Political Climate
Aug 26, 2017
Harvey downgraded but flooding rains to continue for days as it meanders

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, WeatherBELL Analytics LLC Meteorologist

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Harvey came ashore as a major hurricane overnight but was down to 75mph in the late morning advisory and downgraded to a tropical storm early this afternoon. It was the first hurricane this decade in Texas and the first major hurricane since Alicia for Texas in 1983.

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This put an end to the record lull of major landfalling storms that reached 4326 day (almost 12 years). The last major storm was Wilma in October of 2005. The previous record lull was around 8 years in the 1860s.

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Hurricanes are no stranger to Texas. From 1980 to the present, at least 70 tropical or subtropical cyclones affected the U.S. state of Texas.

On September 8, 1900, the port city of Galveston in the U.S. state of Texas was struck by a Category 3 or 4 hurricane which resulted in the deaths of at least 8,000 people. It is the deadliest natural disaster in the history of the United States and the third costliest hurricane ever to strike the mainland.

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According to David Roth of the Weather Prediction Center, a tropical cyclone makes landfall along the Texas coastline about three times every four years, and on any 50 mile segment of the coastline a hurricane makes landfall about once every six years. His analysis was used to create the above graph of decadal hurricane and major hurricane landfalls in Texas.

Already over 20 inches of rain has fallen in a few spots as of early Sunday.

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See how far reaching the spiral bands around Harvey extend with heavy rains even to Louisiana.

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See the storm surge continue with the continued southeast flow and the feeder bands.

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See the major river and stream flooding.

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With the storm not forecast to leave the state until perhaps late next week, it seems likely to rank high among the record rainfall events and maybe challenge Amelia’s record of 48 inches in the week long rains in Medina, TX in July 30-August 5, 1978.

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Tornadoes frequently occur new the tropical storm bands as higher winds aloft get carried down in downdrafts in thunderstorms, spinning up vortices (usually EF0 or EF1 though some EF2 to EF4 tornadoes have occurred). 26 have occurred so far with more to come.

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NHC note:  Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 15 to 30 inches and isolated maximum amounts of 40 inches over the middle and upper Texas coast through Thursday. During the same time period Harvey is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 15 inches in far south Texas, the Texas Hill Country and southwest and central Louisiana. Rainfall of this magnitude will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flooding.

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Note: You can see cycles in Atlantic hurricane intensity.

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The hurricane activity in the Atlantic is tied to cycles of the Atlantic AMO warm and cold modes.

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See the frequency of major hurricanes and landfall in the warm and cold modes.

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The current warm mode may have peaked in 2005, when we ran out of storm names. That was the year of Katrina and Rita and Wilma. 

One last point - why did Harvey stall? With amazingly cool high pressure for August spread to the north, Harvey was blocked from recurving like most storms. The top 10 wet storms listed above were all trapped and long lived events. The biggest snowstorms come from storms that get captured and stall. CO2 plays no role in storm movement. A quiet sun though tends to produce more persistence.

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Aug 01, 2017
Second Supplement to our Petition for Reconsideration of EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding

What follows is the latest Press Release dated July 24, 2017 publicly announcing the fact our legal team has now submitted to EPA a Second Supplement to our Petition for Reconsideration of EPA’s GHG/CO2 Endangerment Finding. The Second Supplement to the Petition relies on a third new major peer reviewed scientific paper from James Wallace, Joseph D’Aleo and Craig Idso, published in June 2017. As stated in the Press Release below:

The Second Supplement to Petition states:

Adjustments that impart an ever-steeper upward trend in the data by removing the natural cyclical temperature patterns present in the data deprive the (Global Average Surface Temperature) GAST products from NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU of the credibility required for policymaking or climate modeling, particularly when they are relied on to drive trillions of dollars in expenditures.

The invalidation of the adjusted GAST data knocks yet another essential pillar out from under the lines of evidence that are the claimed foundation of the Endangerment Finding. As the Second Supplement to Petition states:

It is therefore inescapable that if the official GAST data from NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU are invalid, then both the “basic physical understanding” of climate and the climate models will also be invalid.

Our Ad Hoc Team, operating totally on a Pro Bono basis, submitted the Supplement in a further effort to encourage the EPA to grant our Petition for Reconsideration of its Endangerment Finding. This new Research provides a separate and distinct invalidation of its Finding.

Please make this Press Release publicly available by any means you feel appropriate. Its URL can be found here.

Please do not hesitate to call me or the lawyers listed under Media Contacts for further information on this matter.

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PRESS RELEASE
July 24, 2017

Electricity Consumers File New Study in Their Call for EPA to Reopen its Endangerment Finding

Key Points:

1.  Just Released, new research findings demonstrate that adjustments by government agencies to the global average surface temperature (GAST) record render that record totally inconsistent with published credible temperature data sets and useless for any policy purpose.

2.  The new results invalidate the claims based on GAST data of “record warming” in recent years, and thereby also invalidate the so-called “lines of evidence” on which EPA claimed to base its 2009 CO2 Endangerment Finding.

3.  If the Endangerment Finding is not vacated, whether the current administration likes it or not, it is certain that electric utility, automotive and many other industries will face ongoing EPA CO2 regulation.

4.  This scientifically illiterate regulation will raise U.S. energy prices thereby reducing economic growth and jobs.

July 24, 2017

The Concerned Household Electricity Consumers Council announces that on July 6, 2017 it filed with EPA a Second Supplement to the Council’s January 20, 2017 Petition asking the Agency to reconsider the scientifically invalid Endangerment Finding on which all Obama-era greenhouse gas regulations are based. The Second Supplement to Petition may be found here

The Council’s original Petition (see) and First Supplement to Petition (see) demonstrated that the Endangerment Finding is nothing more than assumptions that have each been disproved by the most relevant empirical evidence from the real world. The original Petition was substantially based on a major peer-reviewed 2016 scientific paper by James Wallace, John Christy and Joseph D’Aleo (Wallace 2016) that analyzed the best available temperature data sets and “failed to find that the steadily rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations have had a statistically significant impact on any of the 13 critically important tropical and global temperature time series data sets analyzed.” The full text of Wallace 2016 may be found here.

The First Supplement to Petition was substantially based on a new April 2017 peer reviewed scientific paper, also from the same authors (Wallace 2017A). Wallace 2017A can be found here.  Wallace 2017A concluded that once impacts of natural factors such as solar, volcanic and ENSO activity are accounted for, there is no “natural factor adjusted” warming remaining to be attributed to rising atmospheric CO2 levels.

The Second Supplement to the Petition now relies on a third new major peer reviewed scientific paper from James Wallace, Joseph D’Aleo and Craig Idso, published in June 2017 (Wallace 2017B). Wallace 2017B analyzes the GAST data issued by U.S. agencies NASA and NOAA, as well as British group Hadley CRU. In this research report past changes in the previously reported historical data are quantified. It was found that each new version of GAST has nearly always exhibited a steeper warming linear trend over its entire history. And, this result was nearly always accomplished by each entity systematically removing the previously existing cyclical temperature pattern. This was true for all three entities providing GAST data measurement, NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU.

The Second Supplement to Petition states:

Adjustments that impart an ever-steeper upward trend in the data by removing the natural cyclical temperature patterns present in the data deprive the GAST products from NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU of the credibility required for policymaking or climate modeling, particularly when they are relied on to drive trillions of dollars in expenditures.

The invalidation of the adjusted GAST data knocks yet another essential pillar out from under the lines of evidence that are the claimed foundation of the Endangerment Finding. As the Second Supplement to Petition states:

It is therefore inescapable that if the official GAST data from NOAA, NASA and Hadley CRU are invalid, then both the “basic physical understanding” of climate and the climate models will also be invalid.

The scientific invalidity of the Endangerment Finding becomes more blindingly obvious and undeniable with each day’s accumulation of reliable empirical data. It is time for an honest and rigorous scientific re-evaluation of this Obama-era political document. The nation has been taken down a tragically foolish path of pointless regulations and wasteful mal-investments to “solve” a problem which does not actually exist. Our leaders must summon the courage to acknowledge the truth and act accordingly.

The Council brought its Petition because the Obama-era greenhouse gas regulations threaten, as President Obama himself conceded, to make the price of electricity “skyrocket.” All Americans will benefit from a new era where the cheapest sources of energy can also compete and prevail in the marketplace.

Media Contacts:

Harry W. MacDougald
Caldwell Propst & DeLoach LLP
Two Ravinia Drive, Suite 1600
Atlanta, Georgia 30346
(404) 843-1956
hmacdougald@cpdlawyers.com

Francis Menton
Law Office of Francis Menton
85 Broad Street, 18th floor
New York, New York 10004
(212) 627-1796
fmenton@manhattancontrarian.com

“I would rather have questions that can’t be answered, than answers that can’t be questioned.” - Nobel Laureate Richard Feynman, Physics



Jul 31, 2017
Mainland US and Florida Hurricane ‘drought’

Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

WeatherBELL Analytics, LLC

A weak tropical storm Emily came ashore in Florida this morning.

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It will cross into the Atlantic and maintain tropical storm intensity according to NHC.

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The chart above shows the intervals between major hurricane landfalls in Florida as of August 4, 2016. A year later, we will be now at an amazing 4302 days, twice the original record.

You can see cycles in Atlantic hurricane intensity.

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The hurricane activity in the Atlantic is tied to cycles of the Atlantic AMO warm and cold modes.

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See the frequency of major hurricanes and landfall in the warm and cold modes.

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Florida peninsula escaped a major landfall during the first 9 summers of the latest warm mode starting in 1995.

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Then came 2004 with three storms and in the panhandle Ivan and then Wilma in 2005.

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The four significant hurricanes hurt citrus like 1960s and 1989s devastating freezes.

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The current SSTA pattern in not like 2004 in the North Pacific though it was similarly Modoki-like in the tropics and somewhat similar in the Atlantic.

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See the difference.

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We will battle Saharan Dust a while longer. Usually Atlantic pressure changes diminish that by mid August. The season rises quickly to a peak around September 10.

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See the western Atlantic and Caribbean are primed with high ocean heat content, typical of the late summer.

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