near normal.
See larger graph here

See side by side ice comparisons of the arctic in 2007 and 2008 and more of the patterns leading to the differences and some of the reasons the Arctic has been melting again like it did in the middle of the last century during the end of the last warm period here.

Jun 23, 2008
Hansen Goes Off the Deep End Again. Time for NASA or the Public to End his Reign

Put Oil Firm Chiefs on Trial, Says Leading Climate Change Scientist.
By Ed Pilkington, The Guardian

James Hansen, one of the world’s leading climate scientists, will today call for the chief executives of large fossil fuel companies to be put on trial for high crimes against humanity and nature, accusing them of actively spreading doubt about global warming in the same way that tobacco companies blurred the links between smoking and cancer. Hansen will use the symbolically charged 20th anniversary of his groundbreaking speech to the US Congress - in which he was among the first to sound the alarm over the reality of global warming - to argue that radical steps need to be taken immediately if the “perfect storm” of irreversible climate change is not to become inevitable.

Speaking before Congress again, he will accuse the chief executive officers of companies such as ExxonMobil and Peabody Energy of being fully aware of the disinformation about climate change they are spreading. In an interview with the Guardian he said: “When you are in that kind of position, as the CEO of one the primary players who have been putting out misinformation even via organisations that affect what gets into school textbooks, then I think that’s a crime.”

He is also considering personally targeting members of Congress who have a poor track record on climate change in the coming November elections. He will campaign to have several of them unseated. Hansen’s speech to Congress on June 23 1988 is seen as a seminal moment in bringing the threat of global warming to the public’s attention. At a time when most scientists were still hesitant to speak out, he said the evidence of the greenhouse gas effect was 99% certain, adding “it is time to stop waffling”. Read more if you have the stomach here.

Icecap Note: Read this excellent post by Anthony Watts entitled “If Global Warming was a Company Decision, How Would You Vote?” on Hansen and his latest ”cognitive dissonance” outburst. Instead of suing big oil, I think the American people ought to seriously consider going after Hansen and Gore who are as much responsible for the energy and food crises by turning a minor largely natural, cyclical change into an earth-threatening, man-made disaster by manipulating both science and data. Environmental groups and some politicians share the blame and if we can’t sue them, we can stop donating to their causes and/or kick the bums out of office. Maybe we can put Boxer’s picture on Unleaded, Gore on high test and Hansen on Deisel pumps to remind folks where the blame really lies. In this Washington Post story, Sen. James M. Inhofe (R-Okla.) said the bill’s failure was proof that Hansen’s message had not caught on. “Hansen, Gore, and the media have been trumpeting man-made climate doom since the 1980s. But Americans are not buying it,” Inhofe said. “It’s back to the drawing board for Hansen and company as the alleged ‘consensus’ over man-made climate fears continues to wane and more and more scientists declare their dissent.”

See how global temperatures have declined according to NASA satellites since Hansen’s first testimony in June of 1988.

See larger image here

Jun 20, 2008
Climate Realist Declaration Tops 1,100 Endorsers

By Tom Harris

Since its creation in March by the International Climate Science Coalition (ICSC), the Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change has attracted signatories from 40 countries.  Although ignored by most media and governments, endorsement for the Declaration has rained in from hundreds of climate experts and other scientists, as well as professional engineers, economists, policy experts, medical doctors and average citizens.  The complete declaration text, endorser lists and international media contacts for expert commentary, may be viewed here.

The Manhattan Declaration concludes, “Attempts by governments to legislate costly regulations on industry and individual citizens to encourage CO2 reduction will slow development while having no appreciable impact on the future trajectory of global climate change.  Such policies will markedly diminish future prosperity and so reduce the ability of societies to adapt to inevitable climate change, thereby increasing, not decreasing human suffering.”

“Just as the Manhattan Project was key to finally ending the Second World War, the Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change may one day be regarded as a critical catalyst that helped end today’s climate hysteria,” said ICSC Science Advisory Board member, Professor Bob Carter of James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland. “Protecting the natural world is crucially important and so environmental policy must be based on our best understanding of science and technology coupled with a realistic appreciation of the relevant economics and policy options. This is not happening in the climate debate.”

The ICSC is an association of scientists, economists and energy and policy experts working to promote better public understanding of climate change. ICSC provides an analysis of climate science and policy issues which, being independent of lobby groups and vested political interests, is an alternative to advice from the IPCC. ICSC thereby fosters rational, evidence-based, open discussion about all climate, and climate-related, issues. For more information about the Manhattan Declaration or the realists’ view of climate change, go here.

“The hundreds of well qualified endorsers to the Manhattan Declaration should end, once and for all, the highly flawed notion that only a tiny number of so-called ‘skeptics’ dispute the science underlying the Kyoto Protocol”, said Carleton University Earth Sciences Professor and ICSC Chairman, Dr. Tim Patterson.  “Millions of Canadians are coming to understand that the only constant about climate IS change - it changes continually.  Yet, governments continue wasting our money on the ridiculous goal of stopping climate change”, even allocating millions of dollars to establish an electronic tracking system for units traded in the Montreal Climate Exchange, Canada’s first so-called carbon market (ref. May 30th announcement by Environment Minister, John Baird).

Jun 18, 2008
A Different Kind of Analog System for Ultra Long Range Forecasting

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

I have known Jim Witt for decades. He was Science Director for the Dutchess County schools in New York and co-founder of Fleetweather, Inc. In 1962 he initiated a very unique high school weather station at the school in which he taught. The United States Weather Bureau, extremely interested in the program, deemed it the most advanced high school weather program, not only in the entire United States but also in the entire world. Even in those very early years, he possessed a state-of-the-art Teletype machine, which brought current weather data directly into the school. He knew where it was snowing and when it would reach our area. This generated great excitement. He also had our own Weather Radar. This was donated, installed and repaired by Air Weather Service located in Lakehurst, New Jersey. In addition, he had access to computers; yes, even that far back he had use of computers, and the students used these constantly. Graduates of this weather program went on to get their doctorates in Meteorology and Computer Sciences and are now making their mark in prestigious positions such as: Director of Research of the National Hurricane Center, The Lead Forecaster for the NASA manned flight center, The Executive Vice President of Accu-weather, The Head Scientist and Director of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Another student has written the computer program (GFS Model) which all meteorologists in the world use each day to make their weather forecasts. Jim and his students also explored the solar system and its connection to weather. Jim has continued his research for many decades and has done a celendar each year with daily forecasts with every penny raised going directly to children who are seriously or terminally ill or who are physically or mentally challenged. To date, he has distributed over $1,700,000. He is well known in the New York area (see New York Times story here) for his long range forecasts and is a frequent guest on WOR radio. See some of the testimonials here for his calendar forecasts. 

Jim notes that lunar and solar cycles have a great influence, not only on our weather, but also on our climate. Years of pain staking research suggest they do. The sun is the main driver of our weather and climate. Much of his energies have centered on what really influences the sun and how these changes affect the jet stream, storm development and storm movement on earth. To produce a long-range weather forecast, all the information is fed into a series of computer programs. The programs then calculate an analog date. An analog date is a date, from the past, which has conditions (Sun & Earth, Sun & other Planets, Moon & Earth) similar to the date for which we are making the weather forecast. Unfortunately, weather observations at best, only “look back” one hundred years or so. This is just a “blink of an eye” when compared to the history of weather on earth. If the analog date happens to be a date from the 14th century, it is completely useless since no weather records exist that far back. Because of a lack of weather data during the “early years” it is very possible the analog date he will finally use could be the 4th, 5th or even 6th choice. Naturally, this will not nearly be as accurate as the first choice, the closest match.

Using this approach and gathering complete global historical data, Jim has with one of his former students, Neal Townsend, a specialist in weather computing, developed a very intriguing site here with forecasts for locations throughout the United States and abroad out two years.  Check it out. The first ten days are official government forecasts. Long range forecasts start day 11. His verification statistics are impressive. I have been often surprised how well the forecasts have verified especially for major events. I believe you may also.  I myself have used analog approaches for years using ENSO, QBO, PDO, solar and many other factors with some success. Jim’s approach takes a step back and looks at the factors that might actually control some of these events or indices and the intraseaonal variations we experience.  Again you can see the site here.

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