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Tuesday, December 18, 2007
Real Winter

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

The New York Times Editorial this morning noted correctly:
“A real winter, like the one we’re having this week, means capitulating to the weather. There is no negotiating with a wind-chill of zero, no pretending that the driveway really doesn’t need plowing, no running a few errands without a hat and scarf and gloves. You simply give in and meet the season’s terms. That is part of the pleasure of a real winter.

You feel very resilient for living within its strictness. Yet if you look back in time, you can’t help wondering at the resilience of everyone who lived within winter’s strictness before central heating was invented.

There is no knowing what lies ahead, of course. This could be the start of an epic winter. It could be shirt-sleeves and gnats flying in early January again, for all we know. But if the past few winters here in the Northeast have taught us anything, it is to be prepared to do whatever winter allows at the moment it allows it. That could mean
snowshoeing through the woods on a day like yesterday or playing an improbable - and deeply disarming - round of golf.”

Icecap Note: New York City has experienced the coldest January since 1977 in 2004, the coldest February since 1979 in 2007. December last year was the 3rd warmest on record while this month so far has averaged 5F below normal.  Snowfall for four years straight ending in 2005/06 topped 40 inches for the first time since record-keeping began in the 1870s and a new single storm record was set for snow in February 2006 with 26.9 inches at Central Park.

Also the big storm that hit Canada and the northern US hard this last weekend (see last blog and note from Madhav Khandekar on the impact on Toronto) hit areas to the east very hard. According to the Ottawa Citizen: Ottawa is currently under one of the biggest snow removal operations in the city’s history after Sunday’s massive snowstorm. “It’s no Academy Award, but it was the snowiest December day ever in the capital,” said Environment Canada meteorologist David Phillips. In total, 37 centimetres fell in Sunday’s storm, setting a record for the most snow in a single December day since Environment Canada started keeping records in 1938. The previous record was 30.4 centimetres, which fell Dec. 21, 1977. However, the record for most snowfall in a 24-hour period remains 40.4 centimetres, which fell March 2, 1947. There is now a 75-centimetre blanket of snow on the ground in Ottawa. That’s the most snow that has been on the ground at one time since Environment Canada started keeping track in 1955, said Mr. Phillips. The previous record was 68 centimeters in 1977. The total cumulative snowfall so far this year is 148 centimeters, including almost 90 centimeters in December. At this time last year, only 18 centimeters had fallen.

Posted on 12/18 at 08:11 PM
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Sunday, December 16, 2007
December to Remember (or Forget?) in U.S.

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

It has been a cold and wintry December so far with a series of storms that have brought ice and snow to a large area of the west, central, Great Lakes and northeast. Read an account of the snow and ice amounts compiled by NOAA here. Read about the latest storm here. NEW: See impacts on Canada here.

The first half of the month shows the cold across the northern tier and the warmth in the deep south. As usual, the storms have rolled along the boundary between the cold and warm.

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The snowcover in the United States even before the last two storms had increased so that together with some new snows in Asia, the snowcover across the northern hemisphere, which had been running below normal for much of the fall, had risen to above normal for the first time this year.

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Read more on December, see full size images and read some thoughts about January here.

Posted on 12/16 at 01:52 PM
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Saturday, December 15, 2007
The UN Climate Change Numbers Hoax

By John McLean and Tom Harris in the Canada Free Press

It’s an assertion repeated by politicians and climate campaigners the world over – ‘2,500 scientists of the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) agree that humans are causing a climate crisis’. But it’s not true. And, for the first time ever, the public can now see the extent to which they have been misled. As lies go, it’s a whopper. Here’s the real situation.

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) released during 2007 (upon which the UN climate conference in Bali was based) includes the reports of the IPCC’s three working groups. Working Group I (WG I) is assigned to report on the extent and possible causes of past climate change as well as future ‘projections’. Its report is titled “The Physical Science Basis”. The reports from working groups II and II are titled “Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability” and “Mitigation of Climate Change” respectively, and since these are based on the results of WG I, it is crucially important that the WG I report stands up to close scrutiny.

Consensus never proves the truth of a scientific claim, but is somehow widely believed to do so for the IPCC reports, so we need to ask how many scientists really did agree with the most important IPCC conclusion, namely that humans are causing significant climate change--in other words the key parts of WG I? An example of rampant misrepresentation of IPCC reports is the frequent assertion that ‘hundreds of IPCC scientists’ are known to support the following statement, arguably the most important of the WG I report, namely “Greenhouse gas forcing has very likely caused most of the observed global warming over the last 50 years.” The numbers of scientist reviewers involved in WG I is actually less than a quarter of the whole, a little over 600 in total. In total, only 62 scientists reviewed the chapter in which this statement appears, the critical chapter 9 “Understanding and Attributing Climate Change”.  Of the comments received from the 62 reviewers of this critical chapter, almost 60% of them were rejected by IPCC editors. And of the 62 expert reviewers of this chapter, 55 had serious vested interest, leaving only seven expert reviewers who appear impartial. 

That the IPCC have let this deception continue for so long is a disgrace.  Secretary General Ban Kai-Moon must instruct the UN climate body to either completely revise their operating procedures, welcoming dissenting input from scientist reviewers and indicating if reviewers have vested interests, or close the agency down completely. Until then, their conclusions, and any reached at the Bali conference based on IPCC conclusions, should be ignored entirely as politically skewed and dishonest. Read more here.

John McLean is climate data analyst based in Melbourne, Australia. Tom Harris is the Ottawa-based Executive Director of the Natural Resources Stewardship Project (nrsp.com)

Posted on 12/15 at 07:10 AM
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Friday, December 14, 2007
Lubos Motl on Douglas, Christy, Pearson and Singer Paper

By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame

In the International Journal of Climatology, David Douglass, John Christy, Benjamin Pearson, Fred Singer show, in their article “A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions”, that the previously discussed “fingerprint” predicted by 22 greenhouse-dominated models disagrees with the observed data summarized in 10 datasets.

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For larger image go here.

Their figure 1 show where models said “Good bye” to reality. The models and observations are compatible near the surface. However, about 5 kilometers above the surface (where the greenhouse effects starts to become relevant) in the tropical zones, models predict between 2 times and 4 times higher warming trend than what is observed. Above the altitude of 8 kilometers, the theoretical and empirical trends have opposite signs. The insights strongly indicate that the true mechanisms driving the changes of temperature are not understood and the overall effect of greenhouses gases is being overestimated - between 2 times and 4 times - by all existing models. Note that with this reduction, IPCC’s sensitivity between 2 and 4.5 °C gets reduced to the standard 1 °C climate sensitivity which means that the additional greenhouse-induced warming by 2090 will be less than 0.5 °C. 

Posted on 12/14 at 09:36 PM
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Let the Debate End

Investors Business Daily

While Al Gore trashes the United States for the stalled climate-change talks at the U.N. conference in Bali, science that contradicts his global warming theory continues to roll out. ‘My own country, the United States,” Gore hissed as delegates wrestled in the Indonesia resort with a “road map” for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, “is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali.” As usual, Gore has it backward. The obstruction of progress is the goal of the global warming alarmists. The mandatory cuts in carbon dioxide emissions they support would choke economic development worldwide and take prosperity back decades. But that’s another story for another time. Today we’re here to talk about how science is refuting fearmongers’ claims that man’s burning of fossil fuels is warming Earth in a cataclysmic way.

At the top of our list is a study found in the Royal Meteorological Society’s International Journal of Climatology. Researchers found that many of the computer models used to predict global warming can’t even predict the past. Instead of forecasting the actual small temperature rises in the troposphere, an atmospheric layer 1 to 6 miles above the Earth’s surface, these computer models anticipated a sharp warming trend over the past 30 years. The 22 models the researchers looked at are the very ones the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change used to make its fright-filled predictions of imminent global warming disaster.

Next is yet another report discrediting the global-warming-makes-hurricanes-worse theory. Two oceanographers, whose findings will be published this week in Nature, say warmer oceans might even decrease hurricane activity.Finally, we note a letter sent this week to U.N. chief Ban Ki-moon saying it’s “not possible to stop climate change,” as it’s “a natural phenomenon that has affected humanity through the ages.”

It’s possible that delegates will leave the 11-day IPCC Bali conference Friday without reaching a consensus about what should be in the report’s summary — more evidence that politics, not science, drives the global warming debate. That alone strongly argues for this foolish debate to be ended now, and for good. Read more here.

The press out of Bali today includes coverage of a World Wildlife Fund (WWF) report about the fate of penguin species under climate change. The press reports draw heavily from the press release put out by the WWF to draw attention to their report on penguins, but more importantly, the WWF’s desire for large and immediate carbon dioxide emissions restrictions. From the press reports and the WWF release, things seem bad for Antarctica’s penguin species. But, as is the case with nearly every alarmist issue, the truth reveals quite a different story. In this case, a review of the literature on penguins, climate change, and ecosystem disturbances, reveals a large variety of penguin responses to changing conditions, changes that include in addition to climate fluctuations, a large-scale alteration to the local and regional food chain as industrial whaling and fishery operations over the course of the past several decades have significantly reduced the number of many species, including both predators and prey. This perturbation to the foodweb has likely had large impacts on the resident penguin species and makes isolating or even correctly identifying impacts from a changing climate quite difficult (Ainley et al., 2007). See full story here.

Posted on 12/14 at 09:14 PM
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New England Digs Out after What Was for Some a Record Snowfall

Reuters

New England dug out on Friday from a record-setting storm that dumped 10 inches (25 cm) of snow on Boston, more than the city typically sees in the entire month of December. Thursday’s storm hit hours before the afternoon commute, snarling roadways and leaving some travellers—many of whom left their offices early only to face the storm’s full force on the road—stranded for hours during their trips home. Others had to abandon their cars or sleep in them after running out of fuel, local media reported. More than 400 flights were cancelled at Boston Logan International Airport.

The National Weather Service said the region could expect another blast over the weekend, when a second storm is expected to drop 6 inches (15 cm) of snow and sleet starting on Saturday evening. “It is a powerful Northeaster,” said Charlie Foley, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Taunton, Massachusetts. “The difference in this storm is that it is going to occur during the overnight hours and on the weekend, so we wouldn’t expect it to have the impact that this thing yesterday did.

Thursday’s snowfall set a new one-day record for December 13, and was more than the 7.8 inches (19.8 cm) that typically falls during the entire month of December. Fore more see here.

Posted on 12/14 at 08:54 PM
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Wednesday, December 12, 2007
Snow And Icecover to Spread South Over the Next Week

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

A persistent strong boundary between cold air across Canada and the northern tier states and mild air to the south and southeast has produced a series of ice and snow events that have left nearly a million in the dark across at least 7 states. You can see the large area covered by snow and ice Tuesday morning.

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Over the next week, two more systems will bring more precipitation in this area and in the end expand the area of snowcover to the south.  Colder air will build in behind the latest system, the warmest of the series and then be reinforced later this week with a moderate precipitation event, this one mainly frozen with areas including Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York City and perhaps Boston and Providence. The third system this weekend could become quite a major snowstorm for many areas depositing a foot or more of the white stuff. It is a little early to determine exact track and where the heaviest snow will fall but places from the nations capitol to New York City and Boston could be included although the chances will be greatest inland as is often the case with December storms. Very cold air will follow in the storms wake into the east well into next week. The snowcover by Monday could look like.

image

A warm-up may try and follow starting in the central later next week but warmups after a good snowpack develops in December with feeble sunshine often disappoint. La Ninas are noted for their variability month-to-month when weak and developing southeast warmth when strong. Read why that MIGHT not happen this winter here.

Posted on 12/12 at 05:20 PM
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Monday, December 10, 2007
Southern Hemisphere Ice Cover Remains Well Above Normal

By Alexandre Aguiar, MetSul Weather Center, Brazil

Southern Hemispheres ice cover now is at the same level as last June, i.e., a level seen during the last winter in the Southern Hemisphere. Besides, there are two more millions square kilometers of ice now compared to December 2006. And the large positive anomaly has persisted since September.

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Full image here

Icecap note: In the Northern Hemisphere, the ice and snow cover have recovered to within 1% (one snowstorm) of normal with the official start of winter still more than 12 days away

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Full image here

Posted on 12/10 at 04:40 AM
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Sunday, December 09, 2007
Harvard Physicist Lubos Motl Debunks Real Climate’s Gavin Schmidt about Medieval Warm Period Study

By Lubos Motl, The Reference Frame

What’s important for the readers is not to learn something or compare arguments for various statements and their robustness. Instead, what they expect is their daily prayer, Oh the global warming, you’re so great and holy, and oh the climate skeptics and the climate traitors, they are oh so evil. Gavin Schmidt and others are optimized to write this cheap crap for this kind of people. Gavin tries to indicate that Loehle makes errors in all the five issues mentioned at the beginning. Unfortunately, his criticism is extremely vague and in the cases when it is not vague and where I could try to check his statements, they seem to be demonstrably wrong.

There might be some legitimate criticism in Gavin’s text but I couldn’t find any. The comparison of Gavin Schmidt and Steve McIntyre as “auditors” couldn’t be more startling. While McIntyre always analyzes the finest detail of the reconstructions, he reruns all relevant programs (and does some reverse engineering when necessary), Schmidt builds on superficial, Woit-like defamations and pseudocriticism that he often makes up in which he doesn’t even link to the relevant papers or sources because he probably knows himself that what he writes is not true and it only designed to manipulate with gullible readers.If you realize that charlatans such as Gavin Schmidt are paid for their work while Steve McIntyre must work as an outsider, the state of affairs in the present climate science seems sad, indeed. See more here. Also see this recent post here.

Posted on 12/09 at 02:47 PM
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Saturday, December 08, 2007
Record Cold In the News Around the Globe

Record cold in recent days has been reported in various parts of the globe. Seoul, Korea dropped to -5.3C (22F). Chill reached down to usually balmy Manilla in the Philippines with 19C and lower readings forecast coming. In Bangalore, India, the 12.7C was the coldest since it dropped to 12.2C on November 29, 1991. Temperatures as low as 8C are forecast. In parts of New Zealand where last December was the coldest December on record, record cold has again hit destroying 75% of vineyard grapes.

In the United States, Chicago tied a record of 0F set back in 1972 and 1885 Thursday. On Thursday, it reached a record -15F in St. Cloud, Minnesota breaking the record for the date set in 1936. On Wednesday, a low of -19F in Grand Forks, ND, broke the record of -16F set in 1972.  Thursday, in Wilkes Barre, Scranton, PA it reached 8F, breaking a 31 year record. It dropped to 7 in Monessen, PA, breaking the record of 11F set in 1977. In Coshocton, OH, it bottomed out at 3F, tying the coldest also set in 1977. Meacham, Oregon, the new low of 2F shattered the old record of 14F set in 1954. 

The first week of the month in Boston has averaged 10.9F below normal. The Charles River near Boston froze very early.

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Charles River Frozen Solid 12/7/07. Full size image here.

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Frozen Charles River after fresh 2 inch snow Friday. Full size image here. Images courtesy of Tim Kelley, NECN

An easing of the cold and some southern state warmth is expected most of this week with a series of snow and rain events in between but more cold is on the models after.  We will talk more about December and look beyond this weekend. 

Posted on 12/08 at 04:42 AM
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Friday, December 07, 2007
Beyond Global Warming - An ECOworld Interview with Roger Pielke Sr.

By Ed Ring, Ecoworld

EcoWorld: How would you say that current conventional wisdom regarding climate change has gotten it wrong?

Pielke: In terms of climate change and variability on the regional and local scale, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, the Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) report on surface and tropospheric temperature trends, and the U.S. National Assessment [of Climate Change] have overstated the role of the radiative effect of the anthropogenic increase of carbon dioxide (CO2) in relation to a diversity of other human climate- forcing mechanisms. Indeed, many research studies incorrectly oversimplify climate change by characterizing it as being dominated by the radiative effect of human-added CO2. But while prudence suggests that we work to minimize our disturbance of the climate system (since we don’t fully understand it), by focusing on just one subset of forcing mechanisms, we end up seriously misleading policymakers as to the most effective way of dealing with our social and environmental vulnerability in the context of the entire spectrum of environmental risks and other threats we face today.  For full interview go here.

Roger Pielke Sr. is a retired professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, and a senior research scientist at the University of Colorado, Boulder. Since July 2005 he has written and maintained Climate Science, a blog that serves as a scientific forum for dialogue and commentary on climate issues. With William R. Cotton, he is the co-author of Human Impacts on Weather and Climate (Cambridge University Press, 2007).

Posted on 12/07 at 04:54 PM
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Thursday, December 06, 2007
It is All in the Timing Another Cherry Picking Data Study

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

A new study funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts and conducted by the Vermont Public Research and Education Fund purports to show increased extreme precipitation events—rain and snow—in the United States over the last 59 years, perhaps linked to global warming. It has gained a lot of attention in the states where frequency of such events is reported to have increased substantially, including Vermont, with news stories noting that it was reviewed by two climate scientists, Kenneth Kunkel of the Illinois State Water Survey, and David Easterling of the U.S. Climatic Data Center (both excellent climatologists).

1948 was chosen as a starting point for the study. This ironically was at the beginning of the last cold phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a multidecadal flip flop in ocean temperatures over the entire North Pacific Basin. This cold phase lasted until 1977 when it transitioned to the warm phase which dominated the last half of the study period. This is important because the PDO has a major influence on the frequency of El Ninos and La Ninas and through them the favored storm tracks and thus precipitation. Thus the regime changed from the first half to last half of the chosen period.

This period dependent result is similar to the often referenced but flawed work by Mote (BAMS 2005) which showed a decline in western snowpack from 1950 to 2000, again reflecting PDO shifting storm tracks and NOT greenhouse warming.  His own assistant stated that had the study started earlier in the century, no trend would have been found. That cost him his job.

Ironically Easterling himself was a coauthor of a study of precipitation changes between 1895 and 2000 across the United States published in Geophysical Research Letters in 2003 that found the “frequencies at the beginning of the 20th Century were nearly as high as during the late 20th Century for some combinations of duration and return period, suggesting that natural variability cannot be discounted as an important contributor to the recent high values.” Read more here

Posted on 12/06 at 10:15 PM
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Wednesday, December 05, 2007
Luxury For Them, Serfdom For You

By Gaius in Blue Crab Boulevard

15,000 politicians, bureaucrats, lobbyists, activists, journalists and other assorted celebrities, hangers-on and others have descended on Nusa Dua, Bali in Indonesia to discuss global warming. 

Over the course of the eleven-day meeting, these people will discuss how to limit carbon emissions. These same people will generate an estimated 100,000 tons of carbon dioxide in travel to and from the conference and lord knows how much energy and consumables while they are there. Many of those consumables will, of course, have to be shipped to Nusa Dua, adding substantially to the carbon footprint of the gargantuan meeting. They’ll be staying in magnificent resorts and hotels. Pictures show that Nusa Dua is a veritable paradise, it is according to their tourism people and a magnet for the jet set from all over.

So, while these functionaries plot out how to limit your lives, how to immensely increase the cost of your energy, how to redistribute your wealth on a global scale, they will not be doing so in anything less than plutocratic splendor that emperors of even a century ago could not have dreamed of. But dont worry. They are doing it for all the best reasons. Trust them. They’ll wave from the limousines.  Read more here.

Posted on 12/05 at 08:24 PM
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New Early Season Snow Records Set Across the North

Early seasosn arctic cold brought heavy snows this past few days across the north, setting records in places. The CBC reports the ”Montreal cleanup underway after record early snowfall”.  A record 31.6 centimetres (12 inches) of snow fell on Montreal Monday, more than double the previous Dec. 3 record of 14 centimetres, and it will take a week to clean up. More than 3,000 workers hit the streets of the city Tuesday morning to start clearing away the snow, which continues to fall. Environment Canada predicts another two centimetres for Tuesday. The city has already spent more than $1 million coping with its first major storm of the season, and it’s estimated it will cost $17 million by the time the cleanup is completed.

Further to the south and east, Portland, Maine tied a record for the date set in 1890 Monday when 8.5 inches fell. Elsewhere, Marshfield in Washington County had 18 inches of snow, Lakeville in Penobscot County 17 inches, Island Falls in Aroostook County 16, Brassau Lake near Moosehead 15.7, Farmington 14.7 inches and Andover 13, the weather service said.

To the west in North Dakota, The National Weather Service says the Grand Forks airport had 8.1 inches of snow yesterday, setting a record for the date. And Fargo set a record with 5.9 inches. The previous mark in both cities was set back in 1926. Grand Forks and Fargo also had record snowfall last Saturday.

Posted on 12/05 at 07:19 PM
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Sunday, December 02, 2007
For US, Carbon Dioxide Ranks Last Among Climate Factors and is Decreasing

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

The now familiar plot of the US climate network since 1895 shows a cyclical pattern with a rise from 1895 to a peak near 1930 and decline into the 1970s and then another rise with an apparent peak around 2000. Note the minor warming from the peak in 1930 to the peak in 2000.

image

The short term fluctuations are driven by factors such as ENSO and volcanic eruptions. The longer term cycles are mainly driven by cycles in the sun and oceans although changes in the last half century have been increasingly blamed on anthropogenic factors. Lets look at the three longer term factors mentioned and how well they atcually correlated with the observed temperatures.

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See full size table here.

Clearly the US annul temperatures over the last century have correlated far better with cycles in the sun and oceans than carbon dioxide. Whatsmore, this correlation with carbon dioxide seems to be weakening further in the last decade. Read full details about how this analysis was done here.

Posted on 12/02 at 03:33 AM
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