The right strategy wins the war Gifts, gadgets, weather stations, software and here!\
The Blogosphere
Thursday, June 19, 2008
May Global Data All In - NASA GISS Biggest Outlier Again

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM, AMS Fellow

All the data sources have now reported for global May temperatures with Hadley coming in today. University of Alabama MSU was the coldest with a -0.18C. RSS MSS was a close second with -0.083C. Hadley had a +0.278C and NASA GISS came in at +0.36C.

UAH and RSS MSU satellite data uses a base period (period over which monthly climatological averages are computed for the purposes of then determining departures from normal for any given month) of 1979-1998.  NASA GISS uses the coldest period of the last century 1951 to 1980. Hadley uses 1961 to 1990 as a base period (with two cold decades and one increasingly warm). NCDC in their USHCN uses the entire period of record (back to 1895), in my mind probably the most reasonable since it includes two cold and two warm periods. Your local NWS uses the latest three complete decades (1971 to 2000) for it averages and to compute departures from normal. That is the long established standard for the local offices. You see there are no agreed to standards for the longer term records, so at least for anomalies, we are always comparing apples with oranges with pears with plums.

Obviously satellite provides the best coverage of the all but the polar land and oceans. The other data bases in addition to their differences in base periods, are at the mercy of the country governments data collection and have huge holes in the data over land and very spotty imperfect ocean temperature measurements, especially in the Southern Hemisphere.

There are other major issues with the global data bases. 2/3rds pf the world’s station dropped out after 1990 and the number of missing months in places like Asia and Africa increased tenfold. Siting has been shown so well by Anthony Watts at to ba an issue with more than 2/3rds of the United States stations poorly sited. The importance of urbanization is underestimated thanks to the flawed research of Peterson and Parker in all the global surface data bases. Numerous peer-reviewed studies have shown that surface data bases may overestimate warming by up to 50%. And then there is the issue of the oceans which each of the data centers treat differently and now will likely change the data to better reflect a more gradual changeover from buckets to ship intakes. See more on that issue in Steve McIntyre’s Lost at Sea here.

See larger image here

All four plotted data sets, yes even GISS, shows a decline since 2002. GISS has the largest positive anomaly because it uses the coldest base period. Satellites, the coldest since, their base period (by chance) was in the warmest decades (of the positive PDO with most El Ninos).  Note how well the temperature variations have tied to the variations of ENSO (El Nino) in just the last decade, in this case using the Mulitvariate ENSO Index (MEI) of CDC’s Wolter. ENSO and the longer term PDO are the real drivers for decadal climate change, used to support the greenhouse gang from 1979 to around 2002 but now has them on the defensive. If the cooling continues as we believe it will, they will have to resort to even more creative data manipulation to keep the hoax alive. But this will become increasingly apparent because they have no control over the satellite measurements.

See larger image here

Posted on 06/19 at 03:15 AM
(0) TrackbacksPermalink

Wednesday, June 18, 2008
NASA Mission Poised to Help Us Gauge Our Rising Seas

NASA Mission Seas

Icecap Note: You will note the Hansen influence on this story. Instead of just reporting the facts, they have to repeat the talking points of the alarmist agenda. We support NASA’s and NOAA’s technology attempts and the work of Willis et al. We hope the data from the new satellites is not subject to the so called “quality assurance” adjustments GISS and NCDC are so famous for with their outlier GISS/GHCN data bases.  Let the data speak for itself.

Global sea level has risen 20 centimeters (eight inches) in the past 100 years, and the rate of rise is predicted to accelerate as Earth warms. Melting ice from Greenland and Antarctica could raise sea level more than one meter (three feet) over the next century. One obvious threat is inundation, or loss of land to rising water. Other consequences are more complex, but equally problematic--a warmer ocean can fuel more intense storms; environmental changes can adversely affect ocean life, such as coral reefs and fisheries; and alterations in ocean currents can trigger radical changes in Earth’s climate.

The best hope for anticipating the future is to understand the past and present. For global sea level, the first step has been to measure it accurately, a challenge in itself. Records of global sea level in the past come from averaging tide gauge readings from many locations. But since the launch of Topex/Poseidon in 1992, followed by Jason-1 in 2001, scientists have had a precise measurement of the height of the global ocean every 10 days. Now the Ocean Surface Topography Mission/Jason-2, scheduled to launch June 20 from California’s Vandenberg Air Force Base, will continue this critical task.

For a closer look at ocean heat, scientists turn to temperature and other measurements made by the thousands of Argo floats. “The Argo profilers give us a good representation of the upper 1,000 meters (3,281 feet) of the ocean,” Chambers said. “And since altimeters and Grace measure the total ocean, using what we know about the upper ocean from Argo gives us an idea about what’s going on below in the deep ocean, about which we have little data.”

“We know the basics of sea level rise very well,” said JPL oceanographer and climate scientist Josh Willis. But several critical elements still need to be resolved, he stressed. “Everything doesn’t quite add up yet.” For example, in a recent study, Willis, Chambers and their colleague Steven Nerem of the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research in Boulder, compared the amount of ocean warming during 2003 to 2007 observed by the Argo buoys with the amount of warming calculated by combining Grace and Jason-1 altimeter data. While the two measurements closely matched with regard to seasonal ups and downs, they didn’t agree at all on the total amount of warming. In fact, the Argo data showed no warming at all, while the combined Jason and Grace data did.

See NASA graph. Notice downturn in last year. See larger image here

See larger image here

Again this may be the result of the ocean cooling the last year from the flip of the PDO and La Nina which causes compression and/or growth of the Antarctic and maybe even Greenland ice sheets. 

Posted on 06/18 at 01:23 AM
(0) TrackbacksPermalink

Sunday, June 15, 2008
Global Warming and the Price of a Gallon of Gas

By John Coleman - As Presented to the San Diego Chamber of Commerce

You may want to give credit where credit is due to Al Gore and his global warming campaign the next time you fill your car with gasoline, because there is a direct connection between Global Warming and four dollar a gallon gas.  It is shocking, but true, to learn that the entire Global Warming frenzy is based on the environmentalist’s attack on fossil fuels, particularly gasoline.  All this big time science, international meetings, thick research papers, dire threats for the future; all of it, comes down to their claim that the carbon dioxide in the exhaust from your car and in the smoke stacks from our power plants is destroying the climate of planet Earth.  What an amazing fraud; what a scam.

The future of our civilization lies in the balance. That’s the battle cry of the High Priest of Global Warming Al Gore and his fellow, agenda driven disciples as they predict a calamitous outcome from anthropogenic global warming.  According to Mr. Gore the polar ice caps will collapse and melt and sea levels will rise 20 feet inundating the coastal cities making 100 million of us refugees.  Vice President Gore tells us numerous Pacific islands will be totally submerged and uninhabitable.  He tells us global warming will disrupt the circulation of the ocean waters, dramatically changing climates, throwing the world food supply into chaos. He tells us global warming will turn hurricanes into super storms, produce droughts, wipe out the polar bears and result in bleaching of coral reefs. He tells us tropical diseases will spread to mid latitudes and heat waves will kill tens of thousands.  He preaches to us that we must change our lives and eliminate fossil fuels or face the dire consequences.  The future of our civilization is in the balance. With a preacher’s zeal, Mr. Gore sets out to strike terror into us and our children and make us feel we are all complicit in the potential demise of the planet. Mr. Gore and his crowd would have us believe that the activities of man have overwhelmed nature during this interglacial period and are producing an unprecedented, out of control warming.

Here is my rebuttal. There is no significant man made global warming.  There has not been any in the past, there is none now and there is no reason to fear any in the future. The climate of Earth is changing. It has always changed.  But mankind’s activities have not overwhelmed or significantly modified the natural forces. 

It is simply not happening.  Worldwide there was a significant natural warming trend in the 1980’s and 1990’s as a Solar cycle peaked with lots of sunspots and solar flares.  That ended in 1998 and now the Sun has gone quiet with fewer and fewer Sun spots, and the global temperatures have gone into decline.  Earth has cooled for almost ten straight years.  So, I ask Al Gore, where’s the global warming? If Al Gore and his global warming scare dictates the future policy of our governments, the current economic downturn could indeed become a recession, drift into a depression and our modern civilization could fall into an abyss. And it would largely be a direct result of the global warming frenzy.

My mission, in what is left of a long and exciting lifetime, is to stamp out this Global Warming silliness and let all of us get on with enjoying our lives and loving our planet, Earth. Read John’s full speech here. Update: See this video on Red Eye interviewing John Coleman here.
John Coleman was the original founder of cable TV’s The Weather Channel and has been a television meteorologist in Chicago, New York and now San Diego.


Posted on 06/15 at 05:07 PM
(0) TrackbacksPermalink

Environmentalists Take Advantage of Natural Disaster - Blame Midwest Floods on Global Warming

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

In the latest in a series of predictable news stories gobbled up by an all too willing media, an environmental group Clean Wisconsin today claimed that the disastrous floods that ravaged southern Wisconsin this week are consistent with global warming predictions in the January 2007 Clean Wisconsin report. The report, “Global Warming Arrives in Wisconsin,” forecast that global warming would lead to increased instances of severe droughts, more intense floods and increased snowfall.

Alarmists have adopted the can’t lose position that all extremes of weather - cold, warm, wet or dry are all due to global warming. They blamed the frequent tornadoes of the late winter and spring on global warming even though the number was not at all atypical of a La Nina year. Southern Wisconsin and much of the Midwest has had a rough winter and spring but it has been the antithesis of global warming.

Wisconsin had its 33 coldest winter on record, nearby Iowa its 19th coldest in 114 years. The cool weather continued into the spring with the 22nd coldest spring on record in Wisconsin and 24th in Iowa.  Madison, Wisconsin had the snowiest winter on record, topping 100 inches for the first time ever. See summary and map here

The record snows, severe weather and heavy rainfall has been the result of rapid COOLING in the northern tier of the United States and Canada not global warming. The flooding exceeded the floods of 1993 following the eruption of Pinatubo which produced a similar cooling with a strong suppressed jet stream that brought a steady stream of storms and flooding.

Rapid warming as took place in the 1930s and again around 1980 leads to drought and record heat. The alarmist movement is reeling after the warming stopped in 1998 and cooling began in 2002, accelerating in the last year. Their claims have now morphed from warming to focusing on the extremes typical of La Nina and the colder decades to try and keep their hoax alive.

See larger map here.

Posted on 06/15 at 02:11 AM
(1) TrackbacksPermalink

Saturday, June 14, 2008
Global Warming as Religion and not Science

By John Brignell

“Men never do evil so completely and cheerfully as when they do it from religious conviction.” Blaise Pascal

It was Michael Crichton who first prominently identified environmentalism as a religion. That was in a speech in 2003, but the world has moved on apace since then and adherents of the creed now have a firm grip on the world at large. Global Warming has become the core belief in a new eco-theology. The term is used as shorthand for anthropogenic (or man made) global warming. It is closely related to other modern belief systems, such as political correctness, chemophobia and various other forms of scaremongering, but it represents the vanguard in the assault on scientific man.

The activists now prefer to call it “climate change”. This gives them two advantages: It allows them to seize as “evidence” the inevitable occurrences of unusually cold weather as well as warm ones.  The climate is always changing, so they must be right. Only the relatively elderly can remember the cynical haste with which the scaremongers dropped the “coming ice age” and embraced exactly the opposite prediction, but aimed at the same culprit - industry. This was in Britain, which was the cradle of the new belief and was a response to the derision resulting from the searing summer of 1976. The father of the new religion was Sir Crispin Tickell, and because he had the ear of Prime Minister, Margaret Thatcher, who was engaged in a battle with the coal miners and the oil sheiks, it was introduced into international politics with the authority of the only major political leader holding a qualification in science. The introduction was timely yet ironic since, in the wake of the world’s political upheavals, a powerful new grouping of left-wing interests was coalescing around environmental issues. The result was a new form of godless religion. The global warming cult has the characteristics of religion and not science for the following reasons.

Faith is a belief held without evidence. The scientific method, a loose collection of procedures of great variety, is based on precisely the opposite concept, as famously declared by Thomas Henry Huxley: The improver of natural knowledge absolutely refuses to acknowledge authority, as such. For him, scepticism is the highest of duties; blind faith the one unpardonable sin. The global warmers like to use the name of science, but they do not like its methods. They promote slogans such a “The science is settled” when real scientists know that science is never settled. They were not, however, always so wise. In 1900, for example, the great Lord Kelvin famously stated, “There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement.” Within a few years classical physics was shattered by Einstein and his contemporaries. Since then, in science, the debate is never closed. Read the other reasons and much more of this essay here.

Posted on 06/14 at 08:52 PM
(0) TrackbacksPermalink

Wednesday, June 11, 2008
Politicization of Climate Science Conferences

By Robert M. Carter, James Cook University, Townsville

The Wellington Climate Change and Governance conference succeeded in reinforcing the already strong public impression that dangerous human-caused climate change is occurring, and that this change can be prevented by limiting human emissions of greenhouse gas. However, to the degree that the conference was intended to contribute to a balanced public debate on human-caused global warming, it failed. The major sponsors of the conference included organisations whose charter includes the disinterested presentation of high-quality science, and civil social responsibility; these organisations failed in their duty of public care.

In addition, media coverage of the conference was “balanced” in only the most superficial way; news reports concentrated heavily on climate alarmism, and failed to follow up on the caveats which were expressed by the more responsible speakers at the conference.  Troublesome ethical issues emerge, the most important of which include the role in society of scientific organisations and universities, and the way in which government-employed and other scientists are today constrained in the public comment that they can make on controversial issues of the day. Another major concern is the way in which scientific results are now routinely deployed into the public domain with a clear propaganda intent.

The Wellington climate conference displayed clearly the unacceptable price that society pays when it allows science to be corrupted by politicization. The future assessment of complex scientific and technological issues like climate change needs to be much more rigorously bias-proofed. At the very least this will require the routine use of counterweight and audit panels for rigorous verification of all major policy recommendations. These major conclusions about the Wellington climate conference apply also to many other similar climate meetings that are held around the world.” Read more here.

Posted on 06/11 at 05:54 PM
(0) TrackbacksPermalink

Tuesday, June 10, 2008
While East Bakes, West Gets Record Cold and Snow

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

In the Seattle Times story Think it’s cold? You have good reason, Susan Gilmore reports “Seattle just experienced the coldest first week of June, according to climate records dating to 1891, said Cliff Mass, University of Washington meteorologist. “Just wait until tomorrow,” he said, when temperatures are going to be even colder. A heavy snow warning has been issued for the Washington Cascades and Olympics as a storm from the Gulf of Alaska plows into the state tonight. Forecasters with the National Weather Service said up to a foot of snow may fall in the mountains as low as 3,000 feet. In 30 years I can only remember two other times when it snowed this late in the season,” said Sam Krahenbuhl, Snoqualmie Pass assistant maintenance superintendent. “One time it snowed on a Fourth of July weekend. This is really rare."While it won’t snow in the Puget Sound area, records for the lowest high temperature may be broken today and Tuesday. In eastern Washington at Washington Sate University in Pullman, it snowed on June 10th.

WSU Campus Pullman, WA, June 10, 2008

Mass added: “People are really upset about this weather."He said in the mix of all the statistics, he’s put together (with former Assistant State Climatologist Mark Albright) the “barbecue” index. That’s the number of times since March 11 (the usual start of spring here) temperature climbs to 60 degrees or more - a temperature that Mass thinks people are comfortable being outside in."It turns out that this year was the worst year of the barbecue index since 1917,” said Mass. “We only got to 60 degrees 23 times this year. Compare that to 1934 (74) times or 1992 (69) times."Mass said the coldest spring was 1917. This year is tied with 1908 for 2nd coldest, he said. The warmest spring was 1934.

Meanwhile The Aspen Skiing Company said Monday that it will open up Aspen Mountain from June 13 to 15 for skiers and snowboarders. The company says record winter snowfall has left the mountain covered with snow, leaving behind an average of more than 3 feet of snow on the upper slopes. And Missoula, Montana’s water park is closing due to cold weather ‘to protect children from hypothermia’ while Badger Pass recorded 40 inches of snow from June 10-12th.

Icecap Note: There has been plenty of cold air to go around this spring. The summer warmth has been suppressed south. This week the heat has has made an intrusion into the east as the cold air has dipped into the west. After a chilly start to the month in the northeast, the first 90 plus degree days of the season followed last weekend and early this week. Even though cold air is likely to continue to drop into the Pacific Northwest, some of the cooler air will increasingly make its way east and put an end to the current heat.

Ironically. just last week, Seattle’s mayor, Mayor Greg Nickels and his Seattle Parks and Recreation might do what even this week’s chilly weather couldn’t—douse the long tradition of beach bonfires at Alki and at Golden Gardens for fueling global warming!  So poor Seattle folks can’t have bonfires because they contribute to global warming but can’t barbecue because it is too cold. You just can’t make this stuff up. 

Posted on 06/10 at 01:32 AM
(1) TrackbacksPermalink

Monday, June 09, 2008
Cool Spring Brings Tornadoes and Flooding to the Central States

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

This spring has been extremely wet and stormy in the central states thanks to a suppressed La Nina jet stream and strong contrast from cold in the north to warmth in the deep south. Storms riding on the supercharged jet stream and feeding on the heat and moisture have produced severe weather and excessive rainfall.  Tornadoes are in the news almost daily, most recently in Omaha. Rivers are in flood in parts of the Midwest where rainfall (well over 20 inches in the last 3 months in places) has even exceeded spring levels in the record flood season of 1993. That doesn’t necessarily mean that this year in the end will have more flooding than in 1993 but it does often have a lot to say about what the summer will be like.

See large NOAA AHPS map here

There is a relationship between soil moisture and both precipitation and temperatures that becomes important in the spring and summer months. Forecasters pay close attention to this factor in their forecasts for summer. Soil moisture anomalies of significance tend to persist from spring to summer, except when major events like a landfalling hurricane act to intervene.

Very wet soils favor wetter summers and less extremes of heat (though not necessarily discomfort) in the summer, while very dry soils increase the chances of summer heat and drought. That is because wet soils and vegetation in the soil lead to more evaporation and transpiration of moisture, which is a cooling process that tends to hold daytime readings down. At night the elevated moisture content reduces the radiational cooling. With more moisture there may be more nighttime fog especially in valley areas and during the day more clouds, lower temperatures and better chances of showers from any lifting mechanisms. In this way wet areas favor more rainfall.

When the ground is very dry on the other hand, there is little evaporation and less plant transpiration especially if the water table is greatly lowered. The suns heat is more effective in warming ground temperatures. Higher temperatures and less moisture means lower humidity which desiccate the ground and vegetation further. There is less cloudiness and lifting mechanisms are much less effective in producing rainfall. In this way drought begets drought. Not surprisingly, there is a high persistence of soil moisture and Palmer Drought Indices from late spring into summer. See in this story why spring soil moisture is a good indicator of both summer rainfall and temperatures with example years. 

Posted on 06/09 at 04:55 PM
(0) TrackbacksPermalink

Saturday, June 07, 2008
U.S. Has 36th Coolest Spring on Record

The March-May spring season was the 36th coolest on record for the contiguous United States, according to an analysis by NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Separately, last month ended as the 34th coolest May for the contiguous United States, based on records dating back to 1895.

See full size map here

The average spring temperature of 51.4 degrees F was 0.5 degree F below the 20th century average. The average May temperature of 60.3 degrees F was 0.7 degree F below the 20th century mean, based on preliminary data.

For the spring, Missouri had its fourth wettest, Arkansas its sixth wettest, Indiana and Iowa their eighth wettest and Illinois its 10th wettest. For May, Arizona, Maryland, and Nebraska were much wetter than average, with Nebraska ranking fourth wettest and Maryland fifth wettest on record. California had its driest spring on record, while Nevada and Utah had their 10th and 11th driest on record.

See full size map here

Posted on 06/07 at 03:20 AM
(0) TrackbacksPermalink

Friday, June 06, 2008
Say No to New NOAA Climate Service

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

NOAA wants to establish a National Climate Service.  Although more coordinated efforts and improvements are needed, NOAA has not shown the ability to accurately assess global temperatures nor look behind the discredited carbon driven climate change theory. Their one pager PDF says it all. Though they correctly noted the need to “clarify and consolidate information regarding the causes and effects of climate change”, they only show the CO2 trend and their faulty GHCN global temperatures. This is virtually the same bogus data set that NASA GISS uses that Steve Goddard (with help from Steve McIntyre) showed in the Register here was out of touch with reality as shown by satellites which cover the earth far better and are not subject to the siting and local urban contamination.

NCDC in 2007 removed an urban adjustment that their director, Tom Karl developed in 1988 in the version 2 of the USHCN data base. This exaggerated recent warming. Their global data base is a mess thanks to Peterson and Parker and major holes in the data. Steve Mcintyre has clearly shown the flaws in the studies by NCDC’s Tom Peterson (paper here) and the UK Hadley Center’s David Parker (paper here). Roger Pielke Sr. has done likewise on Climate Science numerous times including here . These studies have been used as excuses to minimize urban and local adjustments in the global data bases and support the politically correct warming. Also a recent paper in Nature showed how improper analysis of global sea surface temperatures occurred based on incorrect assumptions about the timing of a switchover from buckets to ship intake measurements. It was covered here. NOAA however deserves credit for the implementation of the 3000 global diving buoys that will provide better assessments of global ocean heat content, like the satellites a better way to assess climate change.

There is no acknowledgement of the need to address global data base deficiencies in the NOAA proposal. Nor is there any mention of other climate factors like the sun or ocean cycles (short-term like ENSO and longer term multidecadal like PDO and AMO). Like the some other foreign climate centers, they show they would focus on greenhouse forcing, which is now almost on a daily basis becoming discredited.

I see no need for a new multi million or billion dollar National Climate Service. I think they should focus existing centers like NCDC and CPC on developing improved methods for assessing accurate national and global climate changes, including a reconsideration of the possible roles of other factors like urbanization, land use changes, the sun and oceans in past and future climate change. See pdf of this blog with links here.

Posted on 06/06 at 06:15 PM
(193) TrackbacksPermalink

Global Warming in a Cooling World

By Bob Webster, WebCommentary

Headlines from around the world strongly suggest that the ardor for “doing something” about carbon emissions has cooled substantially, just as has global temperatures over recent years. Cooling ardor is due to the sobering recognition that the costs of current “green” proposals will far exceed any benefit. A cooling planet is most likely due to the same natural cycles that drove the natural warming of the ‘80s and ‘90s on whose back the “global warming” zealots hitched their propaganda campaign.

It should be worth noting that Gallup poll results show Republicans more in line with current international opinion than Democrats, who apparently haven’t looked out the window and noticed the cooling in recent years. This might be explained by the dominance of liberals in the Democrat Party. Also contributing to the disparity between Republicans and Democrats is their different perceptions of media honesty. Republicans are highly suspicious of media pronouncements; Democrats generally accept them as truth. American Liberalism is very much a religion with its tenets simply accepted on faith and never questioned. Whatever NPR says is taken as absolute truth. Gore is a prophet in the American Liberal mind. Therefore, human-caused global warming must be true, regardless of any evidence to the contrary.

During the 2000s global emissions of CO2 have risen at an accelerated pace (3% per year), principally due to rapid increases in Chinese emissions as a large number of coal-fired electricity-generating plants have come online. According to the IPCC theory, rising emissions should yield ever-increasing temperatures. Yet global temperatures have remained essentially stable over the past 10 years and the current year has seen a very significant drop in global temperatures. Simply put, climate is not behaving as the alarmists’ theory says it should. In fact, it is doing precisely the opposite! It’s a hard sell to convince people they need to roll back their quality of life to thwart off an imaginary catastrophe that real climate trends suggest is simply not going to happen. Read more here.

Posted on 06/06 at 04:29 PM
(93) TrackbacksPermalink

Wednesday, June 04, 2008
May Global 4th Coldest in UAH MSU Satellite Record

By Joseph D’Aleo

The University of Alabama MSU lower tropospheric data just released showed this May was the 4th coldest May for the globe since that record began in 1979. It was also below the average for both hemispheres. It trailed only 1985, a weak El Nino at the tail end of the El Chichon cold period, 1989, a summer following a strong La Nina, and 1992, the year after Pinatubo. It was just 0.003 colder than 1993, another Pinatubo affected year that ranked 5th.

This year is coming off a strong La Nina and a cold Pacific (negative PDO). Satellite monitoring began in 1979. Had it been available before the Great Pacific Climate Shift, you would find more such cold May years.

See larger table here

For more than 75% of the nation, according to the CDC, May was cooler than normal, as much as 7.5F below in the far North Central.
See larger map here

This is in sharp contrast to May 2007 which was warm in the same areas it was cold this year. May 2007 was the 11th warmest May for the US.
See larger map here

That continues the downslide we have seen starting in 2002 which accelerated the last year with the Pacific cooling and La Nina.

See the larger image here.

The next week will see a sudden arrival of summer temperatures in the east and central United States as the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is in a location that favors a western North American trough and the building of a southeast and south central ridge. After mid-month, the MJO should advance to a spot favoring the trough coming east and the ridge backing up to the south central and Rockies/Intermountain. The heat will retreat west gain and more normal June readings will return to the east.

Posted on 06/04 at 07:59 PM
(719) TrackbacksPermalink

Sunday, June 01, 2008
‘Forget Climate Change, We Should Spend on Nutrition’

Mark Henderson, Science Editor, Copenhagen, Times Online

Malnutrition should be the world’s major priority for aid and development, a panel of eight leading economists, including five Nobel laureates, declared yesterday. The provision of supplements of vitamin A and zinc to children in developing countries, to prevent avoidable deficiencies that affect hundreds of millions of children, is the most cost-effective way of making the world a better place, the Copenhagen Consensus initiative has found.

Three other strategies for improving diets in poor nations were also named among the top six of 30 challenges assessed by the project, which aims to prioritise solutions to the world’s many problems according to their costs and benefits.  Efforts to control global warming by cutting greenhouse gas emissions, however, were rated at the bottom of the league table, as the economists considered the high costs of such action were not justified by the payoffs. Research into new low-carbon technologies, such as solar and nuclear fusion power, was ranked as more worthwhile, in 14th place.

The previous Copenhagen Consensus, held in 2004, also listed global warming as its lowest priority. The exercise was organised by Bjorn Lomborg, the controversial Danish statistician who has long argued that though climate change is real, current approaches to fighting it offer poor value for money.  Dr Lomborg said: “This gives us the ultimate overview of how global decisions can best be made and how we can best spend money to do good in the world. Prioritising is hard. It’s much easier to say we want to do everything, but unfortunately we have limited resources. We don’t just focus on what’s fashionable, but also on what’s rational.”


See the rankings of the 30 major programs here. See the Times story here.

Posted on 06/01 at 10:52 PM
(748) TrackbacksPermalink

May 2008 Was Another Cold Month

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

For more than 75% of the nation, May was cooler than normal, as much as 7.5F below in the far North Central.
See larger map here

This is in sharp contrast to May 2007 which was warm in the same areas it was cold this year. May 2007 was the 11th warmest May for the US.
See larger map here

We will see in a few days where this May ranks. Clearly it will be colder than normal. UAH MSU daily data suggest a colder than average May for the globe too.  That continues the downslide we have seen starting in 2002 which accelerated the last year with the Pacific cooling and La Nina. Meanwhile Antarctic ice remains at 1 million square kilometers ahead of last year at this time and ahead of the average since 1979. If it stays at this anomaly, we will surpass the record set late last winter there. The arctic ice is similar to late May at this time after recovering nicely this past winter from record low levels in September and October. Only time will tell whether the same flow patterns will develop in June that developed last year to rapidly diminish the ice. See more here

Posted on 06/01 at 10:00 PM
(648) TrackbacksPermalink

Friday, May 30, 2008
Lost at Sea

By Steve McIntyre on Climate Audit

Thompson et al 2008, writing in Nature, assure their readers, the data before ~1940 and after the mid-1960s are not expected to require further corrections for changes from uninsulated bucket to engine room intake measurements.  Is there a shred of evidence to support this assertion? There is convincing evidence otherwise - evidence already reported here. While Thompson et al do confirm some Climate Audit observations, on essential points, their analysis is actually a step backwards from my 2007 posts (one here).

The hypothesis of the original Hadley Center Windowed Marine De-trending program was that there was an approximate 0.3 deg C inhomogeneity between engine inlet SST measurements and canvas bucket measurements and that there was a drop-dead changeover on December 1941, a switch which continued in place to the present day.

In earlier posts, I showed that there was strong documentary evidence against this assumption and hypothesized that there was a return to “business as usual” after the war.  On the post-1960s period, they have completely lost their bearings and are, so to speak, lost at sea. Thompson et al 2008 completely failed to discuss or cite the most relevant graphic in Kent et al - a graphic previously reproduced at Climate Audit on a number of occasions - and reproduced one more time below. This graphic, based on a very comprehensive examination of metadata, showed the distribution of measurement type from 1970 to 2006.

See full size image

In 1970, as I observed last year, about 90% (this is a visual estimate from the graphic) of SST measurements, for which the type is known, were done by buckets. Because the proportion with metadata is a very large sample, it’s plausible to use this 90% estimate for the entire population, including the unknown population. Between 1970 and 2006, the proportion of bucket and engine inlet measurements is more or less reversed, with about 90% of SST measurements in the 2000s being engine inlet or hull sensor, the latter by the way, being a further addition to the witches’ brew that the Nature boys didn’t mention at all.  However, Thompson et al 2008 completely failed to grasp the significance of this graphic. The changeover to engine inlet measurements, previously attributed to a drop-dead date in 1941, actually took place after 1970 (providing, of course, for a one-off WW2 adjustment ending in 1945).

Icecap Note: In an earlier post here in this comment Steve noted “I took the graphic (above) in which the Folland adjustment was phased in allowing for the fact that 90% of known SST measurements in 1970 were done by bucket and not engine inlet and regressed that against a solar index that I had handy (Lean 1995) and plotted the two series together. Here’s what I got and this is the first pass without any attempt at designing:

See full size image

The correlation between the two series was 0.80 going from 1850 to 1995, the last year of the Lean 1995 solar estimate. I’ll compare this to Lean 2000 as well. This isn’t a “decadal” correlation or some such either. This is using the annual data.” Icecap Note: As another commenter noted, Real Climate which claimed the rapid cooling after WWII refuted the solar as a factor needs to rethink that (and a lot more). Read more of Lost at Sea here.

Update see the Battle between Real Climate and Prometheus over this issue here.

Posted on 05/30 at 04:04 AM
(105) TrackbacksPermalink

Page 74 of 90 pages « First  <  72 73 74 75 76 >  Last »


The Inhofe EPW Press Blog

Global Warming Scare

Where is Global Warming (Bruce Hall Collection)

Dr. Roy Spencer

Demand Debate

Gary Sharp’s It’s All About Time

Climate Cycle Changes

Science and Environmental Policy Project

Scientific Alliance

Joanne Nova- The Skeptic’s Handbook

The Reference Frame - Lubos Motl’s weblog

Roy Spencer’s Nature’s Thermostat

Climate Science: Roger Pielke Sr. Research Group Weblog

Carbon Folly

Earth Changes

Finland Lustia Dendrochronology Project


Bald-Faced Truth

TWTW Newsletters

Analysis Online

Raptor Education Foundation

Climate Skeptic

COAPS Climate Study US

John Daly’s What the Stations Say

Warwick Hughes

Web Commentary

Marshall Institute Climate Change

Energy Tribune

The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition

Blue Crab Boulevard

Redneck USA

CO2 Sceptics

Climate Resistance

Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT)

MPU Blog

James Spann’s Blog

Weatherbell Analytics

Musings of the Chiefio

Ross McKitrick Google Home Page

Gore Lied

Blue Hill Observatory, Milton MA

Tom Nelson Blogroll

Carbonated Climate

Junk Science

Accuweather Global Warming

Tom Skilling’s Blog

Global Warming Skeptics

AMSU Global Daily Temps

Watts Up with That?

John Coleman’s Corner

Greenie Watch

Global Warming Hoax

John McLean’s Global Warming Issues

Climate Debate Daily

Vaclav Klaus, Czech Republic President

Anthony Watts Surface Station Photographs

Wisconsin Energy Cooperative

Digging in the Clay

Climate Research News

Hall of Record, The Niyogi Lab at Purdue

Cornwall Alliance

Bob Carter’s Wesbite

CO2 Science

Craig James’ Blog

Middlebury Community Network on The Great Global Warming Hoax


Raptor Education Foundation

Dr. Dewpoint on Intellicast

The Resilient Earth

The Week That Was by Fred Singer

World Climate Report

Right Side News

Climate Debate Daily

The Weather Wiz

Ice Age Now


Science Bits

Science and Public Policy Institute

The Heartland Institute

I Love My Carbon Dioxide

APPINYS Global Warming

Intellicast Dr. Dewpoint

Dr. Roy Spencer

Climate Depot

The Climate Scam

Climate Change Fraud

Metsul’s Meteorologia

Warmal Globing

The Cornwall Alliance

Bill Meck’s Blog

Tropical Cyclone Blog of Ryan Maue COAPS

Climate Police

Global Warming Hoax

Art Horn’s “The Art of Weather”

Climate Audit

Climate Debate Daily

Reid Bryson’s Archaeoclimatology