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Thursday, May 01, 2008
Late and Early Snows

Record April Snowfall

A series of early spring snow storms have dropped unusually heavy snowfall across a large portion of the Red River Valley and Minnesota lakes country. This has resulted in record or near record snow totals for the month of April. See some amazing April totals (up to 50 inches near Park Rapids, MN) here. Thanks to Daryl Ritchison
WDAY/Z Meteorologist for the tip.

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See full size image here

On this Milwaukee, WI NWS site, see that up to 120 inches fell in southeast Wisconsin with many all time records.

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See full size image here

In this Australian Broadcasting Corporation story, Australian ski resorts are bracing themselves for a bumper season, after freak snowfalls dumped around 20 centimetres of snow. “May is more usual, and then definitely through the winter months, but at the end of April is still a bit of a surprise.”

Posted on 05/01 at 11:26 AM
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Tuesday, April 29, 2008
2005 Energy Bill and Grain Prices

The 2005 Energy bill mandated that 4 billion gallons of renewable fuel (mostly corn-based ethanol) must be added to the gasoline supply in 2006. That amount rises to 4.7 billion gallons in 2007 and 7.5 billion in 2012. This still represents a small fraction of the estimated 140 billion gallons of gasoline the US consumes every year. But it is the subsidies and tax credits that have made this ethanol market what it is - without government interference, consumer-driven demand would be nothing and the ethanol market would be SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER.

Look at the monthly charts for corn, wheat, and soy (soy shown below) - the line denoting the start of 2006. Notice that all of the commodities were increasing gradually from 2000-2005, but from the beginning of 2006 until the present, these commodities have sky-rocketed. This coincides exactly with the beginning of the ethanol mandate on gasoline.

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See larger image here.

To be fair, we can also see that the number of contracts traded rose significantly in early 2006 and have gone up steadily ever since. Prior to 2006, not many people traded or invested in the grains markets - however, this has changed drastically over the past couple of years. This is contributing to the higher prices as well, because more buyers lead to higher prices (not many are shorting these commodities). Also, there has been tremendous index buying the past couple of years (Goldman-Sach’s/S&P Commodity Index, Dow Jones-AIG commodity index, for example), which is contributing to the high volume and higher prices - these index funds have allowed the general population to “safely” invest in commodities now, a market that used to be only for the brave, bold, and informed. It is clear to see that these two things came together just at the right time to push grains through the roof the past couple of years. However, this would not be what it is, were it not for the government-forced ethanol mandate. read full post and see all three grain charts here.

Posted on 04/29 at 11:10 PM
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Hurricane Forecaster’s Dispute with School Focuses on Global Warming Debate

By Eric Berger, Houston Chronicle

By pioneering the science of seasonal hurricane forecasting and teaching 70 graduate students who now populate the National Hurricane Center and other research outposts, William Gray turned a city far from the stormy seas into a hurricane research mecca. But now the institution in Fort Collins, Colo., where he has worked for nearly half a century, has told Gray it may end its support of his seasonal forecasting.

As he enters his 25th year of predicting hurricane season activity, Colorado State University officials say handling media inquiries related to Gray’s forecasting requires too much time and detracts from efforts to promote other professors’ work. But Gray, a highly visible and sometimes acerbic skeptic of climate change, says that’s a “flimsy excuse” for the real motivation - a desire to push him aside because of his global warming criticism. Among other comments, Gray has said global warming scientists are “brainwashing our children.”

Not only does this internal dispute reveal a bit of acrimony at the end of Gray’s long career at CSU; it highlights the politically charged atmosphere that surrounds global warming in the United States. “Bill Gray has come under a lot of fire for his views,” said Channel 11 meteorologist Neil Frank, a former director of the National Hurricane Center and a friend of Gray’s. “If, indeed, this is happening, it would be really sad that Colorado State is trying to rein in Bill Gray.” CSU officials insist that is not the case.

Gray has been highly critical of a former student, Greg Holland, who is among the most visible U.S. scientists arguing about the dangers posed by global warming. Gray’s comments about Holland include referring to him as a member of a “Gang of Five” that is interested in using scare tactics to increase research funding. His views on the climate - he says Earth is warming naturally and soon will begin cooling - have been applauded by some scientists, particularly meteorologists such as Frank. But they are out of step with mainstream climate science. Read more here.

By Eric Berger, Houston Chronicle

By pioneering the science of seasonal hurricane forecasting and teaching 70 graduate students who now populate the National Hurricane Center and other research outposts, William Gray turned a city far from the stormy seas into a hurricane research mecca. But now the institution in Fort Collins, Colo., where he has worked for nearly half a century, has told Gray it may end its support of his seasonal forecasting.

As he enters his 25th year of predicting hurricane season activity, Colorado State University officials say handling media inquiries related to Gray’s forecasting requires too much time and detracts from efforts to promote other professors’ work. But Gray, a highly visible and sometimes acerbic skeptic of climate change, says that’s a “flimsy excuse” for the real motivation - a desire to push him aside because of his global warming criticism. Among other comments, Gray has said global warming scientists are “brainwashing our children.”

Not only does this internal dispute reveal a bit of acrimony at the end of Gray’s long career at CSU; it highlights the politically charged atmosphere that surrounds global warming in the United States. “Bill Gray has come under a lot of fire for his views,” said Channel 11 meteorologist Neil Frank, a former director of the National Hurricane Center and a friend of Gray’s. “If, indeed, this is happening, it would be really sad that Colorado State is trying to rein in Bill Gray.” CSU officials insist that is not the case.

Gray has been highly critical of a former student, Greg Holland, who is among the most visible U.S. scientists arguing about the dangers posed by global warming. Gray’s comments about Holland include referring to him as a member of a “Gang of Five” that is interested in using scare tactics to increase research funding. His views on the climate - he says Earth is warming naturally and soon will begin cooling - have been applauded by some scientists, particularly meteorologists such as Frank. But they are out of step with mainstream climate science. Read more here.

Posted on 04/29 at 03:55 AM
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Sunday, April 27, 2008
Climate Change and the Human Condition

Sherwood, Keith and Craig Idso, CO2 Science

In the introduction to their illuminating paper, the authors (Zhang, etal 2007) say they previously studied “a long span of Chinese history and found that the number of war outbreaks and population collapses in China is significantly correlated with Northern Hemisphere temperature variations and that all of the periods of nationwide unrest, population collapse, and drastic change occurred in the cold phases of this period.” In their current study, they write that they “extend the earlier study to the global and continental levels between AD 1400 and AD 1900.” This they do by using high-resolution paleoclimate data to explore “at a macroscale” the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the pre-industrial era as discerned by analyses of historical socioeconomic and demographic data.

In describing their findings, the five scientists say their newest analyses, like their earlier ones, show that “cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline.” And they suggest, as they put it, that “worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change,” wherein warm periods were supportive of good times and cooling led to bad times, some of which (in our opinion) could arguably be described as a descent into hell.

Interestingly, after having presented an essentially ironclad case for their finding that warmer periods throughout human history have almost always been more conducive to good times than bad times throughout the majority of the Northern Hemisphere, Zhang et al. conclude their paper by suggesting just the opposite, i.e., that bad times would likely follow any future global warming that might occur, throwing all of their findings to the wind and listing as their reason for doing so the usual litany of unduly-catastrophic consequences that climate alarmists insist will follow any temperature increase that might occur, while stating that “the current high global average temperature (which has never been experienced in the last two millennia) is continuing to rise at an accelerated speed.”

Apparently, Zhang et al. are not aware of the fact that the projected consequences of projected global warming (among which they list negative impacts on agriculture, sea level, tropical diseases, extreme weather and ice sheet status) are way overblown, as may be readily verified by perusing the various materials archived on our website that pertain to these subjects. And they are apparently equally unaware of the fact that the current global average temperature is not the highest of the last two millennia (see, for example, our Medieval Warm Period Project) and that earth’s mean global temperature is not rising “at an accelerated speed.” In fact, mean global temperature has not risen perceptibly over the entire past decade!  Clearly, Zhang et al.’s primary findings are right on the mark, but their abandonment of them in their concluding discussion in an attempt to remain politically correct should be an affront to all serious-minded people, as should their uncritical acceptance of standard climate-alarmist extremism and their two important factual errors. Read full review here.

Posted on 04/27 at 07:10 PM
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Saturday, April 26, 2008
NOAA Employing New Tools to Accurately Measure Climate Change

Encouraging news reported by Anthony Watts who visited Asheville’s National Climate Data Center this week and presented his surface station findings to NCDC and heard about NCDC’s plans to modernize and fix the issues that are making climate change assesssment an impossible task. This press release was issued on the 24th by NOAA. Of course it will be years or even decades before we have critical mass to benefit from the new data although we can hopefully use it sooner to quality check the other sources.

NOAA today announced it will install the last nine of the 114 stations as part of its new, high-tech climate monitoring network. The stations track national average changes in temperature and precipitation trends. The U.S. climate Reference Network (CRN) is on schedule to activate these final stations by the end of the summer.

NOAA also is modernizing 1,000 stations in the Historical Climatology Network (HCN), a regional system of ground-based observing sites that collect climate, weather and water measurements. NOAA’s goal is to have both networks work in tandem to feed consistently accurate, high-quality data to scientists studying climate trends. The CRN is helping to pinpoint the shifts in America’s changing, often unpredictable, climate. “We’re entering a new age of understanding climate change, by adding more sound, reliable data about what’s really happening in the atmosphere and on the ground, “ said Dr. Tom Karl, director of NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Karl, one of the world’s leading experts on climate change, helped spearhead the new climate network’s development.

“Very high accuracy in the data collected is the key to getting a feel for the national trend. That’s what the Climate Reference Network is doing.” Karl said the placement of each CRN station is crucial to obtaining accurate information on current - and likely future - conditions. “All the stations are strategically placed in rural environments away from the influences of nearby urban areas that would confound the interpretation of any changes observed,” he said. See the complete press release.

See Anthony Watts accounts of the two day visit here and here.

Posted on 04/26 at 02:41 AM
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Friday, April 25, 2008
Best Skiing Ever in North America?

By Bill Steffen on WOOD-TV Blog

Across almost all of North America, this has been the best, or one of the best seasons ever for those who love snow. Practically every ski are from Alaska across Canada in the Western U.S. - the Midwest and New England saw plenty of snow; some places reporting all-time record snow. Michael Berry, President of the National Ski Areas Assn. told the AP that “This could very well be a record year”. Pictured is the Brundage Ski Area in Idaho. They just received another 10 inches of snow and they’ll be open a THIRD bonus weekend into early May. This is the first time they have ever had lift service into May. This has been their 2nd snowiest winter ever with 422” so far.

Alyeska, Alaska has picked up 826” of snow this winter! On the summit, they still have 198” of snow on the ground. Timberline in Oregon plans on skiing through the summer on Mt. Hood. They are taking ski camp reservations for early August! They’ve had 780” of snow this winter and still have 237” of snow on the ground at the lodge, where the AM temperature is 20 degrees F. Whistler-Blackcomb in British Columbia is offering skiing into June. They’ve had 389” of snow this winter with a base of 94”. The Alta Ski Area in Utah has had 673” of snow this season. The Snowbird Resort in Utah says they’ll be open “through Memorial Day and maybe beyond!”.

Aspen Highlands in Colorado reports over 400” of snowfall since Nov. 30 (the state of Colorado reported over 25% more snow than average this winter. They are expecting the most runoff from snowmelt in the Colorado River Basin in at least 10 years. The Killington Ski Area in Vermont reported a whopping 282” of snow this winter. Last year and this year were the best back-to-back years for snow there since 1995-97. You may have heard that because of global warming we weren’t going to have any more snow. I can tell you as a meteorologist, first, that ain’t happenin’ now, and second that there will likely be plenty of snow in the coming years for those who want to get your skis on and enjoy winter on the slopes.  Oh if you haven’t had enough winter, you might want to go here. See more here.

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Update: Note from this story that 8 Colorado ski resorts set new records this season. Snowmass, (450 inches), Beaver Creek (430 inches), Crested Butte (422 inches), Monarch Mountain (482 inches), Powderhorn (320 inches), Silverton (550 inches), Steamboat (489 inches) and Telluride (353 inches).

Posted on 04/25 at 06:26 AM
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Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Record Lows Put Deep Freeze on Spring

By Tyler Olsen - Vernon, BC Morning Star

At any charity run or walk, weather can play havoc with the plans of organizers. But in the second half of April, the possibility of snow is, justifiably, confined to those certain scenarios so seemingly implausible as to not warrant a second thought. Not this year indeed. According to Environment Canada, chilly weekend temperatures shattered weather records dating back prior to the Great Depression.

The temperature only reached 2 degrees Saturday, besting (although that word may be inappropriate) the previous April 19 record low-high of 4.4 degrees, set in 1927. A similar record, one dating back to 1923, was put on ice Sunday, with a maximum high of just 6.2 degrees. And that night’s teeth chattering low of -6 degrees beat the old April 20 record of -4.4 recorded in both 1909 and 1957. While no firm data exists, the 10 millimetres of precipitation recorded at an automatic station was likely 10 centimetres of snow and probably set an April record, beating 7.6 centimetres recorded April 4, 1903.

At Environment Canada, Doug Lundquist was busy looking at record after record that had fallen to the nasty April weather. “I’ve looked at all sorts of records from across Southern B.C. and everywhere I look (records) are just falling like flies,” he said. However, Lundquist wasn’t ready to say global warming - or a lack thereof - played a role in the chilly weekend, instead attributing the frigid temperatures and snow to an Arctic front that got shuttled south by a upper low from the north. Read more here.

Also to the south, cold night in northern California are hitting vineyards throughout the region hard. After a long string of unseasonably low nighttime temperatures, officials estimate as much as 10 to 15 percent of Sonoma County’s $400 million crop has been lost to frost damage. The cold weather is also hurting vineyards in Mendocino and Lake counties, where damage to the crop is expected to be about 20 percent.  In Napa County, a spokesman for Napa Valley Vintners says there has been little damage because most growers have adequate frost protection. See story here.

Icecap Note: That arctic trough will make its way into the central and eastern United States by next week putting to an end unusual warmth being enjoyed by many especially in the north central and far northeast where snow and cold dominated the long winter. Expect to see records fall and even some unusually late night-time snows as late as May 1 in some of the northern areas and higher elevations further south.

Posted on 04/23 at 08:36 PM
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As Earth Cools, Data Centers Busy Re-inventing the Past

By Joseph D’Aleo, CCM

Tom Peterson of NCDC in the next Bulletin of the AMS will be co-authoring a paper Study: Global cooling a 1970s myth. In it he tries to downplay the cooling and the coverage and hype it received. Why the efforts to downplay the cooling? Like the Medieval warm period and Little Ice Age, the mid-20th century cold period has been a thorn in the side of alarmists because it implies natural factors at play. And remember a lot of the cooling came during the post World War II boom.

Mann did his best to do away with the Medieval Warm Period and his band of merry men are still trying to find proof it didn’t exist despite the steady stream of peer review papers that suggest it did and was not confined to Europe but was worldwide. CO2Science has done an excellent job collating those studies here while World Climate Report has done due diligence finding evidence not only that the Little Ice Age was real but was global (see latest here).

DATA CENTERS CONSISTENTLY ADJUST OLD DATA YET DOWNPLAY URBAN AND LOCAL FACTORS

In 2007, NCDC announced their latest “upgrade” to their USHCN data base that eliminates the Karl (1988) urban adjustment in the first version in favor of a change point algorithm that is supposed to detect changes in siting and urbanization. It is totally unclear how this method which looks for inflection points (sudden changes) in data trends would be able to detect and adjust for a town or city which slowly grows to expand its heat island to the airport often built on the outskirts of a town. Their new algorithms warmed the early 1900s, cooled slightly the middle 1900s and warmed the last decade. The result of this is that the peak in 2000 is higher relative to the peak in 1930 in the initial analysis. The changes made the US data look more like the global data with less of a dip down in the mid century and more recent warming. A little while back, NASA, announced that 2007 was the second warmest year on record tied with 1998 based on alterations to their adjustments (a very regular process it appears based on attempted analyses by Steve McIntyre) and their increased emphasis on polar regions compared to other data sets. Other data centers and the satellite data sets suggested it ranked much lower.

The national centers with their GISS, GHCN and CRU data bases do little to adjust for urbanization and local factors. The IPCC has bought into this despite the fact their have been numerous peer-reviewed papers that suggested contamination by urbanization, land use changes, station dropout (2/3rds of the world’s stations, mostly rural), missing data (again smaller stations), changes in siting, poor siting (a bigger problem than anyone imagined based on the good work of Anthony Watts and his volunteers) may be responsible for 30-50% of the warming of the last century. Tom Peterson’s 2003 work is responsible for most of the data centers downplaying urbanization. This study concluded: “Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures.” It along with papers by Hadley’s David Parker in 2004 and 2006, which stated “globally, temperatures over land have risen as much on windy nights as on calm nights, indicating that the observed overall warming is not a consequence of urban development” were highly influential in the IPCC’s attribution analysis and modeling in AR4 and the decisions on how to handle urban data by NCDC (GHCN, USHCN), NASA (GISS) and Hadley CRU).

In this analysis in August 2007 by Steve McIntyre on Climate Audit, he accessed and worked with the data Peterson used in his analysis to show how urban differs markedly from rural data and is undoubtedly contaminating attempts to determine climate trends.

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Read much more on this issue including more detail on Steve McIntyre’s analysis, a post by Roger Pielke Sr. on this same issue with a focus on Parker’s work and additional thoughts and comments and charts in this PDF here

Posted on 04/23 at 01:17 AM
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Monday, April 21, 2008
CO2 Constraints Have Major Global Security Impacts

By William Yeatman, Times Dispatch Columnist

Seventeen years ago, post-Soviet Russia was a geopolitical doormat, too poor and weak to exert much influence beyond its borders. This month, at an international summit in Romania, Russia intimidated Western Europe into scuttling a proposal for NATO expansion. Historically, only war has caused rapid, profound shifts in the European balance of power. Russia’s rise, however, has a less malignant, if more bizarre, origin: German environmentalism.

Two decades of the world’s most stringent environmental regulations have made Germany, Europe’s largest economy, increasingly energy dependent on Russia, the world’s largest exporter of natural gas. That’s how Russian President Vladimir Putin persuaded a coalition of West European nations to oppose a proposal that would have expanded NATO, despite the fact that Russia isn’t even a member of the trans-Atlantic military alliance. In the aftermath of the Soviet Union’s collapse, Germany’s electricity sector enjoyed energy independence, thanks to extensive coal reserves and a large nuclear industry.

In the time since, coal and nuclear power have fallen afoul of the environmental movement, their regulatory burden has increased, and they have gone into decline. Coal has been targeted because its combustion releases the most greenhouse gas of any fossil fuel and Germany is a global leader in the rush to “do something” about climate change. In 1995, it passed sweeping emissions reductions into law, and the German legislature adopted the Kyoto Protocol in 2002. In this regulatory environment, investment in new coal-fired power plants is unthinkable. Nuclear power emits zero greenhouse gas, but most environmentalists oppose it because the waste it produces is difficult to store. In 2000, they prevailed upon the German government to issue a moratorium on new nuclear power plants. By 2022, nuclear will have been phased out.

Coal and nuclear power may have become unfashionable, but Germans still needed electricity. Like every nation, Germany aspires to economic growth, which requires ever more energy. In fact, Germany could have supplied much of its own natural gas needs with domestic reserves from the northwestern state of Niedersachsen, home to 9 trillion cubic feet of gas. However, this energy is off-limits because environmental regulations have curtailed the complete exploration and development of the area. Instead, Germany has met its growing demand with natural gas imports from Gazprom, a state-owned enterprise that has a legal monopoly on all natural gas exports from Russia. Imports have skyrocketed since the Cold War, and Russia now supplies more than 40 percent of German gas consumption. Read more here.
William Yeatman is an energy policy analyst at the Competitive Enterprise Institute.

On the topic of Russian Energy see the book By Michael Economides and Donna D’Aleo (my daughter) “From Soviet to Putin and Back, The Dominance of Energy in Today’s Russia” here.

Posted on 04/21 at 04:15 AM
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Sunday, April 20, 2008
Surfacestations Update

By Anthony Watts, Watts Up With That

I’ve recently updated the http://www.surfacestations.org website with the latest surveys and numbers. We have 534 stations surveyed. Here is where we stand now with USHCN station surveys:

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Ratings in chart based on Climate Reference Network Rating Guide - adopted from NCDC Climate Reference Network Handbook, 2002, specifications for siting (section 2.2.1) of NOAA’s new Climate Reference Network. CRN categories 4 and 5 which total 69% of stations sited, have errors greater than 2C. See more here.

Posted on 04/20 at 05:59 AM
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Global Temperature Report - March 2008

By The University of Alabama in Huntsville

The La Nina cooling of the tropical atmosphere continued in March, with temperatures in the tropics falling to their coldest seasonally-adjusted temperature (-0.49 C below the 20-year average for March) since the La Nina of March 1989, according to Dr. John Christy, a professor of atmospheric science and director of the Earth System Science Center (ESSC) at The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). Tropical temperatures in March 1989 dropped -0.72 C (1.3 degrees Fahrenheit) below seasonal norms.

March temperatures (preliminary):
Global composite temp.: +0.09 C (about 0.16 degrees Fahrenheit) above 20-year average for March.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.43 C (about 0.77 degrees Fahrenheit) above 20-year average for March.
Southern Hemisphere: - 0.25 C (about 0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) below 20-year average for March.

See the data here.

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Icecap Note: See the warmth in Asia where extreme cold spread unusually far south this winter with heavy snow, leaving northern areas with less snow and cold. Snowmelt came early north and south. Anomalies this month are nearer normal there with very cold weather in Siberia and warm in central China. Note the cold North America temperatures where snowpack persisted. NOAA noted for the United States, the average temperature in March 2008 was 42.2 F. This was -0.4 F cooler than the 1901-2000 (20th century) average, the 52nd coolest March in 114 years.

Posted on 04/20 at 04:37 AM
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Saturday, April 19, 2008
Our Climate Numbers Are a Big Old Mess

By Patrick Michaels, Wall Street Journal

President George W. Bush has just announced his goal to stabilize greenhouse-gas emissions by 2025. To get there, he proposes new fuel-economy standards for autos, and lower emissions from power plants built in the next 10 to 15 years. Pending legislation in the Senate from Joe Lieberman and John Warner would cut emissions even further – by 66% by 2050. No one has a clue how to do this. Because there is no substitute technology to achieve these massive reductions, we’ll just have to get by with less energy.

The earth’s paltry warming trend, 0.31 degrees Fahrenheit per decade since the mid-1970s, isn’t enough to scare people into poverty. And even that 0.31 degree figure is suspect.

For years, records from surface thermometers showed a global warming trend beginning in the late 1970s. But temperatures sensed by satellites and weather balloons displayed no concurrent warming. These records have been revised a number of times, and I examined the two major revisions of these three records. They are the surface record from the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the satellite-sensed temperatures originally published by University of Alabama’s John Christy, and the weather-balloon records originally published by James Angell of the U.S. Commerce Department.

The two revisions of the IPCC surface record each successively lowered temperatures in the 1950s and the 1960s. The result? Obviously more warming – from largely the same data. The balloon temperatures got a similar treatment. While these originally showed no warming since the late 1970s, inclusion of all the data beginning in 1958 resulted in a slight warming trend. In 2003, some tropical balloon data, largely from poor countries, were removed because their records seemed to vary too much from year to year. This change also resulted in an increased warming trend. Another check for quality control in 2005 created further warming, doubling the initial overall rate. There have been six major revisions in the warming figures in recent years, all in the same direction. Read much more here.

Posted on 04/19 at 06:55 PM
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Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Anniversary for Icecap

By Joseph D’Aleo

This month marks the first anniversary for Icecap. We have been growing steadily, almost exponentially. We had 500,000 hits in 2007 and 2,000,000 already in 2008. Unlike the alarmist blogs with blank checks from large environmental public relations corporations and foundations to spread the Gospel according to Gore, the climate realist blogs depend on small contributions from their readers. We received a large enough contribution from one private investor to get the site off the ground last year and incorporate. Since then we have been counting on donations from you our readers. Thanks to all of you who have donated over the last year.

It is for the most part a one man show like most blogs. I have to pay the bills so must do other projects, consulting, forecast and business development but try and put a few hours each day into keeping Icecap updated.  Hopefully the site will continue to grow and donations will allow me to spend more and more time on writing blogs, and upgrade the site and I believe importantly, involve more of our experts on our site and support their efforts in the community on getting the truth heard.

Al Gore has his trained robots out there spreading his flawed message. Unfortunately his movie and many of our schools are indoctrinating and frankly frightening students into believing life as we know it is in jeopardy from this warming (never mind it stopped 10 years ago). Already the minor unneccesary steps taken have driven oil and food prices up to record levels (food prices reported to show the greatest increases in 17 years). Some of the proposed legislation in congress and steps taken or planned in the states threaten to put millions our of work and drive the costs of energy and food up sky high affecting the people who can least afford it the most.  Suggestions how to best fight these actions are always welcomed.  We will do our best to get the true story to you.

Our members and guest bloggers all acknowledge man plays a role in the climate through urbanization (population grew from 1.5 to 6.5 billion since 1900), land use changes like deforestation and to a small degree through our addition of gases and aerosols). We don’t trust the surface station data where siting of the majority of stations has been shown by Anthony Watts and his team of volunteers and Roger Pielke Sr. to be poor or very poor with a significant warm bias. We don’t trust the ever hanging adjustments made to the raw data by NOAA, GISS and Hadley. Thankfully we have satellite and buoy data as ground truth. They will show us when Hansen is out of line.  We think and have shown the sun and oceans play a far more important role that is intentionally ignored because we can’t control or regulate them and make money from those efforts.

The $5 billion spent on global warming research and climate modeling should be spent instead on trying to understand the various ways the sun and oceans change and affect our climates. Understanding these factors will help us do a better job forecasting where climate really will be heading. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center years ago decided climate models were the way to go and could be relied on to forecast the climate many months into the future, Over time, they recognized that the statistical models based on ENSO and other factors verified better because these climate models had issues forecasting the ocean changes (and solar influences) and they changed their focus to those statistical models, downplaying their climate models. I firmly believe statistical approaches using the PDO, AMO and solar cycles can do a better job in predicting future decades than the climate models. Also a better understanding of the sun’s real forcing and ocean processes at work would make the climate models in time more reliable. 

The science is not settled, there is no consensus. As Michael Crichton said it so well “Historically the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels: it is a way to claim to avoid debate by claiming the matter is already settled.” George Orwell said “In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth become revolutionary”. Revolution anyone?

Please help support Icecap and the other blogs often linked to here who are presenting the other side of the story the mainstream media refuses to report on so you can make informed decisions.

Posted on 04/15 at 05:02 PM
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Sunday, April 13, 2008
Hurricane Season 2008

By William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach, Colorado State University

In case, you missed it, Dr. Gray’s and Dr. Klotzbach’s 2008 April Hurricane Season Forecast is now available on-line. Please see the full April technical discusssion and forecast here. See the U.S. Landfalling Probability home page here. Here is a brief excerpt:

Information obtained through March 2008 indicates that the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season will be much more active than the average 1950-2000 season. We estimate that 2008 will have about 8 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 15 named storms (average is 9.6), 80 named storm days (average is 49.1), 40 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 4 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 9 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 135 percent of the long-period average. We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2008 to be approximately 160 percent of the long-term average. We have increased our seasonal forecast from early December. We forecast a probability of U.S. landfall at 95% (climatology is 84%), Gulf Coast 77% (climatology is 60%) and East Coast from Florida North 78% (climatology 61%).

This is the 25th year in which the CSU Tropical Meteorology Project has made forecasts of the upcoming season’s Atlantic basin hurricane activity. Our research team has shown that a sizable portion of the year-to-year variability of Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity can be hindcast with skill exceeding climatology. These forecasts are based on a statistical methodology derived from 58 years of past data and a separate study of analog years which have similar precursor circulation features to the current season. We believe that seasonal forecasts must be based on methods that show significant hindcast skill in application to long periods of prior data. It is only through hindcast skill that one can demonstrate that seasonal forecast skill is possible. This is a valid methodology provided that the atmosphere continues to behave in the future as it has in the past.

Dr. Gray spoke at the Weather Conference in thr Bahamas as he does each year on hurrricanes and touched on global warming. Each year, there is some alarmist also present to counter Bill and all the other hurricane experts who agree with him. This year it was Tom Knutsen. See his arrogant and frankly weak dismissal of Dr. Gray’s compelling arguments that the variances of the thermohaline circulations are the primary control of the climate cycles and that we can not properly model the climate with all the complexities and greatly overstate the importance of CO2 (Bill’s full presentation soon to be visible on the Heartland ICCC conference web site) and defense of the climate models here.

Posted on 04/13 at 04:00 AM
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Friday, April 11, 2008
Love that Dirty Water

By Art Horn, The Art of Weather

Things are really getting strange out there. Here’s how it all started. Last year the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that carbon dioxide is a dangerous pollutant. This was an amazingly stupid ruling. In doing so they gave the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) the legal power to control it’s emission into the atmosphere from cars, trucks and you name it probably lawn mowers, charcoal grills and cigarettes. Now the Attorney General of the State of Connecticut Richard Blumenthal is suing the EPA to make them regulate the emission of carbon dioxide from Connecticut vehicles. Actually it’s Connecticut and about 17 other states that are doing this, of course the movement started in Massachusetts where Michael Dukakis learned that dirty water can lose you a presidential election a few years back.

The crazy part of all of this is that the Supreme Court made such a terrible ruling about CO2 in the first place. Carbon dioxide is NOT A POLLUTANT! Al Gore will tell you it is but he got a D and a C in the only intro science classes he took at Harvard so he is hardly the one to listen to. Besides he has a company in England, Generation Investment Management that makes money by scaring people about global warming. By the way do you know what a nursery will do to increase plant growth in their green houses? They pump it full of carbon dioxide, three times the levels that exist in the atmosphere. How can something that makes things grow be “a dangerous pollutant”. The answer is it can’t! Carbon dioxide is essential for life on our planet. Carbon dioxide gives and makes life possible. If carbon dioxide levels drop below 200 parts per million things stop growing. Carbon dioxide is plant food not poison, unbelievable. So something that makes life possible on our planet is now pollution apparently because it comes out of an exhaust of a car or some other motor that burns fossil fuels.

Well guess what else comes out of the exhaust of a car, yup water vapor. Oh it’s not very much, just a small amount but it’s still there. So what are we to do, I know lets call that pollution too! After all it makes things grow just like carbon dioxide. It’s at the root of all life on Earth just like carbon dioxide so what the hell let’s get water on the pollution list as well. We can regulate water with government laws made by attorney “generals” that circumvent the legislature with lawsuits so they can make their own laws. This is how much sense the Supreme Courts ruling makes. If you’re going to call carbon dioxide pollution apparently you must add water vapor to the list as well if not now then somewhere in the future. This is the twisted logic the Supreme Court of the United States has given us. We are dealing with a brave new world of global warming hysteria that defies historical common sense. Is this what they warned us about when the stories years ago talked about the dumbing down of America? Love that dirty water. Remember the song from the 60s? It was written about the Charles River in Massachusetts where it all began.  See the pdf here

Posted on 04/11 at 03:50 AM
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